If You Must Punt, Punt It Right

For all the years that I’ve been playing fantasy baseball, I’ve never really understood the idea of punting saves. Not that I don’t understand the concept, but that I don’t understand the rationale behind thinking that it’s a good strategy. You load up on starters with the hope of locking up wins and strikeouts while doing your best to stay competitive in WHIP and ERA. Perfectly viable strategy, right? But what about the fact that Wins is, more or less, an arbitrary category and while your guy goes seven strong and exits with the lead, some clown of a set-up man comes in, walks the leadoff guy and then serves up a two-run shot to tie the game. A great game for your starter, for sure, but you make no advancement in a category you’ve supposedly built your team to excel in.

And what about the fact that punting saves completely dismisses the benefits a solid closer gives you in stabilizing your ratios? Logging 65 innings of a 2.00 ERA does a helluva lot more to help you than 150 innings of a 4.50 mark. Obviously you’re shooting for starters with better numbers than that but really, how many of them are out there that you’re realistically going to be able to lock up onto your team? So not only are you shorting yourself completely in the saves category, but now you’re also leaving yourself vulnerable with respect to your ratios. Unless you build a rotation filled with aces, you’ve given yourself nothing more than an advantage in just one category while completely losing another and leaving your nose open on three more. An over-simplification? Maybe. But not really.

No, if you’re going to punt a category, then do it with one that isn’t going to help you cut your throat in the others. Punt batting average. Punt the sh*t out of it. I mean, really. How important is it? The category has become so obsolete that most competitive leagues don’t even use it anymore, replacing it with OBP or OPS or some other metric that’s more indicative of a player’s skill. If you’re playing in a league, whether it’s standard roto or head to head, that uses batting average as one of its categories, ignore it. You can easily build a team that excels in each of the other four standard categories regardless of what it does for you in batting average.

I mean, look at this team:

Pos Player R HR RBI SB AVG
C Matt Wieters 67 23 83 3 0.246
1B Ike Davis 66 32 90 0 0.227
2B Rickie Weeks 85 21 63 16 0.230
SS Everth Cabrera 49 2 24 44 0.246
3B Pedro Alvarez 64 30 85 1 0.244
MI Danny Espinosa 82 17 56 20 0.248
CI Adam Dunn 87 41 96 2 0.204
OF Curtis Granderson 102 43 106 10 0.232
OF Jay Bruce 89 34 99 9 0.252
OF Josh Reddick 85 32 85 11 0.242
OF B.J. Upton 79 28 78 31 0.246
OF Cameron Maybin 67 8 45 26 0.243
UT Michael Saunders 71 19 57 21 0.247
Total 993 330 967 194

Are you telling me that you couldn’t walk away from your draft with this team? I matched it up with the team I just picked in the RotoGraphs Ridiculously Early Mock Draft and this team beats the snot out of that team. This team is even competitive in stolen bases, a category I focused on in that other draft. True, a guy like Reddick needs to have the career year he just had to get the final tally, but since there’s no first rounder on this roster, let’s sub in that guy for him then. What If I took Giancarlo Stanton and his, more than likely, .260 average? I’m actually coming out even better. There are tons of guys out there that fit the bill here, so if you’re thinking that two or three on this team have too similar ADPs to be able to get them all, then mix and match other players that have lousy averages and quality stats elsewhere. There are plenty.

So when you’re coming up with your game plan for this year and the thought pops into your head about punting a category, do it the right way. Be smart. Punt the category that truly means the least and where taking a zero in it won’t hurt you everywhere else. Yes, the closers can be tough to take with so much volatility at the position, but I’d rather fight for a decent reliever on the waiver wire than have to sweat something as pointless as batting average.




