February FanGraphs Mock Draft

Monday night, we got some people together in a virtual room to pick real players for a fake baseball game — hopefully for your tangible benefit.

I struggled with how to present this. I’m unsure anyone wants to read through words on top of words on top of words for each round. So I’ll give you the participants, and the draft, and let you make the comments. This mock will help us in our analysis, and we’ll refer to it in future pieces. But to award a best and worst pick in each round just tells you what I think.

And the beauty of this mock is that it’s about what all of us thought late Monday night, February third. What do you think about what we thought?

Eno Sarris, FanGraphs
JP Breen, FanGraphs
Brad Johnson, FanGraphs
Scott Spratt, FanGraphs
Paul Swydan, FanGraphs
Jack Weiland, FanGraphs
Colin Zarzycki, FanGraphs
Andy Behrens, Yahoo
Ben Carsley, Baseball Prospectus
Derek Carty, DerekCarty.com
Matthew Dewoskin, FP911
Steve Gardner, USAToday
Ray Guilfoyle, FakeTeams
Peter Kreutzer, AskRotoman
Michael Pichan, Fantasy Alarm
DJ Short, RotoWorld
Brett Talley, TheFantasyFix
Derek Van Riper
, RotoWire

5×5 roto
C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, 5OF, CI, MI, UT, 2SP, 2RP, 5P, 3BN

