Home runs are obviously the best way to pick up points in a Draftstreet contest. You get credit for a point per total base, so home runs are worth four points. But in reality they are worth at least seven points because you also get a point and a half each for the run and the RBI. Unfortunately, it’s impossible to go for power in every slot on a salary cap team. The guys who hit consistently for power are priced accordingly, and you can’t afford to take a consistent power hitter in each slot.
Find yourself a stud or two with a favorable lefty-righty matchup against a bad pitcher and try to get your power there. But elsewhere, you’re going to have to find points in other ways. And one other way is to identify good situations for base stealers. A stolen base is worth two points, but really it’s worth 2.75-3 points because the player has to walk (.75 points) or get a single (one point) in order to attempt a steal.
In the preseason I took a look at the pitchers and catchers who are the best and worst at preventing stolen bases. Below are two charts. One shows the catchers who were the worst at preventing steals according to caught stealing percentage and rSB from 2011-2012. rSB gives the catcher credit for throwing out runners and preventing them from attempting steals in the first place. The other shows the starters who were the worst at holding runners on from 2011-2012 based on stolen bases against them divided by stolen base opportunities.
The Daily Five
Shin-Soo Choo — $8,997
In addition to not being good at holding runners on base, Ubaldo Jimenez is also not good at keeping runners off base. He is allowing almost a hit per inning and is walking almost one every other inning. The probabilities of getting on base and stealing a bag are in Choo’s favor against Ubaldo.
Norichika Aoki — $8,499
Whether it’s Joe Mauer or Ryan Doumit behind the dish in Milwaukee tonight, Aoki will be facing a catcher who is below average as far as preventing steals. He will also be facing Kevin Correia who has a 4.77 SIERA and paltry 9.3% K%.
Craig Gentry — $5,025
With a lefty (Tyler Skaggs) and a righty (Trevor Cahill) going tomorrow for Arizona, Gentry and Leonys Martin are likely to split the center field duties for the double header. Cap contests tomorrow appear to be using only the early game, so Gentry is the play against a rookie left-hander.
Alfonso Soriano — $4,604
This is a really good price for a right-hander facing a lefty (Jose Quintana) in the most homer-friendly park in the league for righties according to our handedness park factors.
Jeff Samardzija — $15,413
The Shark has a sweet matchup today against the cross town rival White Sox. The Sox are currently 29th in wRC+ both against righties and at home. The struggles against right-handed pitching make sense. The only three regulars who hit from the left side are Alejandro de Aza, Jeff Keppinger and Adam Dunn who have batting averages of .243, .210 and .159, respectively. The struggles at home make a little less sense given that their home ballpark is the fifth most hitter-friendly according to our park factors. But they’re third worst in walk-to-strikeout ratio (0.32 BB/K), and plate discipline isn’t affected by the park.
One Day FREE Fantasy Contest – $300 in cash prizes
Daily Fantasy is easy — you pick a lineup that’s good for one night only, and then you’re eligible to win cash. FanGraphs readers are hereby invited to enter a FREE one-day fantasy league with $300 in prizes.
This free contest will be Pick ‘em style drafting. The way Pick ‘Em leagues work is you have eight tiers of players and each tier will have players to choose from. You select one player from each tier. Nothing to lose and it takes five minutes to build a team. You can adjust your roster up until the contest starts on this Friday, at which time your rosters will lock and the Live Scoreboard will be available.
This post, covering one of the leading sites for daily fantasy, is sponsored and made possible by the generous support of Draftstreet. FanGraphs maintains complete editorial control of the postings, and brings you these posts in a continued desire to provide the best analytical information on the latest in baseball.
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