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Howard Bender has been covering fantasy sports for over 10 years on a variety of websites. In addition to his work here, you can also find him at his site, RotobuzzGuy.com, Fantasy Alarm, RotoWire and Mock Draft Central. Follow him on Twitter at @rotobuzzguy or for more direct questions or comments, email him at rotobuzzguy@gmail.com


59 Responses to “If You Must Punt, Punt It Right”

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  1. harpago17 says:

    This is a pretty good idea, but I do think you are discounting the idea of punting saves a bit. While I agree that having a good closer can help you ERA and WHIP categories, having a good non-closing reliever can do the same thing, and there are plenty of those guys to be had at the very back end of a draft. So spend you early picks on stud SP, ignore the closer run, and pick up guys like O’Flaherty, Venters, Clippard, Marshall, and others at the end of the draft.

    Great thing is, that some of them are going to fall into saves anyway, so you might accidentally get enough to not finish last, or at the very least end up with valuable trade chips in season to shore up your other categories.

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    • Jimbo says:

      good point about the non-closer RP. if you punt saves, then you have a wider range of choices at RP and can (probably) get even better ratio stats than owners who take token closers JUST for saves.

      with some luck your setup men can even chip in 10 wins or so…

      personally i prefer the pseudo-punt. draft your upside starters, figure out who is boom/bust, then add FREE closers as the inevitable waiver gems come up. might not win saves, since you’re giving others a head start, but can quite easily finish middle of the pack.

      planning to finish last in any category really narrows your margin for error everywhere else.

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    • Stuck in a slump says:

      I tend to follow this mentality myself, and I often target the same guys over and over again. In one league I got Frieri and Romo back to back seasons. Last year, I ended up with McGee as well as Kelvin Herrera. Those four really helped out when guys like Lester flamed out on me, and I even won the SV category a few times, which I never did in previous years.

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    • steveb says:

      If they are sitting on the bench, they won’t help your team. If they get lowered in the batting order, they aren’t going to see the pitches they would see if they had two men on, and were batting clean up. So, you certainly could have several of those .240 hitters that end up hitting 8th or 9th. So, you take a big hit in the categories you’re trying to build, along with a terrible batting average.

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  2. Adam Duninator says:

    If you are in a league that substituted OBP for AVG, could you do the same thing with OBP?

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    • Jacob Smith says:

      Since it’s a single ratio that isn’t really related to the rest of the traditional counting categories directly, yes.

      You can’t punt ERA because you’ll end up punting WHIP as well, ditto with trying to punt WHIP.

      Punting OBP doesn’t necessarily hurt you in HRs, Rs, RBI, or SB. If your league uses OBP and wOBA or another offensive ratio category, that’s when punting Avg/OBP gets dicey.

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      • David says:

        Meh. I dunno about that. OBP is life. If you aren’t on base it’s harder to score runs and steal bases. It’s one thing to punt AVG and target guys who are under appreciated because the walks they take don’t help directly, but the pool of players who can pair a low OBP with true productivity is very small. You’ll end up filling out your roster with single category specialists who kill you everywhere else.

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      • Gump says:

        OBP is directly related to R I would assume.

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  3. d_i says:

    My league is 8×6 (OBP, Slug, and RC as extra) that obviously slants towards the offsense. Since ave is a component of all three of those, it’s probably the single most important category in our league. I much more readily “punt” our net steals category.

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  4. Scott says:

    for traditional 5×5 I will have to respectfully disagree with punting BA. Punting BA can also tank you in RBI to a surprising degree: not too many runs get driven in via BB. If you have a bunch of sub .260 hitters they are going to struggle to post league average OBP’s and R will suffer too. These guys often hit #6 or 7 rather than 3-5 as well.

    I can see the approach having its merits if you get a bunch of very high-power low BA guys but you’ll still have a very boom or bust offense (especially frustrating in H2H).

    Low AVG hitters are also more prone to slumps (maybe this is anecdotal but I recall hitter volatility being highly correlated to contact skills) and are probably in greater jeopardy of falling off/losing their jobs.

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    • Jimbo says:

      i think the rbi risk can be more related to K% than BA. man on third, less than two outs, and i’ll take any contact maker over adam dunn. still, how many rbi does he strand that way over a season? maybe 10? is that worth the extra rounds you need to pay for ike davis this year?

