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	<title>Comments on: Fake Teams&#8217; Prospect Mock Draft: My Team, My Strategy</title>
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	<link>http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/fake-teams-prospect-mock-draft-my-team-my-strategy/</link>
	<description>Daily fantasy baseball analysis and strategy</description>
	<lastBuildDate>Wed, 22 May 2013 06:22:34 +0000</lastBuildDate>
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		<title>By: jdbolick</title>
		<link>http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/fake-teams-prospect-mock-draft-my-team-my-strategy/#comment-783901</link>
		<dc:creator>jdbolick</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 24 Feb 2013 02:49:48 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/?p=41223#comment-783901</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Regarding hype, drafting to trade is risky, but I have done it before where I&#039;ll take a minor leaguer going from a poor park / league and heading to a strong one. I did that with Mike Olt last year and traded him during the season for pieces that helped me win my league, and have targeted guys like Lars Anderson the same way in the past.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Regarding hype, drafting to trade is risky, but I have done it before where I&#8217;ll take a minor leaguer going from a poor park / league and heading to a strong one. I did that with Mike Olt last year and traded him during the season for pieces that helped me win my league, and have targeted guys like Lars Anderson the same way in the past.</p>
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		<title>By: Ryan</title>
		<link>http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/fake-teams-prospect-mock-draft-my-team-my-strategy/#comment-783884</link>
		<dc:creator>Ryan</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 24 Feb 2013 00:58:36 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/?p=41223#comment-783884</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I&#039;m in a keeper league that lets us draft five minor league players a year.  

Here are my criteria:
1. Best available:  pretty obvious

2.  Hype:  This is a big factor I think you forgot.  The more talked about a prospect will be in the coming year, the more likely other owners will know who he is, and the more likely you will be able to include him as a throw in to cement a midseason trade.  

3. Major league readiness:  The closer a guy is to being called up, the more value he has, both for trades (see Hype), and to help you down the stretch when injuries take your veterans.

4.  Starting pitching over hitting:  My league rules happen to favor pitching, both in quality and quantity, but everyone should think about putting pitching first. If there&#039;s a chance that a guy can become my fifth or sixth best starter after a midseason call up, I take it.  You don&#039;t need more than one or two players at each batting position in most leagues, but you can always use more starting pitching down the stretch. 

Matt Harvey last year is the best example of a prospect that met my criteria.  He was a huge help after he was called up, and in the offseason I was able to package him in a deal with Ellsbury to get Cliff Lee and Goldschmidt.

One more rule:  Never draft a pitcher already projected to be a closer or reliever.  There&#039;s already too many uncertanties gambling on closers.  Why would you add the lack of a major league track record to that?]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I&#8217;m in a keeper league that lets us draft five minor league players a year.  </p>
<p>Here are my criteria:<br />
1. Best available:  pretty obvious</p>
<p>2.  Hype:  This is a big factor I think you forgot.  The more talked about a prospect will be in the coming year, the more likely other owners will know who he is, and the more likely you will be able to include him as a throw in to cement a midseason trade.  </p>
<p>3. Major league readiness:  The closer a guy is to being called up, the more value he has, both for trades (see Hype), and to help you down the stretch when injuries take your veterans.</p>
<p>4.  Starting pitching over hitting:  My league rules happen to favor pitching, both in quality and quantity, but everyone should think about putting pitching first. If there&#8217;s a chance that a guy can become my fifth or sixth best starter after a midseason call up, I take it.  You don&#8217;t need more than one or two players at each batting position in most leagues, but you can always use more starting pitching down the stretch. </p>
<p>Matt Harvey last year is the best example of a prospect that met my criteria.  He was a huge help after he was called up, and in the offseason I was able to package him in a deal with Ellsbury to get Cliff Lee and Goldschmidt.</p>
<p>One more rule:  Never draft a pitcher already projected to be a closer or reliever.  There&#8217;s already too many uncertanties gambling on closers.  Why would you add the lack of a major league track record to that?</p>
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		<title>By: jdbolick</title>
		<link>http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/fake-teams-prospect-mock-draft-my-team-my-strategy/#comment-783849</link>
		<dc:creator>jdbolick</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 23 Feb 2013 18:09:07 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/?p=41223#comment-783849</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Not only do pitchers fail more often, but they&#039;re also inherently less valuable than top hitting prospects simply due to the auction cost of available hitters. Additionally, they have more year to year variation and thus the &lt;i&gt;perception&lt;/i&gt; of their future value can change significantly even if their potential really hasn&#039;t. I almost never select pitchers in the early rounds of my keeper leagues (&lt;i&gt;Dylan Bundy with the second overall reserve pick last season was an exception&lt;/i&gt;), and the ones I take later tend to be those with control if not command (&lt;i&gt;guys who avoid the zone rarely learn to pitch within it later, which is why I don&#039;t like Zach Wheeler&lt;/i&gt;). Then during a season I&#039;ll try to trade for high minors pitchers who are &quot;struggling&quot; (&lt;i&gt;Casey Kelly and Shelby Miller&lt;/i&gt;).

