Hitter Rankings with Bill James Projections

Just a few days ago, the Bill James Handbook Projections were added to each of the player pages. Today, I will look at the top projected fantasy hitters going into the 2013 season.

A few items to keep in mind.

1. The projections are provided to FanGraphs by Baseball Info Solutions. Our agreement with them states that the data is only to be on each player’s page and not in one location. If you want the complete data, it can be bought from BIS. Don’t ask for a full list, it can’t be given out.

2. For the rankings, I used Zack Sander’s ranking system to rate the players against all players. I ignored position rarity for today’s rankings.

3. I completed 3 rankings. The first ranking used the 5 values (AVG, HR, RBI, Runs, SB) as the Bill James Projections reported them with no adjustments. The second list, I adjusted all the numbers to 600 PAs and rounded to the nearest integer for ease of reading. Finally, the third list, I used my work from last season that predicts Run and RBI numbers as if the player hit at an average lineup position on an average team. Yes, some player on better teams will have better numbers, but this ranking helps to isolate true player talent.

4. Bill James projections are normally overly optimistic when it comes to setting a player’s talent level. Compare them to other projections as they become available.

Ranking 1: Non-adjusted rankings

Rank	Name	Position	PA	HR	AVG	RBI	R	SB
1	Mike Trout	OF	679	30	0.325	87	122	53
2	Ryan Braun	OF	668	36	0.314	112	108	24
3	Miguel Cabrera	1B/3B	682	38	0.331	126	107	3
4	Albert Pujols	1B	690	38	0.305	117	105	9
5	Matt Kemp	OF	660	31	0.298	101	103	21
6	Carlos Gonzalez	OF	622	26	0.298	96	98	20
7	Prince Fielder	1B	689	37	0.299	114	95	1
8	Josh Hamilton	OF	630	35	0.289	114	96	7
9	Paul Goldschmidt	1B	650	27	0.283	109	105	15
10	Giancarlo Stanton	OF	584	43	0.284	103	88	6
11	Yoenis Cespedes	OF	622	28	0.297	98	84	18
12	Joey Votto	1B	676	27	0.312	97	93	8
13	Jacoby Ellsbury	OF	668	15	0.294	67	100	37
14	Justin Upton	OF	655	25	0.289	86	106	19
15	David Wright	3B	665	21	0.302	100	94	16
16	Andrew McCutchen	OF	675	24	0.286	81	101	22
17	Troy Tulowitzki	SS	616	28	0.298	96	94	9
18	Robinson Cano	2B	678	27	0.306	99	100	3
19	Matt Holliday	OF	650	27	0.301	101	95	6
20	Anthony Rizzo	1B	659	33	0.283	109	86	7

Ranking 2: Everyone adjusted to 600 PA

Rank	Name	Position	HR	AVG	RBI	R	SB
1	Mike Trout	OF	27	0.325	77	108	47
2	Ryan Braun	OF	32	0.314	101	97	22
3	Miguel Cabrera	1B/3B	33	0.331	111	94	3
4	Giancarlo Stanton	OF	44	0.284	106	90	6
5	Albert Pujols	1B	33	0.305	102	91	8
6	Matt Kemp	OF	28	0.298	92	94	19
7	Josh Hamilton	OF	33	0.289	109	91	7
8	Carlos Gonzalez	OF	25	0.298	93	95	19
9	Paul Goldschmidt	1B	25	0.283	101	97	14
10	Troy Tulowitzki	SS	27	0.298	94	92	9
11	Allen Craig	1B/OF	27	0.301	105	88	3
12	Yoenis Cespedes	OF	27	0.297	95	81	17
13	Chris Davis	1B	34	0.286	100	86	3
14	Prince Fielder	1B	32	0.299	99	83	1
15	Justin Upton	OF	23	0.289	79	97	17
16	Mike Olt	1B/3B	30	0.269	114	84	7
17	Buster Posey	C	24	0.324	98	79	1
18	Will Middlebrooks	3B	31	0.277	105	80	12
19	Matt Holliday	OF	25	0.301	93	88	6
20	Starling Marte	OF	16	0.297	70	89	34

Ranking 3: Runs and RBI Normalized

Rank	Name	Position	HR	AVG	RBI	R	SB
1	Mike Trout	OF	27	0.325	91	91	47
2	Miguel Cabrera	1B/3B	33	0.331	97	97	3
3	Ryan Braun	OF	32	0.314	90	90	22
4	Giancarlo Stanton	OF	44	0.284	93	93	6
5	Albert Pujols	1B	33	0.305	93	93	8
6	Prince Fielder	1B	32	0.299	94	94	1
7	Joey Votto	1B	24	0.312	93	93	7
8	Buster Posey	C	24	0.324	90	90	1
9	Matt Kemp	OF	28	0.298	85	85	19
10	Josh Hamilton	OF	33	0.289	86	86	7
11	Yoenis Cespedes	OF	27	0.297	83	83	17
12	Troy Tulowitzki	SS	27	0.298	86	86	9
13	Jose Bautista	3B/OF	36	0.259	89	89	7
14	David Ortiz	DH	31	0.283	89	89	0
15	Carlos Gonzalez	OF	25	0.298	83	83	19
16	Matt Holliday	OF	25	0.301	86	86	6
17	David Wright	3B	19	0.302	84	84	14
18	Chris Davis	1B	34	0.286	84	84	3
19	Paul Goldschmidt	1B	25	0.283	84	84	14
20	Allen Craig	1B/OF	27	0.301	83	83	3

Notes:

1. Mike Trout projects to be the clear #1. The elite number of SB to go with the HR and AVG projects him to be the league’s best player.

2. The projections love Paul Goldschmidt. He looks to be Ryan Braun lite. The issue is that his Run and RBI seem a bit inflated in the non-adjusted table. He drops from 9th to 19th when the Runs and RBI are normalized.

3. When players are adjusted to 600 PA, a few names stick out. Chris Davis is projected to set career highs in HRs and AVG. Newcomers, Mike Olt and Will Middlebrooks are both going to hit 30 HRs. Starling Marte is going to be near a .300 AVG with 34 steals. The projections seem extremely optimistic for these unestablished players.

4. The normalized list is a ranking I would expect to see as it gets closer to draft/auction day. Huge jump for Joey Votto compared to the other two lists.

Most of the top hitters are the same as the past few years, but a few new names are included. On Wednesday, I will look at how the top starters and relievers rank with these projections.