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      • Scott says:

        I see K% and BA as intertwined concepts….if you have a high K% you are more than likely to post a low BA…. Also don’t discount how many runners on 2nd don’t get plated when the batter at the plate is a low BA guy who doesn’t hit many singles or doubles.

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      • Scott says:

        Also, since when is Ike Davis a paragon of BA?

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      • Jimbo says:

        @Scott
        Expecting everyone to mind-read, I was alluding to a 24% K rate player in ike vs a 34% K rate player like dunn.

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  5. DrBGiantsfan says:

    Last year, I assiduously avoided hitters who would hurt my BA. I won my H2H league championship. BA was often the difference between winning and tying my H2H week. That was particularly true in the playoffs where I won the final round 6-4.

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    • Scott says:

      ^This….jettisoning BJ upton and Danny Espinosa (two poster boys for punting BA but getting burned simultaneously in R/RBI) was the key to my 5×5 h2h championship this past year. The team that puts up a better BA wins R/RBI most weeks. Especially if you select for high contact guys w/ low K rates rather than getting fooled by Mike Morse sorts who occasionally hit .290……

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  6. David Wiers says:

    I prefer to punt saves actually.

    Closers are so ephemeral in baseball that it is hard for me to grab them. I see guys like Axford last year racking up the saves and destroying your ratios. I know it is due to the small sample size and not his true talent size, but still.

    I wrote up this on page 40 of Big Leagues Magazine’s December issue: http://www.bigleaguesmonthly.com/

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    • Ozzie says:

      To some extent I agree with you- last year I owned Axford and a plethora of other poor relievers and they hurt my ERA/WHIP.

      But the year before I won my league. When I had Hanrahan, Farnsworth and Papelbon. Not only do they keep your Ks high, good relievers help to mitigate those sh*t starts your SPs throw in.

      I might try a punting strategy this year, but I have my doubts it will improve my chances of winning should I choose to do so.

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  7. wjylaw says:

    Other than HR’s that team doesn’t win another offensive category and probably finishes somewhere between third and sixth in the other categories. At best you have a slightly above offense. Seems like a waste of effort as some of those guys will lose playing time with their god awful averages which in part factor into OBP and SLG.

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    • Jimbo says:

      i took his point to be that you should be able to do better than that roster. it was meant to be an extreme example methinks.

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      • Ozzie says:

        How do you figure? Based off of those projections I see him near the top in everything except BA. When you REALLY punt BA as Howard has here, I have to say I am pretty impressed with the team he put together. Now I’d have to see the pitching to be completely sold.

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      • Howard Bender says:

        correct.

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      • NBH says:

        I ran Howard’s numbers through my 12 team 5×5. 7 points for runs, 12 for HR, 8 for RBI and 10 for steals (0 for AVG). He actually had a huge overabundance of HR, so with a little tinkering he could pick up some more runs/RBI at the expense of HR. Maybe a Markakis over Maybin or Saunders? So that is 37 points of offense out of 60 – not so hot.

        However, Howard doesn’t have a 1st round pick here, so let’s give him Kershaw or Verlander or Strasburg in R1. Granderson, Bruce and Upton will be R2, R3 and R4 picks. In R5 he can get another SP (Scherzer? Medlen? Bumgarner?) and since his lineup really doesn’t have any other highly ranked bats (who is the next best bat – Ike Davis? Dunn? R7? R8?) he can load up on quality SPs and closers. If he gets 10 of 12 points in all the pitching stats he will finish with 87 points – 3rd or 4th place using my league history.

        My takeaway – punting an offensive category looks like it’s a pitching heavy strategy (at least in this example). Since pitching is harder to project than hitting I wouldn’t expect this strategy to be hugely successful in the long run.

        Also, as other have pointed out, if your team AVG is projected to be .238 (like Howard’s team), that means by Memorial Day, some guys will be hitting .278 while others will be hitting .198. The list of players who will be allowed to keep all their at bats while hitting .198 is small. That .198 is going to lead to decreased at bats and counting stats.

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    • Howard Bender says:

      That was strictly a base roster. Obviously when you have a group of low-BA guys like that you’re going to need to supplement with a couple of bench guys to handle some of the coldest of cold streaks.

