2012 Pod Projections: Ike Davis
The Mets are bringing the fences in at Citi Field and that sound you heard when the announcement was made several months ago was the champagne corks going off in the hitters’ households, as well as their keeper league fantasy owners. Ike Davis is certainly to be one of the primary beneficiaries of the change. With Prince Fielder and Albert Pujols‘ departure to the other league this off-season, the National League first base crop is looking mighty thing. That gives Davis the opportunity to actually be the second most valuable at the position, behind Joey Votto. Let’s see what he may do.
Previous projection articles:
Introduction
Dustin Ackley
Asdrubal Cabrera
Paul Goldschmidt
Prince Fielder
At-Bats: 550. Davis was limited to just 129 at-bats last year after a freak ankle injury, but tallied 523 during his 2010 rookie year. He’s a lefty who has posted just a .321 wOBA against them over his short career, so he may sit down against the occasional southpaw. However, he is the de facto every day starter at first, so he should have no problem eclipsing his 2010 mark, barring injury.
Contact Rate: 75%. He posted a 76% rate in a small sample last year and about a 74% rate in 2010. He has posted rates in the low to mid 70% range throughout the lower minors, so is it safe to assume a sudden jump to 80% is not in the cards.
GB%/LD%/FB%: 42%/17%/41%. These are nearly his current Major League averages. Since these stay relatively stable from year to year, it is best to assume something similar unless he makes a dramatic change to his hitting approach.
BABIP: .320. The two expected BABIP formulas I use spit out .326 and .304. That’s one of the larger disagreements I have seen and I almost always end up splitting the difference somewhat. He has always posted high BABIPs in the minors, with no lower than a .318 mark, so the .326 expectation appears more on the money to me. Furthermore, so far that strong BABIP skill has translated to the majors, as he holds a .325 career mark. That said, for young players with a limited track record, it is always smart to project BABIP with a bit of assumed regression, which explains the .320 mark, rather than something higher.
HR/FB Ratio: 16%. Though he only posted a 12% mark in 2010, Davis has massive power. He did increase the rate to 17.1% last year, but it was in such a small sample, it is hard to put too much weight on it. The massive power description comes after seeing his ESPN Hit Tracker data. Last season, his home runs came off the bat at a speed significantly above the league average, and his home runs traveled much further as well. Davis does not hit cheapies. I normally would still have projected a bit of regression off his mark last year, but with the fences moving in, I bumped it up another 1%.
RBI and Runs: 90 and 85. He is currently projected to hit clean up, sandwiched between David Wright and Lucas Duda. His power will drive the solid RBI total, but a mediocre batting average and above average walk rate will cap it somewhat. The good OBP, despite that so-so average, will ensure that he posts a respectable runs scored total even with his slow foot speed.
SBs: 1. He stole 3 in 5 attempts in 2010 and didn’t make an attempt last year. He never stole a base in the minors. Maybe this is his breakout speed year and he steals 4?!
Below is my final projected batting line, along with Bill James, RotoChamp and Fans projections for comparison.
| Team | AB | AVG | HR | RBI | R | SB | CT% | BABIP | HR/FB | GB5/LD%/FB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pod | 550 | 0.273 | 27 | 90 | 85 | 1 | 75% | 0.320 | 16% | 42%/17%/41% |
| Bill James | 520 | 0.288 | 25 | 87 | 80 | 1 | 76% | 0.337 | ? | ??? |
| RotoChamp | 495 | 0.263 | 22 | 79 | 81 | 1 | 76% | 0.306 | ? | ??? |
| Fans (30) | 521 | 0.278 | 24 | 97 | 82 | 1 | 77% | 0.318 | ? | ??? |
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Like it, good option at 1B with his ADP currently at 180 per MDC. I’ll take 16% HR/FB, and I think that is being a little conservative considering the hit tracker info you provided along with fences moving in.
Have the new dimensions of Citi Field been released? Any analysis been done on how the current Mets batters will benefit from the changes?
Yes, they have been released. They are shorter throughout most of the outfield.
I am confused. On Ike Davis fan graphs page it says he posted a 75.7 contact rate in 2010 and a 78.4 contact rate in 2011. But you stated those rates are 74 and 76 percent? Can you explain the difference.
We are using different formulas, which was first explained in the introduction article. Fangraphs uses plate appearances as the denominator, the rate I use includes at-bats. So they aren’t comparable. I use the formula (AB – K) / AB, whereas Fangraphs uses PA instead of AB.
I’m not too familiar with Bill James’s methodology, though I probably should be. Is there a reason why he projects Davis’s BA and BABIP to be so high? A lot of weight on last year, perhaps?
Bill James projections are notoriously “optimistic” for offensive performance by young players. I believe the issue is not enough regression applied to the limited data for the guys with limited track records….
question about BABIP formulas. i’ve always eyeballed it as LD%+0.11…
now, i’m sure that correlation is outdated. what are the new (new to me, at least) expected BABIP formulas based on and where can i find them?
I don’t have your answer, but I would just say there’s definitely more than LD% that affects BABIP. An increase in GB% would see an increase in BABIP, since ground balls find holes (likewise a drop in FB% would raise BABIP). Faster runners get better BABIP because they get more infield hits. There’s probably a lot more to it that I’m missing, too, like park factors and opposing pitchers/defenses, and of course, luck.
Yes, this is a lot of it. I use the formula published a couple of years ago from The Hardball Times that uses a whole bunch of inputs, and the formula box in Excel looks nuts. I also use a formula from Baseball HQ.
But the gist is that power and speed, batted ball distribution and park factors all play a role.
cool. thanks!
What position will Duda play if/when Ike is healthy? LF?
RF with Bay in left.
with the fences coming in 10 to 11 feet and the wall being reduced to 8 feet, Davis and guys like Duda and Wright should have excellent years