Matt Joyce is a Choice Bargain?
It doesn’t seem like we’re already a quarter of the way through the baseball season, but here we are. The player rankings are headlined by familiar names like Jose Bautista, Ryan Braun, Dan Haren, Jeff Weaver, Roy Halladay, etc. Even names like Lance Berkman, Curtis Granderson, and Matt Kemp have had success recently enough that seeing their names among the best players in fantasy to this point doesn’t seem like that much of a shock.
However, there are a few players who appear in the upper echelon of nearly every player ranking that are proving to be serious bargains at the quarter way mark. I guess depending on where you drafted Jose Bautista he could be considered a bargain as well, but he’s on another planet right now. I’m talking about players who were drafted in AL or NL only leagues but rarely made a roster in standard mixed leagues.
Nearly a month ago our own Chris Cwik penned a waiver wire post that included Matthew Ryan Joyce. At the time of publication Joyce was just starting to heat up – owned in only 7.2% of leagues – and it was unclear just how long he could sustain his recent success. Cwik writes:
“Over his last six games, Joyce has drilled eleven hits. While we shouldn’t make much of such a small sample, Joyce seems to be heating up.”
Well, that sample is larger now. Over the past 28 days Joyce is hitting .414/.469/.757 with six home runs and 15 RBI and is a must start in any format at the moment. Those numbers are also mostly without Evan Longoria hitting in front of him in the lineup. I’m not a huge believer in lineup protection making a big difference, but there will be difference in your production when you’re hitting behind Longoria instead of Jose Lopez.
Is he going to continue hitting .368? His .416 BABiP would suggest otherwise. While that BABiP is high, it’s mostly due to his extremely high line drive percentage. Currently it sits at 29.5%, or nearly 10% higher than his career norms. In our spiffy Saber Library we explain that LD% tends to stabilize at 150 PA. Joyce is currently sitting at 132 PA, so it’s not out of the realm of possibility that he could sustain a LD% close to his current total, thus helping to prop up his BABIP. Joyce’s rest of season ZiPS projections call for him to hit .258/.349/.453 with 13 more home runs from here on out. I wouldn’t put a lot of stock in those projections however, as they take into account his 2009 and 2010 seasons when Joyce didn’t have the playing time, and wasn’t the hitter he is today.
The Rays are still going to sit him against most left handed pitchers, unless they have a reverse platoon split. It’s not a large sample, under 80 PA, but Joyce has a sub .600 OPS against southpaws. Even if he only plays against right handed pitchers – there are enough of them in the league – he should continue being one of the best bargains in fantasy baseball.
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regress, does he outdo m brantley or lomo the rest of the way?we shall see. should be fun, eveery year new suprises.
Erik,
Did you mean Felipe Lopez? Regardless, great piece. I really enjoyed it.
Cody
Errrr yes, I do. Thanks.
No problem. :)
Michael Brantley > Matt Joyce from here on out in my opinion.
What makes you say that? Joyce will certainly provide more power.
He probably was able to get Brantley in his fantasy league and not Joyce.
Both are great bargains. I’m happy to own both in both of my money leagues.
Matt Joyce is the first platoon player I cared to own and actually manage. He has given me reason to click ahead and check the pitching matchups for the following day. BABIP is worrisome but that’s an interesting tidbit about the LD%. If he can make headway against lefties, this is 30hr talent.
Where can I find rest of season ZiPS projections for other players? That would be a great tool to have for evaluatinig trade proposals. In a 4×4 AL-only leage, I have an offer asking for Matt Joyce in exchange for Brian Roberts and would love to know what Robert’s rest of season ZiPS projection is (injury risk notwithstanding).
They’re on the player pages. If you look under their 2011 season totals you should see a ZIPS (R) and a ZIPS (U). The R is for rest of season, and the U is the updated projected totals.
Try posting the offer at tradebashers, rjmusil. You input the players and league details and everybody votes on which side of the trade they’d prefer. So you can go back to the other manager and instead of just saying “your offer stinks” you can say, “89% of managers think your trade stinks.”
By the way, I think you’re misapplying your saber principles if you think a 29.5% LD rate is sustainable just because LD rate begins to have statistical significance at 150 PA.
I did some playing around with LD rate in the leaders page, arbitrarily choosing 2008-2011 with a 110 PA threshold. The highest LD rate is Jamie Moyer’s 29.2%. In fact there are a lot of pitchers on the list. It’s interesting.
But I digress. Expecting a 29.5% line drive rate going forward is like expecting Jose Bautista to hit 70 home runs. It could happen but you should be very surprised by it.
Unless it’s Jose Bautista. :-D
If Albert Pujols, Joey Votto, Miguel Cabrera and the rest of the best hitters in this game can’t sustain season-long LD rates above 22% or so, how in the hell can you justify Matt Joyce hitting 30% liners??
Jeff Weaver?
You mean Jered Weaver right?
Three weeks ago I traded Russell Martin and Tyler Colvin for Brett Gardner and Matt Joyce.
Platooning big-split players is something I started doing last year with Seth Smith, with mild success. With the majority of pitchers being RHP’s, I think this strategy works pretty well, even if one doesn’t have the counterpart player (Spilbourgh). This year I have Smith and Joyce in all three of my leagues, except for one in which I recently traded away Smith and A. Soriano for Michael Bourn and Hafner, because I needed SB’s.
Matt Joyce ’11 is starting to look very Brad Hawpe ’06-’09.
I’m pretty thrilled to get him in my league. I actually overpaid ($17) for him late in the draft, because I (and a few other people) had too much money left on the table and there were too few outfielders with any prospects to be decent left (this is a deep 12 team AL only league). He’s kept me near the top on offense through the Hardy and Longoria injuries.