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For Whom the Bell Tolls; Or Why I Hate Closers
Posted By Chad Young On November 16, 2011 @ 12:15 pm In Closers,Keeper Strategy,Ottoneu,Uncategorized | 10 Comments
I hate closers. Despise them. Maybe this is a result of being an Indians fan. Jose Mesa tricked me into thinking he was lights out, then imploded at the worst possible time (although we all know Tony Fernandez deserves more of the blame). Maybe it is the endless stream of closing mediocrity I have had to watch since then. But since you are reading this on Rotographs and not an Indians blog, you have probably guessed that this really stems from fantasy baseball.
Before I dive too deep, let me begin by saying that if you are playing in a traditional 5×5 league, you can probably ignore this. If your league counts Saves but not Holds, you probably should not hate closers. I finished 4th from the bottom in saves in the lone 5×5 I played last year, and that is not where you want to be. However, if you are not playing in a league that places an extraordinary value on saves, this may be for you. It is mostly written from the perspective of the ottoneu FanGraphs Points scoring, but applies to any league where holds and saves are relatively equal (or both worth nothing).
Having said that, I want to start by looking at one closer in particular – Heath Bell. Bell has been a mainstay on my original ottoneu team since April 2007, when I won him at auction for $2. I traded him away before the 2010 season, and got him back for the stretch run that same year, and still own him today, now at $12.
But, as you are about to learn, I regret keeping Bell for 2011 and fully plan to let him go before 2012.
The problem isn’t Bell himself, it’s his title: Closer. Let’s do a quick comparison:
These are 2010 stats for four relief pitchers, including Bell. Assuming a FanGraphs points league or another league where Saves have no great value over holds, which of these guys would you want most on your team in 2011? Bell might get the nod, but it certainly isn’t a slam dunk, and it seems to me that Clippard is the guy, thanks in no small part to all those extra IP.
Instead, in the average points league, Bell went for $12. Clippard was $2; Bard was $7; Marshall was $2. For $1 less than you likely paid Bell, you could have had all three of the other guys. And in 2011, Clippard and Marshall far outperformed Bell (581 and 627 Fantasy Points respectively, compared to 515 for Bell). Bard was just behind Bell with 511.
And it isn’t just Bell. Looking at the top 15 closers (defined as the top 15 point scorers with 20+ saves) vs. the top 15 non-closers (only one of whom broke 10 saves), you get pretty staggering results:
|Role||Avg. Salary||Avg. Points|
So for a nearly 150% increase in spending, you could get a just over 2% increase in production. And this is being extremely generous to the closer group. If we only take the top 15 pre-season closers, taking away the high value provided by guys like Sergio Santos and Fernando Salas, who were not paid like closers during pre-season auctions, the numbers get worse – the price goes up to $6.61 per closer and the production drops to 554.7.
As noted at the top, all of this changes if you are in a traditional 5×5 that counts saves but not holds. On the other hand, if you don’t count saves at all (as in the ottoneu 4×4 leagues) the pendulum swings even further towards the non-closers.
Does this mean you should avoid closers like the plague? Not at all. Of the top 30 relievers, 18 had at least 20 saves, and most of those were guys who were named closers in Spring Training (or earlier). But just be sure you are paying for production, not a title.
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