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FG+ Over/Under Game: Chris Young

This week, we’ll be giving away one FG+ membership per day by playing the FG+ Over/Under Game. The wrinkle on this game is that it’s subjective: we’ll provide a player and a number, and you use the comments section to make your best argument for the over or the under. The RotoGraphs staff will pick a winner every day, and that person will get a free subscription to FG+, which includes 11 full-length fantasy strategy articles, 1100 player caps on the player pages, and ongoing access to the FG+ blog, which features the writing the FanGraphs team provides to ESPN Insider on a weekly basis all year.

For our fifth (and final) over/under game, let’s take a look at Chris Young the outfielder.

The over/under for today’s game is 21. As in, will Chris Young hit more than 21 home runs in 2012?

If you had a subscription to FG+ right now, you could consult Jeff Zimmerman’s excellent piece about playing through injuries and the effect that has on projections. And you could learn more about Young’s batted ball distance after he injured his thumb half-way through last year.

But since you don’t have Zimmerman’s research at your fingertips — and yes, I’m suggesting that current FG + subscribers take a back seat and allow those without your knowledge to compete for this — you’ll have to do the best you can to predict the number of home runs that Chris Young the outfielder will hit in the coming season. Use any methods at your disposal.

Have at it!