For hitters, contact skill is paramount.  You can&#039;t drive the ball if you don&#039;t square up on it, and grooved swings will be avoided as hitters progress (&lt;i&gt;why I can&#039;t stand Mike Olt&lt;/i&gt;). I make some exceptions there when the power is elite, which is why I drafted Stanton and Miguel Sano, but I love a batter who can control the bat (&lt;i&gt;that&#039;s how I ended up with Taveras in both my NL keepers&lt;/i&gt;). Of course it&#039;s nice to have infielders rather than outfielders, but chasing positions often nets inferior talent. I probably wouldn&#039;t put that as high as #2 both because of the potential for later changes and because elite skills are valuable wherever they end up.

Like anything draft/auction-related, though, the most important thing is always to beat the hype. Everyone sees Bryce Harper coming, but you can get an 18/19 year old Jesus Montero or Julio Teheran at the end of the reserves if you identify them as worth rostering before the prospect sites do (&lt;i&gt;this can also mean drafting college players a year before their draft class if they&#039;re truly elite and your league allows it&lt;/i&gt;). Just going by FanGraphs or Baseball America lists means that you&#039;re using the same plan as your competition, whereas digging a little deeper finds gems and gives you the heady feeling of &quot;discovering&quot; a talent, something that helps to dull the frustrating of not winning a league.

AL Keeper: Dylan Bundy, Mike Zunino, Byron Buxton, Miguel Sano, Gary Sanchez, Nick Franklin, Hak-Ju Lee, Blake Swihart
NL Keeper: Oscar Taveras, Javier Baez, Brian Goodwin, Shelby Miller, Tyler Skaggs, Julio Teheran, Casey Kelly, Gerrit Cole, Matt Szczur, Brandon Nimmo]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Not only do pitchers fail more often, but they&#8217;re also inherently less valuable than top hitting prospects simply due to the auction cost of available hitters. Additionally, they have more year to year variation and thus the <i>perception</i> of their future value can change significantly even if their potential really hasn&#8217;t. I almost never select pitchers in the early rounds of my keeper leagues (<i>Dylan Bundy with the second overall reserve pick last season was an exception</i>), and the ones I take later tend to be those with control if not command (<i>guys who avoid the zone rarely learn to pitch within it later, which is why I don&#8217;t like Zach Wheeler</i>). Then during a season I&#8217;ll try to trade for high minors pitchers who are &#8220;struggling&#8221; (<i>Casey Kelly and Shelby Miller</i>).</p>
<p>For hitters, contact skill is paramount.  You can&#8217;t drive the ball if you don&#8217;t square up on it, and grooved swings will be avoided as hitters progress (<i>why I can&#8217;t stand Mike Olt</i>). I make some exceptions there when the power is elite, which is why I drafted Stanton and Miguel Sano, but I love a batter who can control the bat (<i>that&#8217;s how I ended up with Taveras in both my NL keepers</i>). Of course it&#8217;s nice to have infielders rather than outfielders, but chasing positions often nets inferior talent. I probably wouldn&#8217;t put that as high as #2 both because of the potential for later changes and because elite skills are valuable wherever they end up.</p>
<p>Like anything draft/auction-related, though, the most important thing is always to beat the hype. Everyone sees Bryce Harper coming, but you can get an 18/19 year old Jesus Montero or Julio Teheran at the end of the reserves if you identify them as worth rostering before the prospect sites do (<i>this can also mean drafting college players a year before their draft class if they&#8217;re truly elite and your league allows it</i>). Just going by FanGraphs or Baseball America lists means that you&#8217;re using the same plan as your competition, whereas digging a little deeper finds gems and gives you the heady feeling of &#8220;discovering&#8221; a talent, something that helps to dull the frustrating of not winning a league.</p>
<p>AL Keeper: Dylan Bundy, Mike Zunino, Byron Buxton, Miguel Sano, Gary Sanchez, Nick Franklin, Hak-Ju Lee, Blake Swihart<br />
NL Keeper: Oscar Taveras, Javier Baez, Brian Goodwin, Shelby Miller, Tyler Skaggs, Julio Teheran, Casey Kelly, Gerrit Cole, Matt Szczur, Brandon Nimmo</p>
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		<title>By: bcarsley22</title>
		<link>http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/fake-teams-prospect-mock-draft-my-team-my-strategy/#comment-783754</link>
		<dc:creator>bcarsley22</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 22 Feb 2013 20:30:01 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/?p=41223#comment-783754</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I would argue that Carsley&#039;s Baez pick was brilliant.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I would argue that Carsley&#8217;s Baez pick was brilliant.</p>
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		<title>By: DrBGiantsfan</title>
		<link>http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/fake-teams-prospect-mock-draft-my-team-my-strategy/#comment-783750</link>
		<dc:creator>DrBGiantsfan</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 22 Feb 2013 19:30:35 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/?p=41223#comment-783750</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[There are studies out there, I think John Sickels&#039; was mentioned in the discussion about JD Sussman&#039;s column, that dispute this notion.  Teams may be getting better at developing pitching prospects or newer surgical and rehab technigues are increasing the salvage rate for injured pitchers, but I don&#039;t believe it is an established fact that pitching prospects are more likely to fail.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>There are studies out there, I think John Sickels&#8217; was mentioned in the discussion about JD Sussman&#8217;s column, that dispute this notion.  Teams may be getting better at developing pitching prospects or newer surgical and rehab technigues are increasing the salvage rate for injured pitchers, but I don&#8217;t believe it is an established fact that pitching prospects are more likely to fail.</p>
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		<title>By: NES</title>
		<link>http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/fake-teams-prospect-mock-draft-my-team-my-strategy/#comment-783745</link>
		<dc:creator>NES</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 22 Feb 2013 19:15:26 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/?p=41223#comment-783745</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[WOW this is exactly what I was looking for since I&#039;m joining a fresh dynasty league!