      And those actually aren’t projections….those are final 2012 stats.

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      • Jimbo says:

        unadjusted for PA?

        if so there’s probably a chunk of replacement stats that would’ve been added as well…

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  8. Evil Empire says:

    Punt BA? That doesn’t seem right at all. BA is (to me) a very important category. With a higher BA, you will just by the laws of big numbers, produce more runs and RBI. Low BA = low BARISP. Get ready for this, Howard, cause you may not like it! If you are going to punt ANY offensive category, you should punt steals for a couple reasons. Steals are not connected to any of the other scoring categories. You can argue that the steal guys hit at the top of the order, and therefore you may lose some runs by not drafting those guys, but the small difference there will be offset by the increase in RBI and power you get with the players you draft instead. Plus, if you change your mind later, you can trade or perhaps pick up a SB guy and move in that category much faster than the other hitting categories.

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    • Howard Bender says:

      punt steals? BLASPHEMY!!!

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      • Slava says:

        Punting steals is a bad strategy because you can easily find balance with certain high steal, power, counting stats. This is especially true with OF.

        If you’re even just OK at steals, you can put yourself over the top with a WW guy since steals are perhaps the easiest stat to find on waivers provided you didn’t completely ignore it during the draft.

        Lastly, steals is a good category to pad when someone in your Middle IF or OF goes down. Guys like Evreth Cabrera and Will Venable are great to own for a few weeks and gain a bit of ground until you get your guy gets back from the DL. You’ll lose HR and RBI but who on the WW is going to keep pace anyway?

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  9. Jimbo says:

    i agree with punting OBSESSION for average, but i still try to avoid too many known killers there. for one it does reduce rbi/runs, but it also gives you a shot at 5-9 points, depending what others in the league do.

    one year i actually tried to dominate avg and came in last for the category. taught me that you can’t predict what a fantasy team is going to do there, so now i just try to balance any uggla/dunn types with a compensating sandoval/prado type. the combination comes cheaper than what they average per player.

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    • Scott says:

      This seems quite reasonable. I like to use contact% and K% as proxies for BA ability….mix that with a little blend of ISO/park factors and BAM….you’ve got a soup….or a method to predict BA to a degree…I forget which.

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  10. Scott says:

    Nobody writes an article that gets the fantasy nerds (or at least me) to come out of the woodwork in the comments like Howard Bender…well done sir.

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  11. CookieRojas16 says:

    The problem is that this is a retrospective illustration. Sure, we’d all like to have had Alvarez’s 30 homers by October, but who would have had the stomach to go with him as a starting 3B coming out of a mixed league draft last March? Or Dunn at CI, or Cabrera at SS? I don’t reject the proposition that you can win while punting BA, but it’s harder than it looks in this example. Unless you make sure you are getting guys who walk a lot, you are not going to come close to the top in runs either.

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  12. MustBunique says:

    The Jet punts on everything and goes for 500 SBs!

    I don’t like punting on BA. I was discussing this recently with a couple of league-mates of mine, and I was on the side of paying less attention to BA. I somehow despite being very competitive in HR and RBI have been lacking in R. My buddies mentioned that while BA is certainly not the only part of getting on base, it plays a part, and that unless I was making sure the guys I picked were high OBP guys who had low averages, I should expect and impact in R.

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  13. AJ says:

    I’ve punted BA before and I’ll say that it can work if you do it right. First off, these people saying that by punting AVG, you’ll lose R/RBI are completely wrong. You’ll be fine in R if you get 3 true outcome guys. And RBI is WAY more correlated with power than it is with average. Adam Dunn had 100 RBI last year.

    There are a couple of things you need to be careful with though:

    (1) Because MLB undervalues OBP, guys with low BA are more likely to lose their jobs than others. This can create problems.
    (2) Make sure that you take you pay market value for the low average players you are targeting. The entire strategy is premised on gaining an advantage by paying market value for players whose value to you (because their AVG doesn’t matter) exceeds that market value. Once you start overpaying (e.g. you get into a bidding war with others employing the same strategy), you give away that advantage.

