Daily Fantasy Strategy — May 7 — For Draftstreet

Troy Tulowitzki has gotten a ton of press lately – rightfully so. He’s been fantastic. It’s almost hard to even see what other players have been up to thanks to the white hot blur in Colorado right now, but while looking away for a few seconds I noticed Brian Dozier. Dozier was pretty valuable last season in fantasy, and he’s on a quest to be even more valuable this season. The fact that he currently has 8 home runs and 11 steals draws most of the attention, but notice his walk rate. It’s a fantastic 16.3% – double his 2013 rate of 8.2%.

It feels like I’ve mentioned the Twins’ offense a lot in this space, but I can’t help it. I’m drawn to patience, and Dozier has had impeccable patience so far. His swing% sits at a paltry 35.4% – the seventh lowest rate in the league. He’s swinging less than he did last year, but his o-swing isn’t terribly different. It appears that Dozier is finally beginning to reap the rewards of his approach. He reaped them last year, although not nearly as much as he has so far in 2014.

ZiPS currently projects him to finish the year with 21 home runs, 27 stolen bases, and 100 runs. Those numbers – thanks to Kipnis’ injury and Cano’s slow start – might make him the best second baseman in fantasy baseball. Not bad a for mid-late round pick.

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Probables Chart

There are a few showers forecasted today for certain areas, but none of them look like they’ll put any games in jeopardy. Vidal Nuno is facing the Angels, and the forecast is fantastic. John Danks hasn’t been very good, but he’s facing the Cubs so something has to give. The Rockies’ fantastic offense isn’t at home today, but they’re facing Colby Lewis and his homer issues in Arlington. And last, but not least, Bronson Arroyo’s career has been chiseled out by outperforming his FIP, but it appears as if those days may be over.

The Daily Five

Angels stack

Mike Trout – $9,134
Howie Kendrick – $7,949
C.J. Cron – $4,852

I’m not a huge Nuno fan, mainly because he has to rely mostly on command and because he’s susceptible to home runs. Using Cron is all about cost. Plugging him in allows you to spend the money required for Trout, and perhaps would even help you work Albert Pujols ($9,513) if you wanted to.

Aramis Ramirez – $6,181

Bronson. Arroyo. Miller. Park.

Tom Koehler – $14,117

I realize how often I pick Marlins’ pitchers. It isn’t by design, it has just worked out that way. Perhaps it’s because I’m a sucker for the staff’s collective velocity. Or maybe it’s because of their home ballpark. Either way, Koehler has been good so far, and he’s facing the Mets.

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This post, covering one of the leading sites for daily fantasy, is sponsored and made possible by the generous support of Draftstreet. FanGraphs maintains complete editorial control of the postings, and brings you these posts in a continued desire to provide the best analytical information on the latest in baseball.




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Landon is a senior writer at The Fantasy Fix. You can follow and interact with him on Twitter (@joneslandon).


6 Responses to “Daily Fantasy Strategy — May 7 — For Draftstreet”

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  1. FeslenR says:

    the Mets have been hitting better of late :)….and I had Koehler against them last time, and he was hit hard. But, generally, yeah, I’d recommend most decent pitchers against them.

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  2. ldavidjm says:

    I’ve never played on Draftstreet so maybe 14k is really cheap for a starter, but even with the Mets today Kohler walks a lot of guys, doesn’t strike out that many guys…

    For (probably) cheaper starters I’d rather have Porcello, Wheeler, Minor, maybe roll the dice with Salazar?

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    • Landon Jones says:

      I don’t have their prices in front of me, but yes anywhere from $10,000-$14,000 is cheap. Koehler has limited upside because he doesn’t strike out a lot of guys, but at his price he doesn’t have to do very much to be worth the purchase.

      He’s also gone at least 6 innings in every start, but one so far, so that’s nice. Salazar has burned me multiple times this year, so I won’t be using him until he strings some nice starts together. And given the Twins’ patient approach and Salazar’s struggles with efficiency, he might be out by the fifth.

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      • ldavidjm says:

        Hah….that’s why it’d be rolling the dice I suppose. No Mauer though and I just have a really hard time believing the Twins are for real

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  3. ldavidjm says:

    Hope you played Koehler! Nice call.

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