- FanGraphs Fantasy Baseball - http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy -

Evaluating My Evaluations

For my next few posts, I am going to look back at some of my early season player evaluations, good or bad.

Austin Jackson: Breakout Candidate? 4/3

What I said then:

It is way too early to draw any real conclusions from Austin Jackson‘s start to the season. Most of his production has come from a completely unsustainable BABIP [.563]. Besides the high BABIP, he is also showing improved plate discipline. While the sample size is way too small right now, I would continue to track his K% [21%] and see if he has better control over the strike zone as the season goes on. Any chance for a breakout will be tied to lowering his strikeout numbers.

And now:

Everyone knew that the BABIP was unsustainable and it ended up (.371) almost identical to his career value (0.370). Jackson was able to maintain his lower K% over the course of the season and hit for .300 for the first time in the majors.

Justin Morneau: Is There Any Hope? 4/18

What I said then:

Justin Morneau has not had a good start to his season. His walk rate and power seem to be a concern. His walk rate is not out of place when taking into account his IBBs. His power loss is a concern though. He will just have to play more to see if the power loss continues.

And now:

Monrneau had two months of good power after I wrote the article, but he was not able to sustain the power spike and it dropped as the season went on.

ISO
First 2 months: .291
Last 4 months: .132

Average distance on his HR and Flyballs
First 2 months: 302 ft.
Last 4 months: 269 ft

His ISO was cut in half and his batted ball distance saw a loss of over 30 feet.

The weird thing is that he went on the DL in May and when he came back, he had his best month of the season.

Brennan Boesch’s Disappointing Start to the Season 4/23

What I said then:

Brennan Boesch has been a fantasy disappointment this season. …. I would look for some level of rebound, but he needs to hit the ball with more authority to have the season some people anticipated.

And now:

All Boesch had in him was a dead cat bounce. Horrible season.

Wainwright and Pujols: Rough Starts 4/23

What I said then:

Adam’s 2007 season looks to be a nice season to compare to 2012. The fastball velocities are identical. They are the seasons when he had his highest BABIPs (0.304 and 0.325). Adam had is worst season in terms of ERA (3.90) and WHIP (1.40) in 2007 until this season happened.

And now:

Season: ERA, WHIP, BABIP, Velocity
2007: 3.70, 1.40 ,.304, 89.4
2012: 3.94, 1.25, .315, 90.1

The two seasons ended being almost similar. At the time of the article, his FIP (6.52), xFIP (3.13) and SIERA (3.28) averaged out to 4.31 which is close to his final ERA of 3.94.

What I said then:

Albert has not been living up to his expectation so far this season. Looking over his stats, two values stick out as potential areas of concern, his walk rate and power.

And now:

BB%, NiIBB%
2008: 16%, 8%
2009: 16%, 7%
2010: 15%, 7%
2011: 9%, 6%

4/1/2012 to 4/23/2012: 7%, 3% (2 of his 5 BB have been IBB)
4/24/2012 to 10/3/2012: 8%, 4%

Year: ISO
2009: 0.331
2010: 0.284
2011: 0.242
4/1/2012 to 4/23/2012: .108
4/24/2012 to 10/3/2012: 0.245

Year: Flyball and HR batted ball distances
2010: 313 ft
2011: 303 ft
4/1/2012 to 4/23/2012: 275 ft
4/24/2012 to 10/3/2012: 281 ft

Albert was able to rebound a bit from the beginning of the season, but not even close to his previous seasons. I see an Alex Rodriguez fustrating decline happening with Pujols.

Espinosa and Roberts: 2B Ownership Decliners 4/30

What I said then:

After being one of my favorite stories of 2011, I have quickly soured on Roberts. He will have to hit more line drives and less pop ups for his value to go in the positive direction.

And now:

He was able to increase his LD% and decrease his IFFB%.

Triple slash and BABIP at time of article: .159/.243/.254, .188
Triple slash and BABIP after the article: .249/.307/.381, .283

He rebounded, but he will not flirt with a 20/20 season again.

What I said then:

I see no hope right now for Danny. He needs to make improvement in his plate discipline and/or power stroke to become an everyday player at 2B in deep leagues, not alone 10 to 14 team leagues.

And now:

Espinosa wasn’t able to drop his K% or regain his HR power. He has increase his LD% to help bring up his AVG to around 0.250 to make him a somewhat rosterable option.

Walker and Weeks: 2B Ownership Decliners 5/2

What I said then:

While he [Weeks] was a little lucky in 2011, he has been extremely unlucky so far this season. I would expect his AVG to increase as a few more batted balls begin to fall for hits.

And now:

His BABIP did go from 0.207, at the time of the article, to 0.270 over the rest of the season. It did not get to the .300+ BABIP predicted in the article, but it did improve.

What I said then:

Right now, Neil looks like a Plug-n-Play guy if owned in a shallow league. The high average won’t be a drag and he will get a few counting stats. In deeper leagues, the options available on the waiver wire are probably thin, so his owners may just have to ride out the power slump.

And now:

2012 Marcel prediction (closest projection in PA), 2012 stats:
PA: 578, 530
HR: 12, 14
Run: 68, 62
RBI: 72, 69
SB: 7, 7
AVG: .278, .280

Neil Walker ended up producing just like he was expected to produce. I bet he does the same thing next year.