Daily Fantasy Strategy — May 11 — For Draftstreet

Did you have a good week? I had a good week. Unfortunately, that week could have been better, and that can sometimes be a frustrating part of daily fantasy, but it’s often a necessary evil depending on your situation in life and general disposition toward risk.

What I mean is, I had a handful of double-ups this week where I scored well enough to place in a tournament setting (not across the board but, generally, they were strong enough to expect a return). So, instead of getting the appreciable payout from a tournament format, I was left with “just” the double-up prize.

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That can be disheartening and induce regret, but you have to play the way that suits you best. If you have a sizable bankroll and can handle the droughts that may come with tournament play then by all means, play those and bask in the payout when you win. For the less confident player, the one with a smaller bankroll or one who is simply risk-averse, double-ups and head-to-heads are probably a more favorable option.

Yes, you’ll occasionally kick yourself for missing out on a big pot, but the inverse would be true if you played tournies and “would have doubled up.” Stay within your means, personality and range of confidence.

The Daily Five
Aaaron Harang – $13,391
I think I’m gonna be sick, but stick with me here. The over/under is set at just 7 and the Braves are -180 favorites, so Vegas clearly thinks something’s up here. The Cubs are posting a lowly .286 wOBA against righties so far this season and strikeout 23.1 percent of the time, while Harang has actually been fairly solid, somehow finding his way to strikeouts and trimming well-hit balls. I don’t love it, but the bookmakers are smarter than me.

Robbie Erlin – $11,916
Again, as a baseline we turn to Vegas: The over/under is set at 7 and the game is essentially a pick-‘em. Erlin’s 4.95 ERA masks some strong peripherals, and the Marlins have been just average against southpaws. What’s more, Erlin’s low ground ball rate should hurt less at home, where he has a .253 wOBA against in his career compared to a .380 mark on the road.

Orioles Stack – The O’s draw Jarred Cosart, who is about what he’s shown so far with his 4.50 ERA, right in line with his 4.59 career FIP and 4.52 xFIP. If that seems surprising, it’s because he had a lucky 1.95 ERA in 60 innings last season as a rookie despite a K:BB ratio below one. He’s not awful by any means, but the Orioles, especially those who don’t mind a steady diet of cutters, should be fine.
Matt Wieters – $6,852 (crushing righties)
Nick Markakis – $6,655 (hitting righties well, also feasts on cutters)
Jonathan Schoop – $4,243 (maybe not much upside but has fared well against righties and cutters so far)

Naturally, Wieters and Schoop are sitting today (I wrote this Saturday night). I like St. Louis as a stack today, too, for whatever help that is at this late update.

This post, covering one of the leading sites for daily fantasy, is sponsored and made possible by the generous support of Draftstreet. FanGraphs maintains complete editorial control of the postings, and brings you these posts in a continued desire to provide the best analytical information on the latest in baseball.

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Blake Murphy is a news editor at The Score, and is a freelance sportswriter covering baseball, basketball, hockey and more. Think Bo Jackson, without the being good at every sport part. Follow him on Twitter @BlakeMurphyODC.

5 Responses to “Daily Fantasy Strategy — May 11 — For Draftstreet”

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  1. sgtjunior says:

    Not only sitting, Wieters is on the DL

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  2. Cybo says:

    I feel its worth mentioning that bookmakers set lines with the purpose of keeping the betting as even as possible. Sure looking at the lines they set can be useful but I dont think they’re as useful as one may think. They aren’t trying to predict the outcome just keep the bets as close to 50/50 as they can.

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    • Blake Murphy says:

      That might be true for really big public games but it’s generally not the case for smaller games and the run line. If Vegas releases a soft line based on anticipation of public money, the sharks will jump all over it. It’s a minor consideration probably, but not enough so that looking at the run lines isn’t still a valuable exercise.

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  3. Henry Rowengartner says:

    Totally agree about that feeling of regret when your team gets one of the top scores in a 50/50. I definitely am a 50/50 player myself and build my teams with the intention of getting a good enough score, not the top score. However, I always throw one entry into a cheap large field GPP just in case I have one of those great nights where everything goes right.

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