Darlin’ Starlin Castro

Mired in a three game losing streak, the Cubs shook things up last week by shifting Ryan Theriot to second base and calling upon top prospect Starlin Castro to assume shortstop duties. Bryan ranked him as the 25th best prospect in the game coming into the season, then introduced you to him on Friday, so let’s not reinvent the wheel and instead focus on what his arrival means for you fantasy owners.

Castro debuted in a huge way, whacking a three run homer in his first big league plate appearance before ripping a bases clearing triple later in the game, making him the first player in history to pick up six RBI in his debut. And that’s on top of being the youngest shortstop in Cubs’ history. It was without a doubt an impressive debut, and as things like that tend to do, it sent more than one owner scrambled to the waiver wire to gobble him up before anyone else did.

CHONE projects a .251/.290/.339 batting line (.280 wOBA by my calculation) with three homers and 14 steals this year, and a projection like that would have him outside of the top 16 fantasy shortstops. Unfortunately for your fantasy team, a big chunk of his value comes from his ability to field a premium position, which does nothing for you unless you’re in a league that counts UZR or +/- (that would be pretty cool).

Even if we want to dream a little bit and say that Castro will instead approach the league average .326 wOBA with 15 or so steals the rest of the year, it puts him on fantasy par with guys like Alexei Ramirez and (not to mix positions, but) Luis Castillo. Basically backup options in mixed leagues or second and third tier starting options in deep mixed or AL/NL-only leagues. However, I look at Castro and think he compares favorably to another NL Central rookie shortstop: Alcides Escobar.

For whatever reason, Escobar has gone from a 20+ SB threat to zero (and just one attempt) through the season’s first month. He says he’s going to steal more, but it hasn’t happened yet. ZiPS sees a .271 AVG with 18 SB and five homers the rest of the way, and I think Castro could give you almost exactly that as well. If anything, I’d expect just a little more pop from the Cubs’ shortstop because of his home park. 20-year-olds are tricky to project, so there’s a whole lotta dreamin’ that has to go on here.

Castro set the bar high in his big league debut, but he’s done a good job of following that up and has reached base in all four games he’s played. If you’re a frustrated Escobar owner, swapping him out with Castro could net you those steals you thought you were getting, and maybe even a little more. He’s owned in just 10% of Yahoo! leagues, so chances are he’s still available in yours as well.