1.1 Mike Trout OF Derek VanRiper
1.2 Miguel Cabrera 3B Derek Carty
1.3 Paul Goldschmidt 1B enosarris
1.4 Robinson Cano 2B FantasyNomad
1.5 Andrew McCutchen OF Brad Johnson
1.6 Hanley Ramirez SS D.J. Short
1.7 Clayton Kershaw SP FakeTeams
1.8 Ryan Braun OF Ben Carsley
1.9 Carlos Gonzalez OF Scott Spratt
1.1 Joey Votto 1B Brett Talley (TheFan
1.11 Adam Jones OF Andy Behrens
1.12 Troy Tulowitzki SS jackweiland
1.13 Chris Davis 1B Steve Gardner
1.14 Bryce Harper OF ColinZarzycki
1.15 Edwin Encarnacion 1B JP_Breen
1.16 Giancarlo Stanton OF Swyjazz
1.17 Jason Kipnis 2B Rotoman
1.18 Prince Fielder 1B Matthew Dewoskin
2.19 Jacoby Ellsbury OF Matthew Dewoskin
2.2 Adrian Beltre 3B Rotoman
2.21 Evan Longoria 3B Swyjazz
2.22 Dustin Pedroia 2B JP_Breen
2.23 David Wright 3B ColinZarzycki
2.24 Carlos Gomez OF Steve Gardner
2.25 Matt Holliday OF jackweiland
2.26 Yasiel Puig OF Andy Behrens
2.27 Jose Bautista OF Brett Talley (TheFan
2.28 Yu Darvish SP Scott Spratt
2.29 Jose Reyes SS Ben Carsley
2.3 Jay Bruce OF FakeTeams
2.31 Justin Upton OF D.J. Short
2.32 Freddie Freeman 1B Brad Johnson
2.33 Jean Segura SS FantasyNomad
2.34 Stephen Strasburg SP enosarris
2.35 Ian Desmond SS Derek Carty
2.36 Alex Rios OF Derek VanRiper
3.37 Shin-Soo Choo OF Derek VanRiper
3.38 Max Scherzer SP Derek Carty
3.39 Ian Kinsler 2B enosarris
3.4 Adrian Gonzalez 1B FantasyNomad
3.41 Eric Hosmer 1B Brad Johnson
3.42 Ryan Zimmerman 3B D.J. Short
3.43 Matt Kemp OF FakeTeams
3.44 Manny Machado 3B Ben Carsley
3.45 Buster Posey C Scott Spratt
3.46 Anthony Rizzo 1B Brett Talley (TheFan
3.47 Albert Pujols 1B Andy Behrens
3.48 Josh Donaldson 3B jackweiland
3.49 Matt Carpenter 2B Steve Gardner
3.5 Carlos Santana C ColinZarzycki
3.51 Wil Myers OF JP_Breen
3.52 Justin Verlander SP Swyjazz
3.53 Elvis Andrus SS Rotoman
3.54 Jason Heyward OF Matthew Dewoskin
4.55 Adam Wainwright SP Matthew Dewoskin
4.56 Joe Mauer C Rotoman
4.57 Felix Hernandez SP Swyjazz
4.58 Madison Bumgarner SP JP_Breen
4.59 Yoenis Cespedes OF ColinZarzycki
4.6 Cliff Lee SP Steve Gardner
4.61 Chris Sale SP jackweiland
4.62 Zack Greinke SP Andy Behrens
4.63 Jose Altuve 2B Brett Talley (TheFan
4.64 Hunter Pence OF Scott Spratt
4.65 David Ortiz DH Ben Carsley
4.66 Mark Trumbo 1B FakeTeams
4.67 David Price SP D.J. Short
4.68 Craig Kimbrel RP Brad Johnson
4.69 Alex Gordon OF FantasyNomad
4.7 Starling Marte OF enosarris
4.71 Jayson Werth OF Derek Carty
4.72 Jose Fernandez SP Derek VanRiper
5.73 Aaron Hill 2B Derek VanRiper
5.74 Aroldis Chapman RP Derek Carty
5.75 Allen Craig 1B enosarris
5.76 Jordan Zimmermann SP FantasyNomad
5.77 Greg Holland RP Brad Johnson
5.78 Martin Prado 3B D.J. Short
5.79 Pedro Alvarez 3B FakeTeams
5.8 Cole Hamels SP Ben Carsley
5.81 Ben Zobrist 2B Scott Spratt
5.82 Domonic Brown OF Brett Talley (TheFan
5.83 Hisashi Iwakuma SP Andy Behrens
5.84 Neil Walker 2B jackweiland
5.85 Everth Cabrera SS Steve Gardner
5.86 Jedd Gyorko 2B ColinZarzycki
5.87 Brian McCann C JP_Breen
5.88 Wilin Rosario C Swyjazz
5.89 Josh Hamilton OF Rotoman
5.9 Brandon Phillips 2B Matthew Dewoskin
6.91 Anibal Sanchez SP Matthew Dewoskin
6.92 Mike Napoli 1B Rotoman
6.93 Gerrit Cole SP Swyjazz
6.94 Matt Cain SP JP_Breen
6.95 Kris Medlen SP ColinZarzycki
6.96 Yadier Molina C Steve Gardner
6.97 Masahiro Tanaka SP jackweiland
6.98 Michael Cuddyer OF Andy Behrens
6.99 Pablo Sandoval 3B Brett Talley (TheFan
6.1 Kenley Jansen RP Scott Spratt
6.101 Jonathan Lucroy C Ben Carsley
6.102 Desmond Jennings OF FakeTeams
6.103 Trevor Rosenthal RP D.J. Short
6.104 Kyle Seager 3B Brad Johnson
6.105 Chase Utley 2B FantasyNomad
6.106 Brett Lawrie 3B enosarris
6.107 Carlos Beltran OF Derek Carty
6.108 Billy Hamilton OF Derek VanRiper
7.109 Jose Abreu 1B Derek VanRiper
7.11 Shane Victorino OF Derek Carty
7.111 Koji Uehara RP enosarris
7.112 Nolan Arenado 3B FantasyNomad
7.113 Xander Bogaerts 3B Brad Johnson
7.114 Brandon Belt 1B D.J. Short
7.115 Alex Cobb SP FakeTeams
7.116 Matt Moore SP Ben Carsley
7.117 Starlin Castro SS Scott Spratt
