Fernando Martinez & Matt Dominguez: Deep League Waiver Wire

It’s time for our weekly look at the best of the worst. That’s right, it’s the deep league waiver wire where I attempt to find value in mediocre players! Today happens to be Astros day. The good thing about being a weak team is that most of your players are unowned in fantasy leagues. So that gives me multiple options for this very column.

Fernando Martinez | HOU OF | 3% Owned

Last Saturday, Martinez returned from the DL after missing time due to an oblique strain. With no guarantees in the Astros outfield and unexciting alternatives, he may finally be given an extended chance to shine. The one-time top Mets prospect is still just 24 years old, even though it feels as if he has been around forever. Amazingly, he has only accumulated 281 total plate appearances in the Majors, despite being up and down since 2009. Martinez doesn’t make great contact and he owns just about a 10% line drive rate over his limited action. That doesn’t bode well for his ability to contribute in batting average.

However, he does have power. Although he hasn’t exactly reached the potential that was once broadcast across the New York media, he has posted ISO rates of around .200 at several minor league stops. According to our power factors, Minute Maid Park inflates left-handed home runs, which could provide a nice boost to Martinez’s total. Aside from the power, he has been hitting in the two hole in the Astros order. No matter the lineup, anywhere in the top five is going to be pretty good for a hitter’s fantasy value. He has warts for sure, and several of them to be fair, but deep leaguers in need of power should give him a gander.

Matt Dominguez | HOU 3B | 9% Owned

Dominguez was the 12th overall pick in the 2007 draft by the then Florida Marlins. He hit well at Single-A in 2008, posting a .382 wOBA, including a .203 ISO, but it all went downhill offensively from there. Since then, he failed to exceed a .347 wOBA, which he posted the following season at High-A. But what Dominguez does do is make pretty good contact. His batted ball distribution this season is intriguing as well. He’s hitting more fly balls than ever, which is a good idea at Minute Maid, but of course isn’t very beneficial to his BABIP. Unfortunately, he’s also hitting pop-ups like crazy, which is another factor that is going to hurt his BABIP.

Despite the good contact, he might need some luck to even be neutral in the batting average category. The good news is that he should play nearly every day as the Astros have no strong alternatives and will want to see what they have after acquiring him last summer for Carlos Lee.




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Mike Podhorzer produces player projections using his own forecasting system and is the author of the eBook Projecting X: How to Forecast Baseball Player Performance, which teaches you how to project players yourself. His projections helped him win the inaugural 2013 Tout Wars mixed draft league. He also sells beautiful photos through his online gallery, Pod's Pics. Follow Mike on Twitter @MikePodhorzer and contact him via email.


20 Responses to “Fernando Martinez & Matt Dominguez: Deep League Waiver Wire”

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  1. Benzedrine says:

    3B is incredibly shallow this year, and now I need a Juan Franscisco replacement, since he lost his job. Would you recommend Donaldson or Valbuena over Dominguez?

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  2. UrbanShocker56 says:

    Dominguez used to have a stellar defensive reputation. Is that reputation holding up in Houston enough to keep him in the lineup if his bat slumps?

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  3. dave says:

    Add Donaldson, drop Moustakas?

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  4. slugdog says:

    Deeper! Super Deep league waiver wire please.

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  5. dave says:

    Thanks Mike. 3B is my only glaring weakness right now, and Mous is the only guy I’ve got. Mixed league, what 3B do you think represent a good bump over Mous for ROS? I have very strong RP and SP and may want to look to deal from there to improve Mous at 3B.

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    • I was kind of in the same position as you earlier in the season. I ended up with Seager in my 12 team mixed league, which clearly was a guy I would be looking to upgrade all year. But now he’s settled into the 2 hole, so I’m sticking with him.

      How about making an offer for Lawrie? He has been terrible since returning. Or maybe even be bold and offer for Aramis Ramirez, who should return in the not too distant future.

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  6. dave says:

    Haha, great minds think alike I guess. Already have an offer on the table to get Lawrie. Trade partner has wanted closers since we finished drafting, I think he basically forgot to draft a couple. He has no current closers and doesn’t really have any next men up either, so he is desperate and doesn’t sound like he wants to punt. I offered Veras for Lawrie, which is clearly lopsided, but I don’t know this guy very well and want to see how desperate he feels. I doubt he accepts, but my other closers are Wilhelmsen, Cishek, Jannsen, Mujica, and just grabbed Gregg. Which one of these, if any, is fair straight up for Lawrie? 12 team mixed, daily, 2 RP and 3 P slots that I like to have 5 closers or high level set up men in on a daily basis.

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    • Funny stuff. I’m looking at the Lawrie owner’s team in my league as well, and he needs a closer. I don’t think it matters who we feel is fair. It’s better to just rank them and then keep on offering him the next best closer until he accepts!

      Jannsen
      Wilhemsen
      Mujica
      Cishek
      Veras
      enormous gap
      Gregg

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  7. dave says:

    Sweet thanks. I guess my final question would be, you wouldn’t stop at Wilhemsen or Jannsen? You would gladly do one of them for Lawrie to upgrade Mous?

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    • On pure value, Lawrie should be worth more than any closer you have. But I still like Mous and think he should provide some mixed league value, so you have to compare the value upgrade versus losing a closer in a league where they won’t hurt your win and strikeout totals. In that sense, I’d prob stop after Mujica.

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      • dave says:

        Awesome man, thanks for the excellent feedback and articles. Sleeper and the Bust has been great so far too, keep up the good work.

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      • dave says:

        Guy countered with Chris Johnson for Mujica. Thoughts? Does Chris Johnson represent an upgrade over Mous ROS? If so, is it worth Mujica, or any of my other closers?

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      • Standard sell high attempt on his part. I’d rather Mous RoS than Johnson.

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      • dave says:

        Agreed, thanks. I’ll just keep tossing out my lower end closers for Lawrie to see if I get a bite.

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  8. kpholloway says:

    Any suggestions for a deep NL only?

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  9. buddyglass says:

    I’ve got Moustakas right now. Available on waivers are: Juan Francisco, Anthony Rendon, Chris Nelson, Lonnie Chisenhall and Matt Dominguez.

    Thoughts? It’s not a keeper league. I’m currently expecting to keep Moustakas until he gets sent down or starts losing at bats.

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