Granderson Hopes 25-25 Equals Top-25

Curtis Granderson was a fantasy star in 2007, when he posted a .302-22-74-122-26 line, which was the 16th-best overall season according to the RotoTimes Player Rater. But Granderson came down with a broken finger in Spring Training last year and missed the first 21 games of the season.

He was not as dominant as he was in 2007 but Granderson still had a $16 fantasy season last year. Somewhat surprisingly, he nearly matched his big year in HR and RBIs, but fell off significantly in SB and AVG.

The projection systems do not see a rebound in average, mainly because his .302 mark in 2007 was fueled by a .362 BABIP, a mark Granderson is unlikely to duplicate. But the projections are also bearish on the 28-year old returning to 20+SB. The three systems that predict steals show him with 13 (Marcel) or 14 (Bill James and CHONE).

But there is a better chance for Granderson to approach his 2007 SB numbers than to hit .300 again. And it goes back to his broken finger. Doctors recommended that Granderson go easy in all workouts while he was recovering from the finger injury, worried that he might jar the finger and suffer a setback.

When Granderson returned, his legs were not in the shape they normally were and his running game suffered. After being successful on 26 of 27 attempts in 2007, Granderson was thrown out on four of his first eight attempts last year. But he was successful on his final eight tries of the year, and only a brutal September, in which he batted .192 with a .294 OBP, kept his attempts down.

A 25-HR, 25-SB season is not out of the question for Granderson. And combined with his likely high Runs total (he averaged 117 runs the past two seasons), Granderson has the potential to be a top-25 fantasy hitter. He currently has an ADP of 49, making Granderson a potential bargain for owners who get him in the late fourth or early fifth round.

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5 Responses to “Granderson Hopes 25-25 Equals Top-25”

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  1. JR Ewing says:

    Not arguing against Granderson being a good fantasy hitter or having potential to out-produce his ADP, but there are many guys out there with the potential to be a top-25 hitter. IMO Granderson is not significantly better than Alex Rios, Nate McLouth or Corey Hart. All of these are already going later than Granderson in drafts. Heck Alexei Ramirez could potentially put up similar numbers and be 2B/SS/OF elig in most leagues. Again not that Granderson at NO. 49 is necessarily poor value, but I definitely don’t think he’s being undervalued there when such comparable players can be had a round or two later.

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  2. Brian Joura says:

    Hi JR – thanks for reading and commenting.

    The latest update from ADP has Rios and Ramirez ahead of Granderson. Rios is just as much as a question mark as Granderson in regards to SB. He did most of his damage in the category last year in the first half when he wasn’t hitting for any power. I doubt Ramirez tops 20 in either SB or HR although the position advantage should not be ignored.

    Granderson will crush Hart in Runs. Plus our own David Golebiewski thinks pitchers figured Hart out and he needs to make a big adjustment just to get back to his 2008 numbers.

    McLouth could be better than Granderson if he plays like he did in the first half of 2008. But he had a significant drop-off in power after the All-Star break, when he hit more in line with what he did in 2007.

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  3. Mike Ketchen says:

    I did my first NFBC 15 teamer yesterday and I am happy to report we snatched up Granderson with the 2nd pick in the fourth rd. He does seem to be somewhat undervalued this season and I do not know why.

    Also I belive you can not afford to gamble to much, if at all in your first five picks and that is what taking Hart and especially Alexi is. Hart is not going to score 100+R or hit above .290 and Alexi has a one year sample size and “hack or they send you back” mentaility. If Granderson is there he is far and away one of the better values in rds 3-5.

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    • Ender says:

      Hart was a career .299 hitter in the minors and until September of last year was right around a career .290 hitter in the majors.

      Hart will also get more RBI than Granderson, I’d say their R+RBI stats will be close though I’d still give a slight nod to Granderson.

      I like Granderson more than Hart this year but it won’t surprise me even a little bit to see Hart out produce him either.

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      • Mike Ketchen says:

        Hart has never had close to 100 R scored and he has never knocked in 100. Also he has seen his K/BB slip every year. He will probably finish up with a 20/20 and he may hit .290 but Granderson is going to be a 4 cat contriubtor and he will be solid with RBI.

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