7.118 Billy Butler DH Brett Talley (TheFan
7.119 Matt Adams 1B Andy Behrens
7.12 Jarrod Saltalamacchia C jackweiland
7.121 Joe Nathan RP Steve Gardner
7.122 Andrelton Simmons SS ColinZarzycki
7.123 Homer Bailey SP JP_Breen
7.124 Brandon Moss 1B Swyjazz
7.125 Mike Minor SP Rotoman
7.126 James Shields SP Matthew Dewoskin
8.127 Leonys Martin OF Matthew Dewoskin
8.128 Shelby Miller SP Rotoman
8.129 Jurickson Profar 2B Swyjazz
8.13 Aramis Ramirez 3B JP_Breen
8.131 Gio Gonzalez SP ColinZarzycki
8.132 Mat Latos SP Steve Gardner
8.133 Hyun-Jin Ryu SP jackweiland
8.134 J.J. Hardy SS Andy Behrens
8.135 Doug Fister SP Brett Talley (TheFan
8.136 Austin Jackson OF Scott Spratt
8.137 Anthony Rendon 2B Ben Carsley
8.138 Jed Lowrie SS FakeTeams
8.139 Michael Wacha SP D.J. Short
8.14 Julio Teheran SP Brad Johnson
8.141 David Robertson RP FantasyNomad
8.142 Andrew Cashner SP enosarris
8.143 Daniel Murphy 2B Derek Carty
8.144 Chase Headley 3B Derek VanRiper
9.145 Sergio Romo RP Derek VanRiper
9.146 Jered Weaver SP Derek Carty
9.147 Norichika Aoki OF enosarris
9.148 Salvador Perez C FantasyNomad
9.149 Sonny Gray SP Brad Johnson
9.15 Kole Calhoun OF D.J. Short
9.151 Francisco Liriano SP FakeTeams
9.152 Curtis Granderson OF Ben Carsley
9.153 Jon Lester SP Scott Spratt
9.154 Michael Bourn OF Brett Talley (TheFan
9.155 Danny Salazar SP Andy Behrens
9.156 Glen Perkins RP jackweiland
9.157 Victor Martinez DH Steve Gardner
9.158 Jeff Samardzija SP ColinZarzycki
9.159 Brad Miller SS JP_Breen
9.16 Alfonso Soriano OF Swyjazz
9.161 Addison Reed RP Rotoman
9.162 Matt Wieters C Matthew Dewoskin
10.163 Will Venable OF Matthew Dewoskin
10.164 Brett Gardner OF Rotoman
10.165 Jhonny Peralta SS Swyjazz
10.166 Adam Eaton OF JP_Breen
10.167 Christian Yelich OF ColinZarzycki
10.168 Nelson Cruz OF Steve Gardner
10.169 Alexei Ramirez SS jackweiland
10.17 Evan Gattis C Andy Behrens
10.171 Howie Kendrick 2B Brett Talley (TheFan
10.172 Kendrys Morales 1B Scott Spratt
10.173 Carl Crawford OF Ben Carsley
10.174 Jim Johnson RP FakeTeams
10.175 Wilson Ramos C D.J. Short
10.176 Jimmy Rollins SS Brad Johnson
10.177 Taijuan Walker SP FantasyNomad
10.178 Brian Dozier 2B enosarris
10.179 Justin Morneau 1B Derek Carty
10.18 Tony Cingrani SP Derek VanRiper
11.181 Zack Wheeler SP Derek VanRiper
11.182 Asdrubal Cabrera SS Derek Carty
11.183 Patrick Corbin SP enosarris
11.184 Coco Crisp OF FantasyNomad
11.185 Nick Swisher 1B Brad Johnson
11.186 Michael Brantley OF D.J. Short
11.187 Clay Buchholz SP FakeTeams
11.188 Jonathan Papelbon RP Ben Carsley
11.189 Jason Grilli RP Scott Spratt
11.19 CC Sabathia SP Brett Talley (TheFan
11.191 Casey Janssen RP Andy Behrens
11.192 Johnny Cueto SP jackweiland
11.193 Rafael Soriano RP Steve Gardner
11.194 Stephen Drew SS ColinZarzycki
11.195 Grant Balfour RP JP_Breen
11.196 Dexter Fowler OF Swyjazz
11.197 Justin Masterson SP Rotoman
11.198 Chris Johnson 3B Matthew Dewoskin
12.199 Khristopher Davis OF Matthew Dewoskin
12.2 R.A. Dickey SP Rotoman
12.201 Lance Lynn SP Swyjazz
12.202 Chris Carter 1B JP_Breen
12.203 Yan Gomes C ColinZarzycki
12.204 Todd Frazier 3B Steve Gardner
12.205 Steve Cishek RP jackweiland
12.206 Hiroki Kuroda SP Andy Behrens
12.207 Erick Aybar SS Brett Talley (TheFan
12.208 Torii Hunter OF Scott Spratt
12.209 C.J. Wilson SP Ben Carsley
12.21 B.J. Upton OF FakeTeams
12.211 Chris Archer SP D.J. Short
12.212 Corey Kluber SP Brad Johnson
12.213 Marlon Byrd OF FantasyNomad
12.214 Nick Markakis OF enosarris
12.215 Ubaldo Jimenez SP Derek Carty
12.216 Marco Estrada SP Derek VanRiper
13.217 Dan Straily SP Derek VanRiper
13.218 A.J. Pierzynski C Derek Carty
13.219 A.J. Griffin SP enosarris
13.22 Brandon Beachy SP FantasyNomad
13.221 Oswaldo Arcia OF Brad Johnson
13.222 Josh Reddick OF D.J. Short
13.223 Jason Castro C FakeTeams
13.224 Adam Lind 1B Ben Carsley
13.225 Jarrod Parker SP Scott Spratt
13.226 Dan Haren SP Brett Talley (TheFan
13.227 Huston Street RP Andy Behrens
13.228 Ryan Howard 1B jackweiland
13.229 Mark Teixeira 1B Steve Gardner
