Daily Fantasy Strategy — June 8 — For Draftstreet

In the past week or so, we’ve looked at a couple of different ways to evaluate an opponent from a starting pitcher’s perspective. First, with an offense’s fantasy output as the measure, and then with a rough approximation of a pitcher’s output against an offense.

For today, I had the time to actually pull all of the game logs so far in 2014, allowing me to break down the actual, not implied, production of pitchers against each offense in baseball. Those tables are after the jump, should probably be bookmarked and will probably be updated in this space once a month moving forward.

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Right-Handed Starters

Opp N AVG MED SD SD1- SD1+
SDP 50 8.86 9.625 5.80 3.06 14.66
CHC 47 8.32 8.75 5.26 3.07 13.58
ATL 50 8.29 8.125 5.53 2.76 13.82
HOU 42 8.27 7.375 5.45 2.82 13.71
PHI 45 8.03 8 5.81 2.22 13.84
MIA 47 7.76 7 5.25 2.51 13.01
WSN 46 7.67 8.085 5.51 2.16 13.17
CHW 46 7.58 7.5 4.70 2.87 12.28
ARI 50 7.47 7.25 5.28 2.19 12.75
CIN 45 7.46 6.75 5.50 1.97 12.96
BOS 39 7.42 7.25 5.43 1.99 12.84
PIT 55 7.18 7.58 5.78 1.40 12.96
MIN 43 6.89 6.42 5.11 1.79 12.00
NYM 49 6.88 6.5 5.11 1.78 11.99
TEX 45 6.77 7.67 6.23 0.54 13.00
SEA 36 6.45 6.67 5.52 0.93 11.97
NYY 39 6.40 6 5.05 1.35 11.45
LAA 37 6.23 6.33 6.02 0.21 12.24
TBR 44 6.10 6.75 5.22 0.89 11.32
KCR 45 6.09 4.83 5.85 0.24 11.94
MIL 49 6.01 4.83 5.98 0.02 11.99
BAL 45 5.98 6.25 4.98 1.00 10.97
SFG 39 5.95 5 5.33 0.61 11.28
TOR 44 5.89 5.125 5.49 0.41 11.38
STL 47 5.88 5.5 4.55 1.33 10.43
CLE 42 5.41 5 5.13 0.28 10.54
DET 41 5.08 5.58 6.40 -1.32 11.47
COL 43 4.54 5.17 6.87 -2.33 11.42
OAK 43 4.32 4.5 6.50 -2.18 10.82
LAD 48 4.18 4.625 4.81 -0.63 8.99

Yup, the Padres look like a great streaming option with a righty on the hill no matter how you slice it, and despite the Braves’ reputation as a solid team, you’re pretty safe in starting a right-hander against them based on the numbers.

Left-Handed Starters

LAD 15 9.24 9.25 5.09 4.15 14.33
SDP 12 9.05 8.05 5.18 3.87 14.23
PHI 15 8.73 8.45 4.05 4.67 12.78
CIN 15 8.51 8.00 6.05 2.45 14.56
ATL 10 8.50 9.25 6.33 2.16 14.83
TBR 19 8.44 8.75 6.41 2.03 14.84
MIN 17 8.29 7.50 5.70 2.59 13.98
SEA 25 8.07 6.50 6.07 2.00 14.14
CHW 17 8.06 7.50 6.66 1.41 14.72
PIT 6 7.66 7.38 3.88 3.78 11.54
STL 16 7.39 6.00 5.35 2.04 12.74
DET 17 6.42 5.85 7.59 -1.17 14.00
HOU 21 6.36 8.35 5.72 0.64 12.08
KCR 17 6.24 7.00 4.79 1.44 11.03
CLE 20 6.23 7.00 5.44 0.79 11.67
NYY 22 6.20 5.23 5.51 0.69 11.71
NYM 13 6.12 6.25 6.45 -0.33 12.57
WSN 14 5.79 5.30 6.84 -1.05 12.63
MIA 15 5.77 3.60 6.79 -1.02 12.56
BOS 22 5.72 6.93 4.82 0.89 10.54
MIL 14 5.65 6.18 4.98 0.67 10.62
OAK 19 5.43 5.50 7.27 -1.84 12.70
SFG 24 5.40 5.98 5.05 0.35 10.44
ARI 14 5.29 3.05 6.35 -1.06 11.63
LAA 24 5.10 4.85 5.07 0.04 10.17
COL 19 5.07 5.50 4.42 0.66 9.49
BAL 15 5.05 5.95 4.47 0.57 9.52
CHC 12 4.93 4.38 6.11 -1.18 11.04
TOR 19 4.46 3.60 4.92 -0.46 9.38
TEX 17 4.08 5.50 6.91 -2.83 10.99

