Five Interesting Things from the First Five Days

Early-season baseball is a treacherous time. Though sprinkled with the classic “take it with a grain of salt” disclaimer, spring analysis remains most effective for misleading fantasy owners. Then there’s the first week of games. Show anyone 20 at-bats as a season total and perception skewing is almost a foregone conclusion. These aren’t small sample sizes, they’re dangerous sample sizes. As we all go on trying to avoid doing anything too crazy, too early, here are five interesting things from the season’s first five days:

Adrian Gonzalez hit all the home runs

Gonzalez hit three homers against the Padres Wednesday and now has five in three games. You’re not crazy if this early-season outburst seems familiar. Gonzalez hit home runs in four straight games last April. Two of this year’s home runs are classified as “Just Enoughs” on ESPN’s Home Run Tracker and only one has topped 400 feet, so he’s not exactly hitting massive shots. As his batted ball distance has decreased the past few years, Gonzalez has become more of a pull hitter. He hit double-digit home runs to the opposite field four straight seasons from 2008 to 2011, and he’s only hit 12 combined the past three seasons. All of this points to a hitter gradually losing his power, which makes sense at 32 years old. Steamer, ZiPS and the Fans projected an average of 23 home runs for Gonzalez coming into the season and that still feels about right, even after the dream start to 2015.

Steve Pearce got off to a good start

Pearce homered in each of Baltimore’s first two games to continue where he left off last season. Impressively, they both came against righties while Pearce has been better against lefties in his career. He’s not only started every game so far, he’s seen prime spots in the Oriole lineup, hitting cleanup once and in the No. 2 spot twice. I circled Pearce’s sleeper status all spring, but never fully committed to it. If the Orioles give him 500 plate appearances I will definitely be wrong for failing to pull the trigger.

Evan Gattis did not get off to a good start

The non-catching fantasy catcher is sitting on a streak of eight straight strikeouts. Fun fact: Former non-catching fantasy catcher Victor Martinez struck out a total of 10 times in a 57-game span last year. The Gattis movement was in full swing this spring as the Fans projected him for 28 home runs, 84 RBI and a .255 average. While that always seemed slightly optimistic for a contact-challenged guy who hasn’t been able to stay healthy, power from the catcher position is mighty valuable. It’s absurdly early to bail on his fantasy prospects, but as a guy who had a terrible second half of 2014, this probably isn’t what fantasy owners were looking for out the gate.

Ryan Braun got hurt

There was reason to believe offseason thumb surgery would allow Braun to be healthy for most of the 2015. That belief didn’t last long. Braun injured his side in the season opener and now fantasy owners are stuck hoping Braun doesn’t continue his trend of trying to play through lingering injuries while his performance suffers. Sometimes the rose-colored glasses are shattered quickly and it already looks like a huge risk to have expected a full, healthy season from Braun considering his age and recent history.

Carlos Gonzalez hit a home run 461 feet

That’s the longest homer of his career and a welcome sign of good health after a terrible 2014. It didn’t even happen in Colorado – though Miller Park isn’t exactly a pitcher’s haven. Gonzalez’s power sunk to career-worst levels in 2014, both by home run distance and ISO, as he hobbled through 70 games. One big home run (real big, Jonathan Broxton is still waiting for it to come down) doesn’t prove anything because performing like a star for flashes, and then getting hurt, is Gonzalez’s MO. However, it’s a good thing to see after a flare up of knee pain forced him out of a spring game.





Adam McFadden contributes to RotoGraphs when he's not working as a sports editor at MSN. His writing has appeared online for FOX Sports and Sports Illustrated.

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Jesus Can't Hit a Curveball
8 years ago

I’ll happily take 100-130 games of bounceback CarGo and a FA/waiver claim. He’s just been so good when healthy, and 461 ft is monstrous!