13.23 Matt Garza SP ColinZarzycki
13.231 Rick Porcello SP JP_Breen
13.232 A.J. Burnett SP Swyjazz
13.233 Dayan Viciedo OF Rotoman
13.234 Neftali Feliz RP Matthew Dewoskin
14.235 Tyson Ross SP Matthew Dewoskin
14.236 George Springer OF Rotoman
14.237 Carlos Quentin OF Swyjazz
14.238 John Lackey SP JP_Breen
14.239 Ben Revere OF ColinZarzycki
14.24 Tim Lincecum SP Steve Gardner
14.241 Nate Schierholtz OF jackweiland
14.242 Jonathan Villar SS Andy Behrens
14.243 Ian Kennedy SP Brett Talley (TheFan
14.244 Yovani Gallardo SP Scott Spratt
14.245 Chris Tillman SP Ben Carsley
14.246 Corey Hart 1B FakeTeams
14.247 Drew Smyly SP D.J. Short
14.248 Danny Farquhar RP Brad Johnson
14.249 Ernesto Frieri RP FantasyNomad
14.25 Alcides Escobar SS enosarris
14.251 Alejandro De Aza OF Derek Carty
14.252 Oscar Taveras OF Derek VanRiper
15.253 Jim Henderson RP Derek VanRiper
15.254 Nate Jones RP Derek Carty
15.255 Rex Brothers RP enosarris
15.256 Avisail Garcia OF FantasyNomad
15.257 Melky Cabrera OF Brad Johnson
15.258 Adam LaRoche 1B D.J. Short
15.259 Chris Owings SS FakeTeams
15.26 Nick Castellanos 3B Ben Carsley
15.261 Alex Wood SP Scott Spratt
15.262 Bobby Parnell RP Brett Talley (TheFan
15.263 David Freese 3B Andy Behrens
15.264 Will Middlebrooks 3B jackweiland
15.265 Denard Span OF Steve Gardner
15.266 Alexander Guerrero 2B ColinZarzycki
15.267 Daniel Nava OF JP_Breen
15.268 LaTroy Hawkins RP Swyjazz
15.269 Mike Moustakas 3B Rotoman
15.27 Fernando Rodney RP Matthew Dewoskin
16.271 Justin Smoak 1B Matthew Dewoskin
16.272 Gerardo Parra OF Rotoman
16.273 Tommy Hunter RP Swyjazz
16.274 Scooter Gennett 2B JP_Breen
16.275 Josh Willingham OF ColinZarzycki
16.276 Scott Kazmir SP Steve Gardner
16.277 Andre Ethier OF jackweiland
16.278 Ivan Nova SP Andy Behrens
16.279 Rajai Davis OF Brett Talley (TheFan
16.28 Matt Dominguez 3B Scott Spratt
16.281 Kelly Johnson 2B Ben Carsley
16.282 John Axford RP FakeTeams
16.283 Jose Veras RP D.J. Short
16.284 Kolten Wong 2B Brad Johnson
16.285 Bartolo Colon SP FantasyNomad
16.286 Miguel Montero C enosarris
16.287 Tim Hudson SP Derek Carty
16.288 Joakim Soria RP Derek VanRiper
17.289 Nathan Eovaldi SP Derek VanRiper
17.29 Dillon Gee SP Derek Carty
17.291 Junior Lake OF enosarris
17.292 Eric Young Jr. OF FantasyNomad
17.293 Angel Pagan OF Brad Johnson
17.294 Jackie Bradley Jr. OF D.J. Short
17.295 Kevin Gausman RP FakeTeams
17.296 Jesse Crain RP Ben Carsley
17.297 Omar Infante 2B Scott Spratt
17.298 Jaime Garcia SP Brett Talley (TheFan
17.299 Martin Perez SP Andy Behrens
17.3 Josh Johnson SP jackweiland
17.301 Peter Bourjos OF Steve Gardner
17.302 Sergio Santos RP ColinZarzycki
17.303 Lorenzo Cain OF JP_Breen
17.304 Colby Rasmus OF Swyjazz
17.305 Joe Kelly SP Rotoman
17.306 Erik Johnson SP Matthew Dewoskin
18.307 Yunel Escobar SS Matthew Dewoskin
18.308 Erasmo Ramirez SP Rotoman
18.309 Jose Quintana SP Swyjazz
18.31 Joaquin Benoit RP JP_Breen
18.311 Carlos Martinez RP ColinZarzycki
18.312 Jorge De La Rosa SP Steve Gardner
18.313 Cameron Maybin OF jackweiland
18.314 Michael Morse OF Andy Behrens
18.315 Jake Peavy SP Brett Talley (TheFan
18.316 James Loney 1B Scott Spratt
18.317 Raul Ibanez OF Ben Carsley
18.318 Justin Ruggiano OF FakeTeams
18.319 Dustin Ackley OF D.J. Short
18.32 Yordano Ventura SP Brad Johnson
18.321 Josh Rutledge 2B FantasyNomad
18.322 Marcell Ozuna OF enosarris
18.323 Ervin Santana SP Derek Carty
18.324 Travis d’Arnaud C Derek VanRiper
19.325 Adam Dunn DH Derek VanRiper
19.326 Ike Davis 1B Derek Carty
19.327 James Paxton SP enosarris
19.328 Hector Santiago SP FantasyNomad
19.329 Jordy Mercer SS Brad Johnson
19.33 Jon Niese SP D.J. Short
19.331 Cory Luebke SP FakeTeams
19.332 Derek Jeter SS Ben Carsley
19.333 Matt Joyce OF Scott Spratt
19.334 Jose Tabata OF Brett Talley (TheFan
19.335 DJ LeMahieu 2B Andy Behrens
19.336 Lucas Duda OF jackweiland
19.337 Jose Iglesias SS Steve Gardner
19.338 Ricky Nolasco SP ColinZarzycki
19.339 Felipe Paulino SP JP_Breen
19.34 Marco Scutaro 2B Swyjazz
