2009 Impact Rookie: Elvis Andrus
In recent seasons hitting has not been an issue for the Texas Rangers ball club. Pitching and defense, though, have been a different stories. The club has been unable to obtain top free agent pitchers to the club, so it must continue to wait for some of the impressive, young pitchers that are currently being developed on the farm (And there are quite a few of them).
As for defense, the club is looking to improve in that area ASAP. Incumbent shortstop Michael Young has been moved to third base, where his lack of range will be less of an issue and he should continue to benefit from good hands and strong throws from the hot corner. The shortstop position has been handed to rookie Elvis Andrus, who was originally obtained from the Atlanta Braves in the Mark Teixeira trade in 2007.
There are some good reasons to be concerned about Andrus this season. He is just 20 years of age and has only 482 at-bats above A-ball and zero experience at the Major League level. On the plus side, though, he did hit .295/.350/.367 with 53 stolen bases. His career line in just under 1,600 at-bats is .275/.343/.361. So far this spring, Andrus is batting .267/.308/.317 with three stolen bases.
The Venezuela native is obviously not going to hit for much power in the Majors with 25 extra bases hits and an ISO of .073 in Double-A, so he’ll have to contribute offensively by playing small ball and using his speed. The good news is that Andrus won’t need to chip in significantly with the bat with the likes of Chris Davis, Josh Hamilton, and Ian Kinsler in the everyday line-up.
Defensively, Andrus has solid actions and excellent range. He still makes too many errors (more than 30 in each of the past three years) but many of those were careless. The club brought in defensive whiz Omar Vizquel as a non-roster invitee as insurance for Andrus, but the veteran could spend the year schooling the youngster on defensive consistency.
From a fantasy perspective, Andrus is not likely to have a huge impact in 2009, although he could be the source of some cheap steals. His value will come on the field – and especially in future seasons – for the Rangers.
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I have Ellsbury, Andrus, and Nelson Cruz in a very deep (12 team) AL-only roto league. Assuming steal are fairly evenly spread in my league, can I pretty much ignore anything more than incidental steals (guys likely to be in the 2 – 5 range) from the rest of my team? my other keepers are MByrd (cheap), Polanco, 3b Fields, and KMorales.
I’m in a similar league. In the past three years the team that finished third in steals averaged 122 steals compared to a median of 96. My goal is to finish third or better in each category (which much more often than not lead to winning the league). Figure Ellsbury will get you 45, Andrus will get you 30, Polanco will get you 7, Byrd will get you 5 (with reduced pt) and Cruz will get you 12. That leave you with 99 with seven more roster spots to get 23 steals. You’re probably fine; I’d focus on other areas, though it never hurts to have a cushion in each category — in this case a player who helps you elsewhere can also deliver 10-15 steals.
Andrus’s fantasy impact really depends upon the type of league that’s involved. In a four-category keeper-roto-league using traditional offensive measures and a reserve on which rookie keepers are eligible, stolen bases are the most scarce of offensive commodities. Being able to stash Andrus on a reserve at no cost during the auction is a free source of likely 30 to 40 steals and also creates an open spot for an active roster spot that could typically be used to get a top prospect such as Gordon Beckham at the league-minimum price.
Andrus is not a Evan Longoria by any stretch and in that sense he won’t have a huge fantasy impact, but it seems to me that the Longorias of the world are rare, and fantasy leagues are won and lost by more incremental improvements, which is to say Andrus can play a helpful role.
Thanks Jonathan. Our rules are close to what you describe, but with no real reserve for players on a major league roster. We have an exception for farm draftees, who we draft separately and can stay inactive until they use up rookie eligibility. That’s how I have Andrus. I can activate him after the auction to replace a nominal $1 SS, which is how I’ll play it.