As some of the commenters pointed out in my first look at ADPs on Mock Draft Central, average draft position figures do have their flaws. However, just like any statistic that attempts to measure a certain aspect of a player’s game, or even his overall value, that doesn’t mean we should just ignore it if it isn’t 100% perfect. The information is still much better than nothing. So, that means you will be getting a lot more ADP analysis from me, whether you like it or not (you will LOVE IT)! I will continue on by looking at some of the American League starting pitchers I believe to be overvalued. I am only looking at them on a relative basis against other AL starters, rather than considering their draft round.
Ricky Romero – 9th AL SP selected
About two months ago, I looked a bit more in-depth into Romero, concluding that he was clearly fortunate this past season, but still has a nice skill set that should lead to sustained success. I like him, I really do. But he has been going before Josh Beckett and C.J. Wilson and I don’t think that’s right. Both pitchers have higher strikeout rates and a longer track record of success. Wilson is actually very similar to Romero in terms of peripherals and is moving to a much better park for pitchers. Unless this is a keeper league and you want the much younger Romero, I can’t justify drafting him before either Beckett or Wilson.
Jeremy Hellickson – 13th
This one is no surprise given his ROY victory and sub-3.00 ERA. Obviously, the majority of drafters are unaware of his weak peripherals and the huge discrepancy between his ERA and SIERA/xFIP marks. He is being drafted right ahead of Gio Gonzalez, despite a strikeout rate more than three points lower. Will he improve his peripherals? His strong SwSk% certainly suggests a much higher strikeout rate. So I do think so, but that just means his ERA might land in the high 3.00’s next year, rather than the high 4.00’s.
Ervin Santana – 15th
Amazingly, he hasn’t been written about on this site at all since early August, despite posting the best ERA of his career. Looks like a more in-depth analysis should be forthcoming from yours truly. Beneath that strong ERA though, we realize he has basically been the same pitcher for the past three seasons, yet his ERA has gone from 5.02 to 3.92 to 3.38 from 2009 through 2011. You could directly trace that “improvement” to a steady decline in BABIP and increase in LOB%. He did add a couple more ground balls this year, which is nice, but aside from that, this is the same pitcher. Heck, even his SwStk% hasn’t budged, sitting between 8.4% and 8.5% the last three years! He is getting drafted ahead of guys I would rather gamble on (even at the same price) like Max Scherzer and Ubaldo Jimenez, and I might even prefer Justin Masterson and Derek Holland several more picks down.
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