19.341 Rickie Weeks 2B Rotoman
19.342 Drew Stubbs OF Matthew Dewoskin
20.343 Danny Duffy SP Matthew Dewoskin
20.344 Archie Bradley SP Rotoman
20.345 Cody Allen RP Swyjazz
20.346 Mark Reynolds 1B JP_Breen
20.347 Nick Franklin 2B ColinZarzycki
20.348 Travis Wood SP Steve Gardner
20.349 Craig Gentry OF jackweiland
20.35 Brandon Morrow SP Andy Behrens
20.351 Gregory Polanco OF Brett Talley (TheFan
20.352 Mitch Moreland 1B Scott Spratt
20.353 Jonathan Singleton 1B Ben Carsley
20.354 A.J. Pollock OF FakeTeams
20.355 Mike Leake SP D.J. Short
20.356 Chris Denorfia OF Brad Johnson
20.357 Lonnie Chisenhall 3B FantasyNomad
20.358 Derek Holland SP enosarris
20.359 Robbie Grossman OF Derek Carty
20.36 Javier Baez SS Derek VanRiper
21.361 Wily Peralta SP Derek VanRiper
21.362 Kyle Lohse SP Derek Carty
21.363 Yonder Alonso 1B enosarris
21.364 Blake Parker RP FantasyNomad
21.365 Addison Russell SS Brad Johnson
21.366 Chris Young OF D.J. Short
21.367 Dan Uggla 2B FakeTeams
21.368 Jhoulys Chacin SP Ben Carsley
21.369 Miguel Sano 3B Scott Spratt
21.37 Josh Fields RP Brett Talley (TheFan
21.371 Pedro Strop RP Andy Behrens
21.372 Darin Ruf OF jackweiland
21.373 Bud Norris SP Steve Gardner
21.374 Luke Hochevar RP ColinZarzycki
21.375 Trevor Cahill SP JP_Breen
21.376 Kyle Blanks OF Swyjazz
21.377 Byron Buxton OF Rotoman
21.378 Emilio Bonifacio 2B Matthew Dewoskin
22.379 Junichi Tazawa RP Matthew Dewoskin
22.38 Tanner Roark SP Rotoman
22.381 Charlie Morton SP Swyjazz
22.382 Tyler Clippard RP JP_Breen
22.383 Logan Morrison 1B ColinZarzycki
22.384 Nate McLouth OF Steve Gardner
22.385 Matt Harrison SP jackweiland
22.386 David Murphy OF Andy Behrens
22.387 Mark Melancon RP Brett Talley (TheFan
22.388 Tanner Scheppers RP Scott Spratt
22.389 Matt Davidson 3B Ben Carsley
22.39 Burch Smith SP FakeTeams
22.391 Gordon Beckham 2B D.J. Short
22.392 Marcus Stroman RP Brad Johnson
22.393 Wade Miley SP FantasyNomad
22.394 Cody Asche 3B enosarris
22.395 Garrett Jones 1B Derek Carty
22.396 Zack Cozart SS Derek VanRiper
23.397 Jake Odorizzi SP Derek VanRiper
23.398 David Phelps SP Derek Carty
23.399 Jacob Turner SP enosarris
23.4 Trevor Plouffe 3B FantasyNomad
23.401 Tom Gorzelanny RP Brad Johnson
23.402 Jenrry Mejia SP D.J. Short
23.403 Henry Urrutia DH FakeTeams
23.404 Jake Marisnick OF Ben Carsley
23.405 Jarrod Dyson OF Scott Spratt
23.406 Jake McGee RP Brett Talley (TheFan
23.407 Kris Bryant 3B Andy Behrens
23.408 Brett Anderson SP jackweiland
23.409 Alexi Ogando SP Steve Gardner
23.41 Noah Syndergaard SP ColinZarzycki
23.411 Ryan Raburn OF JP_Breen
23.412 J.J. Putz RP Swyjazz
23.413 Jeremy Hellickson SP Rotoman
23.414 Jesus Guzman OF Matthew Dewoskin
24.415 Joel Peralta RP Matthew Dewoskin
24.416 Michael Pineda SP Rotoman
24.417 Jason Motte RP Swyjazz
24.418 Jameson Taillon SP JP_Breen
24.419 Grady Sizemore OF ColinZarzycki
24.42 Brandon Kintzler RP Steve Gardner
24.421 Phil Hughes SP jackweiland
24.422 Jason Hammel SP Andy Behrens
24.423 Devin Mesoraco C Brett Talley (TheFan
24.424 Sean Doolittle RP Scott Spratt
24.425 Tyler Skaggs SP Ben Carsley
24.426 Marcus Semien 3B FakeTeams
24.427 Chad Qualls RP D.J. Short
24.428 Robert Stephenson SP Brad Johnson
24.429 Bronson Arroyo SP FantasyNomad
24.43 Brad Peacock SP enosarris
24.431 Garrett Richards SP Derek Carty
24.432 Charlie Blackmon OF Derek VanRiper
25.433 Drew Pomeranz SP Derek VanRiper
25.434 Aaron Hicks OF Derek Carty
25.435 Carter Capps RP enosarris
25.436 A.J. Ellis C FantasyNomad
25.437 Yasmani Grandal C Brad Johnson
25.438 Corey Dickerson OF D.J. Short
25.439 Dylan Bundy SP FakeTeams
25.44 Joe Smith RP Ben Carsley
25.441 Edward Mujica RP Scott Spratt
25.442 Kelvin Herrera RP Brett Talley (TheFan
25.443 Tommy La Stella 2B Andy Behrens
25.444 Welington Castillo C jackweiland
25.445 Brian Roberts 2B Steve Gardner
25.446 Brandon McCarthy SP ColinZarzycki
25.447 Joc Pederson OF JP_Breen
25.448 Jonathan Schoop 2B Swyjazz
25.449 Felix Doubront SP Rotoman
25.45 Edwin Jackson SP Matthew Dewoskin

