2011 Closer Rankings: July
We’re now halfway through the season, so let’s update our rankings of the guys shutting things down in the ninth inning. Here are the preseason, May, and June rankings for reference, as well as the saves leaderboard. This rankings are based on three things (in no particular order): current performance, expected future performance, and job security. That last one is important for closers but not always easy to gauge. There hasn’t been a ton of movement in the last month, but there’s always some…
Tier One
Brian Wilson
Jonathan Papelbon
Heath Bell
Craig Kimbrel 
Joakim Soria
Kimbrel joins the top tier because his stellar performance is now three months old (really more if you go back to last season), though I’m concerned about his workload (on pace for ~90 IP/appearances). I wouldn’t be surprised if Jonny Venters steals some saves down the stretch, though he’s not exactly underworked either. Soria jumps back into the top tier after a stellar June, rebounding from a brutal start to the season and a temporary demotion. Bell dropped within the teir because his strikeouts are down considerably, like four strikeouts per nine have gone missing, and there’s a pretty darn good chance that he’ll be on another team and not even closing the next time we update these rankings. Wilson has been getting his walk problem under control and Papelbon battled through a short little rough stretch not too long ago. His peripherals are still fantastic and his team great.
Tier Two
Mariano Rivera
Leo Nunez
Carlos Marmol
John Axford
Joel Hanrahan
Rivera is still the king of kings, but he’s also 42 years old. A minor triceps/elbow issue has him on the sidelines right now, and it’s nagging injuries like that that have limited his value somewhat over the last few years. Axford’s recent stretch of dominance bumps him up a tier, Monday’s outing notwithstanding. Hanrahan’s strikeouts are down but so are his walks, and he’s been great all season for the surprisingly awesome Pirates.
Tier Three
Huston Street
Andrew Bailey
Jordan Walden
Brandon League
Francisco Rodriguez
Drew Storen
Chris Perez
Jose Valverde
Francisco Cordero
Sergio Santos
Not a ton of movement here, but it’s time to give League his due even though he blew the save last night. He’s poised to threaten 40 saves this year even if his peripherals aren’t great. Santos’ workload is worth keeping an eye on, and his high walk rate is offset by the fact that he’s really, really tough to hit. K-Rod is another candidate to be traded this month and is even more likely than Bell to be a setup man down the stretch. Bailey’s back to being dominant after his injury, and the rest of the guys are all rock solid. Street just needs to cut down on the homers and Perez needs to get further away from the dreaded 1.00 K/BB threshold.
Tier Four
Neftali Feliz
Fernando Salas
Kyle Farnsworth
Mark Melancon
Matt Capps
Antonio Bastardo
David Hernandez
Frank Francisco
Kevin Gregg
Javy Guerra
It’s pretty crazy to think that Feliz has struck out just four of the 60 right-handed batters he’s faced this year. Add in the 13 walks, and … yikes. He’s better than what he’s shown and he’s done better of late, but where’s the guy that won the Rookie of the Year award in 2010? Bastardo and Hernandez are only temporary additions to the list while Ryan Madson (hand) and J.J. Putz (elbow) are on the disabled list. Pretty much anyone below Melancon is sketchy.
No Longer Closing (for various reasons)
Ryan Madson 
J.J. Putz
Brian Fuentes
Jon Rauch
David Aardsma
Jonathan Broxton
Brandon Lyon
Jose Contreras
Eduardo Sanchez
Mitchell Boggs
Aaron Crow
Brad Lidge is on a minor league rehab assignment at the moment, though Madson was so great in the ninth inning that he’ll likely remain at closer this year. When healthy, Madson’s a tier two guy at worst, Putz tier three. Crow didn’t lose the job so much as Soria took it back, and the rest of the guys have been displaced for somewhat obvious reasons by now.
10
Hanrahan seems to be chronically underrated in your rankings…
hes in the second tier, spots 1-6 are all occupied by guys that have been elite for years plus kimbrel, who strikes out roughly 95% of the batters he faces or even glances at incidentally (approximate). you can quibble with axford or nunez but id hardly say he’s underrated (unless you’re referring to the preseason, in which case im inclined to agree somewhat)
Joel- I hope your last name is Hanrahan.
He is. He has a better K rate than Bell, and almost the same as Soria. Plus he’s among the leaders in saves and has yet to blow one to go with his fantastic ERA. He deserves to be in the top tier as much as Bell, Soria, and Wilson.
And those three may be more proven, but it’s widely known relievers are among the most volatile commodities, so they have to be ridden while hot. Plus Hanrahan was great last year as well, just not at closer. And his K rate should improve more toward his career norms.
Also, swiped Hanrahan and Jordan Walden in my 16 team 12 keeper free agent draft this winter….Paydirt.
Since we’re nearing a month since Javy Guerra’s last save can we really still call him the closer?
Anybody who watches Dodgers games got a feel for his potential? His Minor league BB/9 rates are kinda frightening.
Woof, Zips ROS has him at: 6.75 K/9 and 6.30 BB/9. Sell Sell!!!!!
That save Guerra got was actually the last save chance the Dodgers had. He’s not very good, so I’d leave him for NL only leagues if you’re desperate for saves.
Maybe they are having trouble paying for the bandwidth and are trying to get people to stop reading this website? Between this list and the shortstop list yesterday… I certainly won’t be coming here for positional rankings anymore.
I bought Soria ridiculously low when he was temporarily deposed from the closer’s job. (Basically he was a throw-in to a trade that got me Huston Street for Carlos Lee — Street alone for Lee would have been a good trade for me.) I shall now pat myself vigorously on the back.
I would say axford is a tier one type guy. After tonight his FIP is going to be sub 1.80. He’s only blown 2 saves and has a 12.13 k/9 and 3.66 bb/9.
Hanrahan has been great too, getting groundballs and hasn’t blown a save.
Wilson is a bit overrated.
I feel like you’re giving too much weight to the “big name” guys.
I think Papelbon is waaaaaaaaaaayyyyyyyyy too high in these rankings. Sure, his fip is nice, but the results are not pretty. His era is atrocious for a closer, and his line drive rate is through the roof. He’s not a bad option, but he’s no better than any of the third tier options or Farnsworth (who, in 2011, has been pretty damn good).
I would have to agree with you on this. I also think that if Soria has done enough to get back up into Tier 1, Bailey should easily be up there. The only thing Bailey did to get moved down from the top tier is to get hurt in the first place. When healthy, he is one of the best.