There’s been a good deal of talk on these pages (especially on the Fangraphs side) about trusting in rest of season projections of late. Brett Talley talked about this a little on Monday, and despite Justin Verlander trying his very best to shred Brett’s point to pieces, it still stands – ROS projections are a very effective tool, and using them with a little bit of your own analysis (match ups, weather, and so on) can provide real value.
Should we be less trusting when it comes to young players, though? It seems that projection systems would struggle more in translating minor league stats than major league ones. I don’t have the data chops to determine to what degree that’s true, but it certainly makes sense logically – there’s a lot more noise happening at the minor league level, and the difficulty gets turnt up in the majors.
This is an important question today, because there are a handful of relatively unproven names on the docket. Here are the set-ups and Steamer ROS projections:
Jesse Hahn (RHP, SD at home v SEA) – 4.32 ERA, 4.22 FIP, 7.5 K/9
Andrew Heaney (LHP, MIA at home v NYM) – 3.90 ERA, 3.82 FIP, 7.4 K/9
Chase Anderson (RHP at home v MIL) – 4.19 ERA, 4.20 FIP, 7.3 K/9
Yohan Pino (RHP, MIN at home v CWS) – no projection, because he’s a 30-year-old making his major league debut
Basically, regardless of performance to date or in the recent minors, the effect of regression is enough to push these youngsters to somewhere just below the league average marks.
The Daily Five
Andrew Heaney – $12,664
Let’s just say I’m a believer in Heaney. I have shares in multiple leagues and am buying in today at a relatively fair price. He draws the Mets, who have a 24.8 percent strikeout rate and just a .302 wOBA against lefties, and he’s getting the nod at home, a pitcher-friendly environment. He struck out 29 percent of batters at AAA this year and walked just two of 93 batters faced there, a small sample (four starts) but an impressive one nonetheless.
Jesse Hahn – $11,919
Not to overdo the youngsters, but there’s a reason I chose this topic today, after all. Hahn is pitching in Petco, which should be the first point in the favor of any arm. He also draws the Mariners, who have just a .300 wOBA against righties and strikeout 21.7 percent of the time. To back up this thinking, Vegas has the over/under at just 7, with the Padres as a favorite.
White Sox stack – Yohan Pino may have had decent numbers in the minors this year and last, but there’s a reason he hasn’t cracked the majors at 30. The White Sox, meanwhile, are the No. 7 offense against righties and Vegas taps this one for an over/under of 8.5, the second highest on the day.
Jose Abreu – $8,662
Conor Gillaspie – $4,242
Adam Dunn – $5,195
Alexei Ramirez – $6,067
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