See the team-by-team breakdown here.

Slowly, you’ll notice our ‘Draft Tools’ links on the bottom right are filling up. We’ll move them to the top when we reach critical mass.




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Graphs: Baseball, Roto, Beer, brats (OK, no graphs for that...yet), repeat. Follow him on Twitter @enosarris.


65 Responses to “February FanGraphs Mock Draft”

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  1. Andrew A says:

    this would suggest I should keep Stanton $25 over Bruce $20, or at least that I should definitely keep both if I can (~33% inflation)?

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  2. Evan says:

    The picks that stand out to me as head scratchers are Rizzo, Aramis Ramirez, Neil Walker,Saltalamacchia, and Boegarts

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • J.P. Breen says:

      To me, the only real concern with Aramis Ramirez surrounds his health. Even last year, when he dealt with knee injuries all year, he still managed a .366 wOBA. The production should be there, and considering the Brewers have no other options at third base, I think he’ll receive as many PAs as his body can handle.

      If you think he’ll be too injured to see 500+ PAs, though, I understand wanting to wait on him.

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    • Jack Weiland says:

      Hey great two of those are mine!

      Salty was admittedly a very poor choice, and one I knew was poor immediately. I blamed it last night the mention of Starlin Castro’s name throwing me into a blind rage, and by the time I came to … I’d selected Salty. In the last round of the draft catchers I like marginally less (if at all) were being selected so … yeah. My bad.

      Walker: I felt like my draft to that point had a lot of volatility/question marks, so I wanted to get something more stable. In a bubble I like some of the guys taken after him more, but that wasn’t my thought process. He walks, makes contact, should be due for a bounce back up in average because his BABIP was much lower than his career numbers would suggest, and he has decent/average power. At least that’s where I was at with that one.

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    • J.P. Breen says:

      To put it differently, I’d rather have Aramis Ramirez than Pablo Sandoval, and Ramirez went roughly 30 picks earlier.

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    • JoeC says:

      Yes, that Neil Walker pick blew me out of the water. Horrible over-draft.

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  3. Cookierojas16 says:

    There was a run on guys with initials instead of first names in the 12th and 13th rounds. In that context, I’m surprised J.J. Hardy went so early.

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  4. pualy says:

    Can’t get behind taking Strasburg at 34 in a league that deep.

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    • Clayton says:

      He’s still a top 8 Fantasy Pitcher, I might take Scherzer over him, but I’d grab him over any of the other pitchers taken after him. Elite pitching has got to be really valuable in a deep league like that.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

      • James says:

        What makes him a top 8 fantasy pitcher? He finished outside the top 15 last year, two spots below Bartolo Colon.

        http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/2013-end-of-season-rankings-starting-pitching/

        I think he’ll eventually be a top flight pitcher, but I don’t understand why he was taken so early when so many great pitchers were available. Eno could have waited two rounds and taken a Price/Lee/Sale/Greinke type. Is Strasburg two rounds more elite than those guys?

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      • froglegs jackson says:

        I’d go with Felix, Wainwright, Scherzer, Sale, and Lee ahead of him, simply for durability concerns. Those guys went anywhere from 4 to 27 picks behind Strasburg, too.

