Has Orlando Cabrera Lost a Step?

When the Athletics signed Orlando Cabrera to a one-year, $4-million-dollar deal late in the offseason, Dave Cameron was not alone in lauding Billy Beane for another veteran steal.

The logic seemed unassailable. Cabrera has been a real plus on defense over the course of his career. Last year he even put up an impressive 14 runs over the average shortstop, but his glove has also averaged 7 runs over average at a premium position for three years.

Of course, his offense has been a drag on his value. Over his valuable last three years, he’s given up almost 4 runs a year with his bat. Even so, most teams would agree with his $26 million dollar value over the last three years, especially if that player came with a $4 million dollar price tag.

Then came this year. The player himself said it best to the San Francisco Chronicle: “I suck. I don’t even know how to describe it. … I suck. For real.” So what’s going on with this year’s disasterpiece? Perhaps we can use his offensive numbers to figure out what he’s lost on defense.

There are a couple issues with his plate discipline. While his walk rate and strikeout rate are right in line with his career numbers, his reach rate is up a little (27.2% over 24.1% career). With a 93.6% zone contact rate, he could stand to take advantage of that strength by reaching less often. This is nitpicking, however.

His batted ball rates are actually all perfectly in line with his career averages. It is eerie actually how Cabrera’s line drive, ground ball and fly ball rates are right in line with what he’s always done. In April, he hit 62 balls without getting a single one over 100 mph, but without historical data, it’s hard to say much about those numbers. He was never much of a slugger anyway.

No, he was more of a speedster. Since 2001, he’s averaged 21 stolen bases and a 5.3 four-component speed score. This year, he’s down to two stolen bases (against four caught-stealings) and a speed score half his average (2.5). His BABIP, a number that is tied to speed, is in a three-year decline. That’s more than a step slow, that seems like a leg or foot injury… or a quick decline.

Consider that his speed score, which was never elite in the first place, is actually in a four-year decline. His stolen-base success rate in 2008 was his lowest since 2001. It certainly looks like Orlando Cabrera has lost a step – or even more than a step. Since speed is a big part of both his offensive and defensive game, it follows that his value has quickly entered a decline phase.

Maybe this isn’t so surprising for a 34-year-old middle infielder. What is surprising is that, by using his speed score and offensive numbers, we can possibly spot a loss of speed that isn’t evident in his defensive component numbers. If he has slowed, you wouldn’t have seen it in his Range Factor, Range Runs Above Average, or Ultimate Zone Ratings over the past three years. His defensive numbers just fell off a cliff this year, with little warning. It seems that defensive statistics could use some more refining.

Either that, or Cabrera is just having an unlucky start (.250 BABIP) and a little trouble getting his motor going.

Print This Post

Graphs: Baseball, Roto, Beer, brats (OK, no graphs for that...yet), repeat. Follow him on Twitter @enosarris.

5 Responses to “Has Orlando Cabrera Lost a Step?”

You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed.
  1. Alireza says:

    I see a couple things here. 1) Cabrera does seem to have lost a step, and has been unusually sloppy with his hands as well, which has hurt his defense even more. 2) Cabrera has actually hit for decent power on the extra base end in the past, with 4 seasons in double digit homers (17 career high) and 4 seasons over 40 doubles. His SLG numbers were depressed by lower AVG rates, while he played in bigger parks and hit for better average later on.

    As for his stolen base numbers, I think that is pretty easily explained. He plays for the A’s and Billy Beane who hate the stolen base, even when done by a guy like Cabrera who has historically been a high percentage thief. Much like with Matt Holliday, Oakland was pretty much the worst place for Cabrera to play because of the tough power hitting conditions and the team’s aversion to the stolen base.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Kev says:

      Not true. Why would anyone hate the stolen base? That’s like saying you hate base hits.

      Matt Holliday has stolen eight bags this year, Rajai Davis seven, Adam Kennedy six. Davis stole 25 last year with the A’s, and Mark Ellis stole 14. Guys who can steal with a high success rate will get the green light in Oakland. The thing is, there aren’t many of these guys around.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

  2. Eno Sarris says:

    For sure, the Athletics are just about stealing efficiently. But with two successful attempts out of six, OC is no longer that.

    I know sample size is an issue, but the speed score and caught stealings seem a little extreme, and then throw in his age, and you have a pretty unappealing package.

    I’m not looking to pick him up even in my 20-teamer with an MI spot…

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Alireza says:

      Beane’s disdain for the stolen base is well documented. Ray Durham had an 80% steal rate (20/25), well above what is needed for a positive contribution, yet Beane forced him to cut his attempt rate in half after acquiring Durham by trade.

      As for Cabrera’s CS, the numbers are highly misleading. Here are the times he was caught:

      1 – PO by Jon Lester

      2 – CS by Downs/Barajas

      3 – CS by Loux/Napoli

      4 – PO by Randy Wolf

      Half his CS were pick offs by lefties, the second was a legit gun down and the third as a strike em out/throw em out.

      He has actually only attempted a steal 4 time this year, which is significantly lower than in previous years, despite the fact that Cabrera has always been a high percentage thief.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

  3. Jacob Jackson says:

    Cabrera showed up to spring training fat this year. A good 10-15 pounds overweight. I’m not one to talk, because I show up to my teaching job 10-15 pounds overweight every year, but…

    it suggests to me that he did not have a productive off season. That might also help explain his poor stolen base rates this year. His athleticism is in a natural decline, and he didn’t work out hard enough in the offseason to offset that whatsoever.

    Vote -1 Vote +1