2009 Bill James Handbook Projections

by David Appelman - November 13, 2008

They’re here!

The 2009 Bill James Handbook projections are now available on FanGraphs in the individual player pages. Big thanks to Baseball Info Solutions for letting us run these for the 3rd year in a row! If you want the sortable stats version and are not content with seeing one player at a time, you will have to purchase a copy directly from them.

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David Appelman is the creator of FanGraphs.

3 Responses to “2009 Bill James Handbook Projections”

1. Mike Ketchen says:

   November 13, 2008 at 3:06 pm

   A question I have is how do these projections equate with leageu average stats. For example (and please correct me if I am wrong or off base as I am still relativeley new to all this) Andrew Miller had a far below average LOB% and a high BABIP (.346) yet his ERA is suggested to stay at nearly five, despite his skill set suggesting it should be much lower. Now I know the defence behind him will not be improved, so do the projections factor this in? Thank you for any help you can provide.
   

   

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2. David Appelman says:

   November 13, 2008 at 3:23 pm

   I think BIS looks at career rates for BABIP like stats and then mixes it with some form of defensive rating for the team he’s on, and I’m guessing they regress it a bit too.

   So, with a guy like Andrew Miller, his .327 projected BABIP is definitely lower than his career total of .340, but a lot higher than the norm.

   I don’t think the 4.75-ish ERA is particularly unfair for Miller despite the high projected BABIP. He has a very low HR/FB rate, which will probably regress considerably and if you factor that into his skillset, you get what would be an ERA more around his projected one.
   

   

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3. Mike Ketchen says:

   November 13, 2008 at 11:42 pm

   Thanks for some information with this, it is much appreciated.
   

   

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