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  14. MikeP says:

    This is how I won my AL only league last year. Additionally, I focus on getting 3 aces in the first six rounds (I got Price, Shields and Wilson) and added guys like Reynolds, Dunn, and Reddick later. Obviously, if you’re dumping any category you have to max out all the rest, so it seems to me if you don’t reallocate your dollars or picks to pitching, you’re in trouble.

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  15. jim says:

    it’s pretty easy to punt saves and still get good relievers

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  16. Jake says:

    The thing that seems to always be left out in the punting saves discussion is who are you drafting with those 3-4 picks in rounds 12-22? I’m assuming a player who is even considering punting saves, is also one who will not draft the top tier closers. Is punting an entire category of saves really worth taking a flyer on your 5th OFer, grabbing that SP for his first full season after TJ surgery hoping he returns to ace form, and that buzzy prospect who might win a job in spring training?

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    • Jimbo says:

      Considering I drafted Ian Desmond and Austin Jackson in those rounds last year, I’d say so.

      Had to pass on Sergio Santos as my 2nd RP to get AJax.

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      • Jake says:

        Yeah sometimes you hit gold in the later rounds. It’s just been my experience that in a standard 10 or 12 team league… there is a better chance of any player being drafted after round 13 or 14 ending up on the waiver wire than on your roster at the end of the year.

        What has a better chance of happening?
        Drafting 3 closers in rounds 15, 16, and 18 and ending up in the middle of your roto standings for saves.
        Or
        Drafting batters in rounds 15, 16, and 18 and having them win you 5-6 roto points on their own?

        I’ll never punt saves, it’s too easy to gain at least some value in the category, even if it’s just a few weekly wins in head to head or a few roto points.

        If a draft is all about gaining the most value out of each pick, than the lower tier closers can be some of the best values in a draft. Especially if you draft the great tier 2 starters or 30 HR bat while everyone goes on closer runs early.

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  17. Ian says:

    On the pitching side in a H2H league, I think it all depends on your league settings, in terms of SP/RP/P slots and inning settings. If forced to pick between the two, I’d punt W’s all day before SV’s. W’s are so random from week to week, and you can always stream a start or two off the waiver wire if you’re close to winning W’s that week. Much harder to stream SV’s late in the week, as most closers are typically taken.

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  18. Don Pardo says:

    Punt wins.

    Get 2 or 3 good SP to help keep your ERA and WHIP stable and rack up a few hundred K’s…and then roll out 4-5 closers every day for the first half of the year. They won’t hurt your ratios and will pitch in with a few K’s of their own.

    By the time the ASB rolls around, you can have a 30-40 save gap between yourself and the 2nd place team in that category, and you can deal all but one or two of those closers to fill in whatever gaps are in your roster, Then coast to a top-3 finish in saves and solid ERA/WHIP/K numbers.

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  19. supershredder says:

    I never punt. I may choose a category or two to not try and win (like BA, SB or SV). But I try to at least finish 2nd or 3rd from last or something to get a few points.

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  20. SJ says:

    If you punt AVG, you can “stream” hitters in for off-day starters and maximize the counting stats without risk. :)

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  21. AJ says:

    The other thing with punting BA is that you’d better be patient. It can be pretty frustrating to watch your team put up a week’s worth of 3/35 days.

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  22. Jimbo says:

    The goal is to get more points than your competitors. In a 12 team league, to take a “1” in any category (basic 5×5), your strategy would have to net more than 11 points in the other 9.

    Punting saves:
    Wins and k’s should contribute some of those 11 points. ERA/WHIP is a tough one to dominate with an all-starter approach. Certainly can’t assume a gain in points. So to punt saves requires a benefit mostly on offense…which to Jake’s point above likely isn’t going to come from mid/late round picks (assuming that’s where you’d draft closers).

