The common rule of thumb is that three years of UZR data helps you make make a more convicting conclusion. But things happen. Injuries decimated the Mets last year and this killed the teams offensive production (the only team in the MLB that hit BELOW 100 HRs last year as a team) and also affected the clubs defense among other things.

UZR is a great tool. But it’s not the only one. Dewan’s +/-, the fans scouting reports, scouting observations, etc. help paint the full picture of player’s defensive abilities. I like UZR and it’s a great tool and one of the better metrics we have here at Fangraphs.

But it’s not gospel. For example…UZR had Jacoby Ellsbury at -18.6 in CF last year and at 16.5 (in all three OF spots) in 2008. I’ve seen Ellsbury play a lot and I just can’t comprehend that UZR has him at -18.6 runs in CF. It makes no sense to me. Hopefully that data evens out over time because right now it’s all over the place….

The Mets were a bad defensive team in 2009. UZR says it. Scouts will say it too. Either way expect a better defensive team in 2010 which will help out Mike Pelfrey and the clubs pitchers.

I understand your reservations with Beltran and Reyes. But healthy years from them would certainly enhance the teams defense. It’s likely that it happens.

I’m just not sold on Pelfrey at all. There is almost nothing in his peripherals that I like (I like his high groundball rate). A career 1.52 K/BB rate that includes a meager 5.17 K/9 doesn’t give me much optimism for a vast improvement. No matter what his sinker is doing, better or worse, hitters have made better contact on his pitches for three years running. Other than the assumption of wins, which I try to avoid, Pelfrey doesn’t provide value in any other category really. His career best WHIP of 1.36 is below average and it is unlikely that he’ll contribute much in the strikeout category.

All that being said, sinker/groundball pitchers definitely have the ability to put together sub 4.00 ERA season’s out of the blue sometimes. However, there is always a lot of risk involved in low strikeout guys and the reward isn’t as high as a pitcher who can contribute more K’s.

“He could be had towards the middle rounds and he would offer your team some intriguing upside”

I won’t be taking Pelfrey in the middle rounds, no way no how, but I don’t think I’ll have to either. His ADP at mockdraftcentral.com is 378, so if anything he’s a last round flier in my eyes. Actually, I’d rather not even go there.

Also, about the defense: There are some serious questions about Carlos Beltran’s ability to stay in center due to his knee problems. Jose Reyes’ torn hamstring carries plenty of question marks as well. Reports say that the Mets are going hard after Jason Bay. If they sign Bay to play LF, the Mets defense will get significantly worse. We’ll have to see what happens with the D.

2007 (only 99 pitches): 7.8 Z
2008: 7.4 Z
2009: 6.5 Z

That’s an inch LESS vertical this year. Is it not?

I would also guess that the homers came on the sinker, thus the large change in run value. He had a rough strand rate too.