Daily Fantasy Update – 5/27/13 – For Draftstreet

Home runs are obviously the best way to pick up points in a Draftstreet contest. You get credit for a point per total base, so home runs are worth four points. But in reality they are worth at least seven points because you also get a point and a half each for the run and the RBI. Unfortunately, it’s impossible to go for power in every slot on a salary cap team. The guys who hit consistently for power are priced accordingly, and you can’t afford to take a consistent power hitter in each slot.

Find yourself a stud or two with a favorable lefty-righty matchup against a bad pitcher and try to get your power there. But elsewhere, you’re going to have to find points in other ways. And one other way is to identify good situations for base stealers. A stolen base is worth two points, but really it’s worth 2.75-3 points because the player has to walk (.75 points) or get a single (one point) in order to attempt a steal.

In the preseason I took a look at the pitchers and catchers who are the best and worst at preventing stolen bases. Below are two charts. One shows the catchers who were the worst at preventing steals according to caught stealing percentage and rSB from 2011-2012. rSB gives the catcher credit for throwing out runners and preventing them from attempting steals in the first place. The other shows the starters who were the worst at holding runners on from 2011-2012 based on stolen bases against them divided by stolen base opportunities.

Catchers

Name CS% rSB
John Buck 0.229437 -7
Joe Mauer 0.225989 -4
Victor Martinez 0.214724 -3
Michael McKenry 0.206349 -2
John Jaso 0.197279 -5
Ryan Doumit 0.174963 -10
Francisco Cervelli 0.141304 -7

Pitchers

Name SB SBO SB/SBO
Felix Hernandez 48 665 0.07218
Tim Lincecum 48 621 0.077295
Edinson Volquez 38 488 0.077869
Ervin Santana 44 562 0.078292
Mat Latos 42 527 0.079696
Cole Hamels 46 535 0.085981
Ubaldo Jimenez 56 610 0.091803
Josh Beckett 50 468 0.106838
A.J. Burnett 62 562 0.11032
Tommy Hanson 61 411 0.148418

The Daily Five

Shin-Soo Choo — $8,997

In addition to not being good at holding runners on base, Ubaldo Jimenez is also not good at keeping runners off base. He is allowing almost a hit per inning and is walking almost one every other inning. The probabilities of getting on base and stealing a bag are in Choo’s favor against Ubaldo.

Norichika Aoki — $8,499

Whether it’s Joe Mauer or Ryan Doumit behind the dish in Milwaukee tonight, Aoki will be facing a catcher who is below average as far as preventing steals. He will also be facing Kevin Correia who has a 4.77 SIERA and paltry 9.3% K%.

Craig Gentry — $5,025

With a lefty (Tyler Skaggs) and a righty (Trevor Cahill) going tomorrow for Arizona, Gentry and Leonys Martin are likely to split the center field duties for the double header. Cap contests tomorrow appear to be using only the early game, so Gentry is the play against a rookie left-hander.

Alfonso Soriano — $4,604

This is a really good price for a right-hander facing a lefty (Jose Quintana) in the most homer-friendly park in the league for righties according to our handedness park factors.

Jeff Samardzija — $15,413

The Shark has a sweet matchup today against the cross town rival White Sox. The Sox are currently 29th in wRC+ both against righties and at home. The struggles against right-handed pitching make sense. The only three regulars who hit from the left side are Alejandro de Aza, Jeff Keppinger and Adam Dunn who have batting averages of .243, .210 and .159, respectively. The struggles at home make a little less sense given that their home ballpark is the fifth most hitter-friendly according to our park factors. But they’re third worst in walk-to-strikeout ratio (0.32 BB/K), and plate discipline isn’t affected by the park.

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This post, covering one of the leading sites for daily fantasy, is sponsored and made possible by the generous support of Draftstreet. FanGraphs maintains complete editorial control of the postings, and brings you these posts in a continued desire to provide the best analytical information on the latest in baseball.




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You can find more of Brett's work, including his podcast, on TheFantasyFix.com or follow him on Twitter @TheRealTAL.


10 Responses to “Daily Fantasy Update – 5/27/13 – For Draftstreet”

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  1. J says:

    This column would be a lot more helpful if it was published the day BEFORE the games and not day of

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    • Josh M says:

      It was published well before today’s games started.

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      • Hunterfan says:

        That’s not what he said, though. I’m assuming the user is trying to use some of these tips for his roto league (Soriano and Gentry aren’t owned in a lot of leagues) but a lot of roto leagues don’t allow you to make same day changes.

        Hence the complaint.

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      • Eno Sarris says:

        Most daily sites only set up day of, and this is for daily fantasy in particular. These articles will publish at 10:15 am most days, just Mondays will be closer to game time.

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      • Hunterfan says:

        Eno, in Draftstreet, which is specifically what this article addresses, you can sign up for the next day the night before, usually as soon as the last game starts.

        FWIW, I don’t see a reason this article can’t be put up the day or night before, unless the article is going to include specific values for players at sites that are only available “day of” (which this doesn’t.)

        I think such a column put up the night before would be quite good for working folks. That way you can put in your team the night before and make minor adjustments when you get home from work, not try to create a team from scratch with only 30 min before the deadline.

        Of course, it’s not my website, just a comment from the peanut gallery as to when this info might be most useful.

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  2. Madoff Withurmoni says:

    Guys can also get on base via error or fielders choice…..and then get caught stealing, which gives you negative overall points and frequently makes me want to put a fist through a wall.

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  3. djmax101 says:

    I don’t do Draftstreet but this article was spot on – Choo, Soriano, and Samardzija had outstanding days.

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  4. Aaron Borchardt says:

    Agree with Max… great job, Brett.

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  5. Moneyball Don't Lie says:

    I play fanduel but still took your advice on Choo…nailed it. I tend to overanalyze in daily fantasy, so the blunt reasonings in this piece are much appreciated. Keep these coming.

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