    Punting avg:
    Most common misconception in the comments is that you’re TRYING to draft a horrible average team. To me the poster boy is Curtis Granderson. How much earlier would he be drafted the last couple years with a .300 avg?? First or second round easy. So by not caring about his low average, you essentially get top-tier production at a ‘discount’ in the early rounds.

    The mid-round impact is that while others are adding Martin Prado for his ‘help in the average category’ you can add Mark Reynolds stress-free.
    (sb category would function similarly to avg, but are more predictable and the less-ideal to punt imo.)

    Last thing? In batting average, there can always be surprises. Maybe a couple other teams fall below yours…maybe your team surprises. Never know on draft day. But if you come away with 0 saves by punting, then it is hard to hold out hope for even a couple ‘bonus’ points. Anyone ever been in a league where a couple points changes the outcome??

    While I’m not comfortable with any punting, the cost/benefit clearly does favor punting avg vs saves. Choosing the right players for said approach is still key.

    My strategy is to target middle of the pack finishes in sb and saves. Come mid-season those usually start to ‘stratify’ and then you can target where your best bang for the buck is. Lots of teams pulling away in sb? Just aim to stay ahead of the teams behind you. Have 5 points in saves within reach? Go add a closer. This way I always spend as little as possible to get 10-12 points from ‘puntable’ categories.

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  23. NBH says:

    40 comments and I don’t think anyone said the following:

    It’s virtually impossible to win a competitive league by punting any category. I’ve only been playing since 2008, but over my 5 seasons playing in a moderately competitive 5×5 12 team league there has never been a 1st place team that has punted any category. Most first place teams score 90something points which is 9 or 10 points per category. If you score a zero in any one category you need 10 or 11 points in the other 9 categories to win. That’s doable, but very hard.

    Punting can help you lock in third or fourth place depending on your league setup. For example, in a 12 team league, if you only draft hitters and elite closers and use terrible 2 start waiver wire SPs each week to get you wins and Ks (assuming no IP caps), you can get around 55 points of offense, 10 points in saves and 16 to 20 points in Ks/wins/ERA/WHIP for a total of 81 to 85 points, good enough for a prize. Probably a few points less if you can’t get any quality waiver wire SPs to stick long term.

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    • Jason B says:

      Prepared to be nerded out with 35 comments of “Well in my awesome league of super smart engineers and programmers in the greater Peoria area, I am proud to say I punted category X and won my league in 1997 and again in 2008!” Sit back and enjoy story time, kiddies…

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  24. Paddy says:

    This is exactly right. I’m targeting raw power that can be found for cheap in the later rounds (Dayan Viciedo, Pedro Alvarez, Ike Davis, Colby Rasmus). In the first part of the draft, though, I’ll snag some players with high batting averages (Salvador Perez, Pablo Sandoval, Nick Markakis) since you know they’re steady contributors and will not lose a spot in the batting lineup.

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  25. uspsjeter2 says:

    My preference is to think about these things mathematically (hey that’s kinda the theme for this website!). Let’s assume 12 teams and 10 categories and 90 points being a winning Roto league finish. That equates to 9 points per category, a top-4 finish on average per. By punting a category, and assuming a last-place finish that’s 8 points that must be made up by the sum of the remaining categories. Not even one point per category. No big deal, right? If you punt AVG., coming in last, and finish 2nd everywhere else on offense, that’s 45 points. You must average only a 4th place finish in every pitching category to reach 90 total points. Which is what you needed in the first place. A team with 80% of the stats of Bender’s would tower over most leagues offensively. I say dumping AVG. is perfectly viable. Thanks Howard!

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    • NBH says:

      I went back and looked at the standings in my 12 team 5×5 league over the past 4 seasons. The winning team averaged 103 points and a 90 point finish was only good enough for third place three times and a tie for second place once.

      I just don’t think punting categories is a viable strategy in most standard formats. Obviously the more categories you have the more viable punting becomes, but punting has a poor track record in my league.

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  26. Dave says:

    Just did a mock and punted BA. Projected # 1. I win.

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  27. SDPads says:

    I won a very competitive 16-team league finishing dead last in AVG. And I won going away….by 13 points. So….it can certainly be done.

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