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      • gump says:

        Steamer has him at #9, FANS after #15, not sure he’s top 8 right now

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      • Eno Sarris says:

        I love Strasburg to death this year. May not be rational. Only one pitcher managed to strikeout one per inning and have a BB/9 under three with 50+% GBs last year (Felix) and I think Stras is ready for 200 innings, and is younger than Felix. If you don’t think 200 innings are coming, he’s not going to have the counting stats (retro or projected) to warrant the pick. I do think it was an iffy pick, just from what happened after it in the draft, but I’m beginning to like the idea of taking an ace in the first three-four rounds. Something I never used to do.

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      • centerfield ballhawk says:

        Eno,
        Why take an ace early this year, of all years? Pitching is deeper than it has been ever. Is that something that you would advise for ten and twelve team mixers, as well?

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      • Eno Sarris says:

        Not in the first or second. But third and fourth? The reason that we tank pitches is because they get hurt more often (by 1%) and stay on the DL longer, but that can happen to hitters too. Pitchers are harder to project year to year, and that’s a big deal. But top-level pitchers are about equal to hitters in projectability. I could have waited. But Stras or Verlander or someone in the late 40s? Early 50s? Yes. I like that.

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      • murphym45 says:

        Re James: Price/Lee/Sale/Greinke were all gone before Eno’s fourth round pick. The best guys available at the end of the 4th were Jose Fernandez, Hamels, J Zimmerman and Iwakuma. When you know you have to wait 30 picks before you draft again, you pick the guys you want, even if it might seem a bit early.

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  5. ML610 says:

    18 teams changes the analysis, greatly in my view. Interesting, but probably tough to comp for purposes of prepping for a 12 (or even 15) team league.

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  6. James says:

    I can’t understand Strasburg that high and several rounds before other pitchers I’d take before him. He lost his super elite K rate last year and still has never gone 200 innings in a season. It’s at least 50/50 that Chris Sale has a season better than Strasburg and he’s taken two rounds later.

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    • pualy says:

      Eno – what say you?

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      • Eno Sarris says:

        Above. I’m buying Stras at 200 innings on a much better team than Sale, as unsexy as it is to try and predict wins. As for losing his elite K rate, he was seventh in the league in K%. I think the only valid argument against him is IP, really, and well, I guess I think this will be the year. A bit hard to count the other years against him because of TJ. Can he go from 183 to 200? I say yes.

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      • James says:

        He went from 1st in the league in K% in 2012, at 30.2% or 11.13 K/9 all the way down to 7th in the league in K% in 2013, at 26.1% and 9.39 K/9.

        Sale had the same K/9 & K%, a far better walk rate, and is a year younger than Strasburg… all while having two 200 IP seasons under his belt.

        Strasburg lost velocity on his FB, had a lower SwStr%, and had a lower F-Strike% than last year. All of those were slight, but it isn’t like he’s due for some bounceback in strikeout rate which just didn’t translate last year.

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      • murphym45 says:

        Over past two seasons only Darvish and Scherzer have higher K/9 or K% than Strasburg. Of starters with over 150 projected innings, Steamer only projects Darvish and Jose Fernandez to be ahead of him in K/9 this year. I get that there’s an argument for Sale based on durability, but I don’t think you can say that a healthy Strasburg doesn’t have more upside than Sale.
        (Not to mention home park, AL, and bad team for Sale)

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  7. snarf says:

    2 questions:
    What mock draft platform was used? Did that platform provide it’s own predraft rankings?

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  8. dmakiya says:

    Machado seems a little early, no?

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    • Clayton says:

      I was thinking the same thing.

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    • bcarsley22 says:

      I think it’s a little early, that’s fair. I didn’t think Machado and Donaldson would make it back to me, though, and I don’t love the next tier of 3B, so I reached a bit to avoid the dropoff.

      I don’t hate this pick as I believe Machado has more pop than he showed in 2013, but looking back I might’ve taken Heyward or Pujols – 1B and OF are a bit shallower than they appear, too.

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    • centerfield ballhawk says:

      I’m out on Machado this year. Too much not to like. If he was switching to short, maybe.

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  9. Joseph says:

    I find the Cliff Lee, Chris Sale, David Price run in the 60s interesting. Seems like that’s a steal for top shelf pitchers. Why not take them in the forties?

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    • theojd says:

      Because obviously they could’ve been had in the 60′s…..and were

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      • Jack Weiland says:

        As a guy who passed on them in the 40s and then took one in the 60s (Sale) I can say that with my third pick I still wanted to build my base of hitters, as I generally prefer to do. Also the fact that we had so many elite-ish arms still on the board and a dwindling number of quality hitters at scarce positions was part of it. I agree it’s interesting, though, and was probably more of a gamble than I realized, in a league where pitching would probably matter more than it would in a 10 or 12 team league.

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  10. Alex says:

    Ok, I’ll ask it – Puig: Too high, too low, or just right?