As it turns out, the Dodgers aren’t all that dangerous against southpaws – we knew that, but the degree to which they appear to be a relatively safe play is shocking (though I’m still not trusting Jorge de la Rosa at Coors today). The Tigers, meanwhile, are the kings of volatility, so pick your lefties carefully against them.

The Daily Five
Jordan Zimmermann – $15,487
We mentioned the Padres complete inability to hit righties, and Zimmermann draws them at Petco Park with roughly a median price tag attached to him. It’s tough not to like that setup for profit – even if you split the difference between Zimmerman’s 6.39 average and the 8.86 points San Diego normally surrenders to righties, you get 7.63 points and about $2,000 per point. That’s conservative.

Chase Anderson – $10,985
This one’s risky business and is predicated on saving money at the low end to afford more high-upside hitters on what should be a good day for offense. Anderson has been solid so far despite some long ball issues, and his strikeout upside is higher than what he’s shown through four outings. The Braves generally oblige against righties. This one’s not for the weak stomached though, I don’t think, but if you pass here you’re looking at a trio of $15K-plus arms.

Indians stack – No, Cleveland hasn’t done all that well against lefties, but most lefties aren’t Joe Saunders, who is terrible despite what his ERA may currently say. The Indians’ four most expensive players today are all lefties, but Michael Brantley and Lonnie Chisenhall, in particular, have hit lefties well so far (in a tiny sample for the latter), and Yan Gomes is, I think, better than he’s shown against them so far. It’s perhaps a counter-intuitive stack but there’s a reason this game has the day’s highest over/under and the Indians are favored.
Yan Gomes – $5,164
Michael Brantley – $7,461
Carlos Santana – $5,522
Asdrubal Cabrera – $5,124

This post, covering one of the leading sites for daily fantasy, is sponsored and made possible by the generous support of Draftstreet. FanGraphs maintains complete editorial control of the postings, and brings you these posts in a continued desire to provide the best analytical information on the latest in baseball.




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Blake Murphy is a news editor at The Score, and is a freelance sportswriter covering baseball, basketball, hockey and more. Think Bo Jackson, without the being good at every sport part. Follow him on Twitter @BlakeMurphyODC.


5 Responses to “Daily Fantasy Strategy — June 8 — For Draftstreet”

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  1. Richard Solomon says:

    I’m sure I’m missing something here – I’m guessing MED is median and SD is standard deviation. But without a background in statistics I’m not sure how to interpret the SD columns. Would you mind explaining it a bit more for the unitiated?

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    • Blake Murphy says:

      Ahh sorry about that! Yes, MED is median and SD is standard deviation. the SD-1 and SD+1 columns show the range of scores in which 68% of outcomes fall (assuming a normal distribution). Basically, it’s a quick gauge for a “common range.”

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  2. Walkswith4balls says:

    Totally unrelated to this post, but would you recommend trading for Votto? I have great CIs in EE and Donaldson, but can’t help to think he would be better ROS than Morneau if power is there. Once healthy I’d send Kluber and Yelich for him. Thanks in advance.

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    • Blake Murphy says:

      Votto’s a tough call. I’m sure the health won’t be an issue but in standard formats he’s actually a bit overrated because his real life value is so immense (among 1B, he ranks 2nd in WAR since 2011 and it’s not even close for #3, but he’s been 5th, 15th, 7th and 38th in 1B fantasy value in that time).

      All of that is to say, he’s still a solid target and has a projected .290-13-46 (avg-hr-rbi) ROS, just don’t pay as if you’re getting real-life Votto unless it’s an OBP league.

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