Edwin Encarnacion: Fantasy Fluke?
It’s hard to find a player who increased his fantasy value last season more than Edwin Encarnacion. For years, he was considered a late-round flyer. The type of player who would breakout and hit 30 home runs one season. But after a promising 2006, Encarnacion went backwards. And by last season, even some of his most enthusiastic supporters weren’t sure if Encarnacion would ever emerge as anything more.
Well, things changed in a big way. He went from fantasy roster fodder, to single-handedly winning leagues. The 29-year-old first baseman slugged 42 home runs and hit .280/.384/.557 in 644 plate appearances with the Blue Jays. Because both players experienced massive breakouts with the same team, Encarnacion’s performance has been compared to Jose Bautista‘s 2010 season. Bautista, as we know, managed to build on that success. Now it’s Encarnacion’s turn to prove he is capable of doing the same.
Like Bautista, it appears the Blue Jays worked with Encarnacion to alter his swing. Jack Moore did a great job detailing how Encarnacion’s new approach was driving his new-found power. Encarnacion altered his follow-through, which allowed him to have a shorter path to the ball. ESPN’s Dave Schoenfield also looked at Encarnacion’s initial success, and found that his new approach led to success on pitches thrown over the outer half of the plate.
That’s significant, because one of the most significant forces behind his breakout was his success to center field. Encarnacion has typically been a strong pull hitter, something even he alludes to in Shoenfield’s article. By altering his mechanics, he was able to take the balls over the outer half of the plate, and drive them to center instead of trying to pull them. Encarnacion managed to mash 12 home runs to center field last season. From 2008 to 2011, Encarnacion hit 11 home runs to center.
At the same time, getting around on the ball faster helped in other areas, too. Encarnacion was able to destroy fastballs. He had a 29.9 pitch value against fastballs last season, making him the fourth best fastball hitter in the game. He was also more selective at the plate. His 13.0% walk rate was higher than normal, but Encarnacion didn’t swing as much, either. Like Bautista, Encarnacion seemed content on waiting for the right pitch. He actually made less contact at the plate than in past years, but made up for it by absolutely killing the ball when he was able to put a bat on it.
But is that enough to justify making Encarnacion the second rated fantasy first baseman? That’s where he rated this season, according to Zach Sanders’ rankings. While Encarnacion is far more risky than Prince Fielder, Albert Pujols, Buster Posey or Joey Votto; there’s still some promising reasons to believe he’ll be able to replicate his success next season. Encarnacion adopted a different approach at the plate, which helped him evolve into a much better hitter. As long as he continues to utilize that approach next season, there’s no major reason to think he’ll suffer a big drop-off. Encarnacion may go later than some of the elite, safer first baseman, but he’s definitely vaulted into their company. He should be valued as such next season.
Hmmm…they both found success in HUGE breakout seasons that no one saw coming. Maybe someone in the Toronto clubhouse has a new brand of “Wheaties” that has turned them into over night superstars.
Damien Cox, is that you?
wow, i’ve never seen so many downvotes here on rotographs
Ya we gave those same wheaties to kelly johnson and yunel escobar and adam lind.
EXACTLY. Well said.
“I think I shall draw a straight line between A and B.”
“But what about those other eleven points?!”
“I…I didn’t even see those! I was too busy staring at A and B.”
I’m NOT suggesting Roids were involved.
Assuming that EE and Bautista are roiding is just as bad as assuming that if two people on a team are using that everybody must be using.
It is entirely possible for a few people to be using performance enhancing drugs while keeping that information away from their teammates.
Jason B, if you’re a Mets outfielder by the same name, maybe you should try some of those Wheaties… Might at least get you over the Mendoza line.
And Edwin didn’t start eating those Wheaties until his 4th season with the team.
I think it’s fairly obvious that he knew when the fastballs were coming.
His plate discipline by month is pretty amazing… by the second half of the year, he was achieving the extremely rare feat of being a (power) hitter with more walks than strikeouts:
Month — BB% — K%
Mar/Apr — 6.9 % — 16.8 %
May — 9.2 % — 16.0 %
June –11.7 % — 17.5 %
July — 20.6 % — 11.8 %
Aug — 12.7 % — 12.7 %
Sep/Oct — 17.8 % — 12.9 %
I don’t know exactly how much faith one should put in such splits, but these are pretty striking.
I’d like to blame injuries for pitchers pitching around EE, but Bautista didn’t get hurt till mid July so it’s not entirely the case.
No real explanation as to July really stands out.
If FanGraphs provided an easy way (i.e. not copying/pasting into spreadsheets and doing the math myself) of just making 1st half/2nd half comparisons, I probably would have just used those splits instead of month-by-month.
Dangers of creating narratives apply, but I’m sure part of it was pitching around EE with no Bautista present. I’m also sure part of it was that pitchers eventually realized he wasn’t just on a month-long hot streak, and started giving him less to hit on his own merits.
But to EE’s immense credit, assuming the things I’m sure about are actually true, he was willing to increase his walk rate and didn’t start chasing bad pitches and striking out more than he had been.
i turned down a trade of matt cain for him a few weeks after the perfect game, i just didn’t think he could keep doing it. so naturally, i’ll draft him this year, and he’ll crater