I’ve mentioned this before, but each week I take the updated Steamer rest-of-season projections and run them through the Draftstreet scoring system to get per game projections for each player. Every day I’ll compare those projections to cost to determine value plays for the day. After the jump I’ve embedded a couple of charts with the updated per game projections for the rest of the season. When preparing each day, you can export the prices from Draftstreet and put them in a column next to each player’s projection (use the vlookup function in Excel to do this). Then just divide cost by points, and you’ve got value for all players.
The Daily Five
Nathan Eovaldi ($10,947) – Eovaldi was really good in six of his first seven starts, but he’s struggled in his last three starts with only seven strikeouts in 15.1 IP along with seven walks. And he’s struggled against three teams that are all below average against right-handed pitching. Those seem like pretty good reasons not to use him. But those three poor starts have driven his price back down to the point where he’s a value. Eleven grand is a good price for a guy with a 3.41 ERA (3.38 SIERA) and a 15.1% K-BB% (league average is 12.2%).
Hyun-Jin Ryu ($15,455) – Ryu has the highest projected total of any starter after I make an adjustment for opponent. The Reds have been the worst team in the league against left-handed pitching this year. And his cost is not too high, so my top projected starter of the day also comes in as the seventh best value.
Yankees Stack – This is a contrarian play. I don’t imagine too many people will be stacking the Yanks against Michael Wacha, one of the better starters going today (second in my projections, 17th in value). When running values, Brian Roberts ($3,635) and Kelly Johnson ($3,683) show up as good values, especially since they will have the platoon advantage against Wacha. Brian McCann ($6,173) also looks like a nice value and has the platoon advantage. McCann will probably hit five in the order and Roberts/ Johnson should be at the bottom of the order. You could bridge the gap with Yangervis Solarte ($5,387) who should hit in between all the lefties.
Blue Jays Stack – Brett Lawrie ($4,554) comes out as one of the best values of the day. Anytime you can get a guy with power at this price against a bad pitcher against whom he has the platoon advantage (Erik Bedard), you have to do it. Jose Reyes ($7,246) and Jose Bautista ($8,491) are also decent values. To round out a full four-man stack, throw in Melky Cabrera ($7,430) or Edwin Encarnacion ($9,642) along with them.
A’s Stack – Yoenis Cespedes ($6,201) and Josh Donaldson ($7,284) have the platoon advantage against Drew Smyly today, and you can make a nice cheap stack with them in it by pairing them up with Kyle Blanks ($2,500) and Derek Norris ($4,444), who also have the platoon advantage. As you can see below, Smyly struggles against right-handed hitters.
|2014||vs L||10.03||1.54||6.50||0.00||32.5 %||5.0 %||27.5 %||– – –||0.51||.160||66.7 %||1.34||2.12|
|2014||vs R||7.81||4.55||1.71||1.30||20.0 %||11.7 %||8.3 %||– – –||1.55||.321||85.6 %||4.72||4.63|
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