Thanks!!!!!!!]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>WOW this is exactly what I was looking for since I&#8217;m joining a fresh dynasty league!</p>
<p>Thanks!!!!!!!</p>
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		<title>By: tylersnotes</title>
		<link>http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/fake-teams-prospect-mock-draft-my-team-my-strategy/#comment-783744</link>
		<dc:creator>tylersnotes</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 22 Feb 2013 19:13:31 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/?p=41223#comment-783744</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Prospects are simultaneously overvalued and volatile in fantasy; it&#039;s awesome to have a bryce harper or dylan bundy in your fantasy farm system, but just as often you&#039;ll have tim beckham or a hyped pitcher with the upside of a no. 5 starter or middle relief. 

Rob Brantly might not be a glamorous pick, but value is value and a catcher who is guaranteed playing time is worth a lot more in fantasy than the 19 year old 2012 first rounder who put up impressive numbers in rookie ball. 

In a draft like this I&#039;d look for 5 players who could contribute this or at latest 2014, and fill the rest with players I&#039;d hope to trade. Even though you can always find pitching in fantasy, I&#039;ve found I can trade a highly touted prospect for a lot more than I can trade the 4th starter I picked up off waivers. In that context, a guy like Arodyz Vizcaino going in the final round could look like a major steal.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Prospects are simultaneously overvalued and volatile in fantasy; it&#8217;s awesome to have a bryce harper or dylan bundy in your fantasy farm system, but just as often you&#8217;ll have tim beckham or a hyped pitcher with the upside of a no. 5 starter or middle relief. </p>
<p>Rob Brantly might not be a glamorous pick, but value is value and a catcher who is guaranteed playing time is worth a lot more in fantasy than the 19 year old 2012 first rounder who put up impressive numbers in rookie ball. </p>
<p>In a draft like this I&#8217;d look for 5 players who could contribute this or at latest 2014, and fill the rest with players I&#8217;d hope to trade. Even though you can always find pitching in fantasy, I&#8217;ve found I can trade a highly touted prospect for a lot more than I can trade the 4th starter I picked up off waivers. In that context, a guy like Arodyz Vizcaino going in the final round could look like a major steal.</p>
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		<title>By: tylersnotes</title>
		<link>http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/fake-teams-prospect-mock-draft-my-team-my-strategy/#comment-783742</link>
		<dc:creator>tylersnotes</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 22 Feb 2013 18:55:18 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/?p=41223#comment-783742</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Every manager&#039;s strategy will be different, of course, but my experience with dynasty leagues is that many owners highly overinflate the value of hyped prospects versus major league talent. I would expect that the return in a trade you could get in 2013 for a Shelby Miller could be quite valuable.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Every manager&#8217;s strategy will be different, of course, but my experience with dynasty leagues is that many owners highly overinflate the value of hyped prospects versus major league talent. I would expect that the return in a trade you could get in 2013 for a Shelby Miller could be quite valuable.</p>
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		<title>By: Atari</title>
		<link>http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/fake-teams-prospect-mock-draft-my-team-my-strategy/#comment-783729</link>
		<dc:creator>Atari</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 22 Feb 2013 17:59:27 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/?p=41223#comment-783729</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[It is true that pitchers fail more but everyone needs it. Pitching has value too. You could always use the players in a trade, especially right now when their value is highest.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>It is true that pitchers fail more but everyone needs it. Pitching has value too. You could always use the players in a trade, especially right now when their value is highest.</p>
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		<title>By: rickeycanstillplay</title>
		<link>http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/fake-teams-prospect-mock-draft-my-team-my-strategy/#comment-783728</link>
		<dc:creator>rickeycanstillplay</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 22 Feb 2013 17:59:16 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/?p=41223#comment-783728</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I think you have to look at the context. The guys that were drafted in the same block are way less proven than the two pitchers he selected and therefore have just as great a risk. Not to mention a lengthy wait. He also nabbed some real nice bats with upside and opportunity in 3,4&amp;5 rounds. hardly a fail. Billy Hamilton going 1st is the fail here.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I think you have to look at the context. The guys that were drafted in the same block are way less proven than the two pitchers he selected and therefore have just as great a risk. Not to mention a lengthy wait. He also nabbed some real nice bats with upside and opportunity in 3,4&amp;5 rounds. hardly a fail. Billy Hamilton going 1st is the fail here.</p>
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