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  11. AZ says:

    A-Gon 40th overall seems high. I don’t see how he lives up to a top-40 player. Power is down the past two years. Makes it worse when you take into account guys like Pujols, Rizzo, and Hosmer were still on the board and a guy like Craig went over 30 picks later. I think this was a big reach.

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    • Ray says:

      AGonz is one of the more consistent hitters even though the power is down. You can write him down for 20-25 HRs, 90-100 RBI and a .290 BA….there’s value in that.
      Pujols has same issue with power being down…actually, every category has been down over the last 5 years.
      Love Hosmer, but AGonz comes with less risk. Rizzo has more power, but hits in bad lineup and comes with low BA.

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  12. centerfield ballhawk says:

    Nice to see my boy Brad Miller getting some love.

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  13. Mike D says:

    I am pretty floored that players at “high premium” positions go as high as they do. Cano 4th?!?

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    • Kevin Wiley says:

      I’m not seeing him as a top 5 pick this year. Still #1 at the position but I see it very unlikely he produces at the same level in Seattle that he has in NY.

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  14. matlock says:

    I think brad johnson’s team is in serious trouble. Way too many pitchers early. Taking kimbrel and holland back to back? Enjoy that; investing in closers early, especially one that lost the gig last season, is fool’s gold

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  15. Dave the Rave says:

    Think Kipnis is too high in a league with this many teams. The stat difference between him and someone later won’t make up for the dropoff at the heavy counting stat positions you’ll get in later rounds.

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    • Ray says:

      so you don’t like 2bman who go 17-30 with 80+ runs and RBI?

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      • Dave the Rave says:

        Hey Ray! Love them! Although I’ll take the way under on 30. Issue is, the difference between what Kipnis will actually do and what, say, Jed Lowrie will do several rounds later isn’t as great as the difference between what Prince Fielder will actually do and what Brandon Belt will do several rounds later. And in an 18 person league (really?) you gotta get big counting stats in the early rounds, cause you ain’t gonna make up for it with good later round picks.

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  16. Jason B says:

    Thanks for sharing guys. Can you load rosters by team also, or is that too cumbersome?

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  17. sgardnerUSAT says:

    Interesting that no pitcher went from 38 to 52. That left some nice SP bargains in the fourth round. Maybe it doesn’t matter what the overall pick number is, there’s a mindset of getting three good hitters before even considering a pitcher.

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  18. E says:

    Machado, Posey, and Rizzo seem too high.

    Rizzo may end up justifying that pick but there is a risk.

    The other 2, i just dont see them returning that high of a value given the people drafted after them.

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    • Brett Talley says:

      You’re the second person to question the Rizzo pick, so I guess I should explain myself. For these early season mocks I’m using rankings purely derived from Steamer projections. I’ve run all the Steamer projections through the Zach Sanders method for ranking and valuing players at the end of the season, and that boils down the Steamer projections into one number by which I can the rank players across all positions. Steamer loves Rizzo.

      Also, I always focus on power early and have no problem taking three 1B pretty early and filling out the 1B, CI and U slots. So it didn’t bother me at all to go Votto and Rizzo in the first and third.

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    • Scott Spratt says:

      I change strategies from a 10 or 12-team league to an 18-teamer with catchers. Few positions suffer as great a decline in replacement level with that jump. That’s why I took Posey as early as I did.

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  19. Jaejo says:

    Mike Zunino wasn’t even drafted? His average home run distance was 410 feet on his 5 home runs last year and now he’ll be up all year and healthy. Is his BA last year scaring everyone off?

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  20. Rob s says:

    Sandoval crazy high no?

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  21. MD says:

    I guess pitching is deep. I like the values I see late in the draft. Corbin 183, Cueto 192, Kuroda 206 CH Wilson 209, Kluber 212, Lackey 238, Kazmir 276.

    I think Corbin will be much better than people are giving him credit for. He faltered down the stretch, but it was really only a few (really) bad starts. The other guys are no superstars, but real good value this late in the draft. Lackey’s W-L record could have been much better than it was. Kazmir was surprisingly impressive and now gets to pitch in a good defense & pitchers park.

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  22. AZ says:

    Would love to hear the drafters’ thoughts on Tulo at 12. Wondering if others would have opted for Davis or Harper (or others) who were still on the board at that point due to Tulo’s injury history? Is he worth the risk late in the first round?

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    • Jack Weiland says:

      Big risk/huge potential return. If he’s healthy (I know, I know, I know) IF he’s healthy, he’s a potential 1.1 guy given how crappy the rest of shortstops are. Picking 12th in a crazy deep league I enjoy the risk/reward ratio there. It might end up in a fiery blaze, but it also might seperate me from the pack in a tightly contested league like this.

      But he WAS pretty healthy last year, and I think in general his injury risk may be a tad overblown. I may also be a complete and total idiot. Both options.

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  23. nilbog44 says:

    Jose Fernandez is way too low. #72? Behind people like jose altuve? That’s absurd

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