2B Non-Keepers: Walker, Ackley, and Kipnis
Tier 1
Dustin Pedroia
Ian Kinsler
Robinson Cano
Tier 2
Michael Young
Brandon Phillips
Rickie Weeks
Chase Utley
Tier 3 (Part 1)
Michael Cuddyer
Ben Zobrist
Dan Uggla
Tier 3 (Part 2)
Howie Kendrick
Kelly Johnson
Non Keepers
Danny Espinosa (link)
I have already gone over the top 12 2B keepers for 2012. Here is a look at why several players were not included.
Neil Walker – If Neil is your keeper at 2B, there are 12 better choices to try to acquire. He is not going to put up a good AVG, HR or SB total. He is going to put up an average numbers of each of these categories.
For 2012, I see 10 HR, 10 SB and an 0.280 AVG. He is not going kill your team, but he is not going to win it for you either.
He would be a great candidate to draft in conjunction with Brian Roberts. Roberts has more up and down side. Having Walker as a replacement if Roberts still has injury issues would be a nice strategy for maximizing up side and limiting downside.
Jason Kipnis – If there was any 2B I could be talked into keeping that was not on my list, it would be Kipnis. He has hit for decent power in all levels of the minors with some speed. I just don’t see any improvement in his hitting and possibly some regression in 2012.
His HR/FB% was over 20% in 2011. Only a handful of players are able to maintain that percentage. Also, he hit 6 of his HRs in his first 18 games while hitting only 1 in the next 18. It may seem like pitchers adjusted to him, but we really don’t know what to think. It was just 36 games of data. I would go off of a ZIPs or Oliver projection for determining his 2012 season value since they take into account minor league values.
With all the talk of limiting expectations, I would look at keeping him if his cost is small. If he is just a few dollars or a late round pick, keep him. He could be a useful player for a few years since he is probably at his peak.
Dustin Ackley – I am not a fan of Dustin Ackley. He gets the prestige of being the #2 overall pick in the 2009 draft. He hasn’t yet produced any great fantasy numbers and might not ever.
Here are the reasons I feel he doesn’t warrants the hype he gets:
1. Like Kipnis, he is college draftee and already into his prime hitting years. There is not much room for improvement
2. He plays for Seattle and their anemic offense in run suppressing Safeco Field. He may be lucky to get 60 RBIs or Runs even if he is hitting at the top of their lineup.
3. He looks to put up 10 HR, 10 SB, 0.260 AVG which is almost the same as Neil Walker. If you aren’t keeping Walker, why keep Ackley. Like with Kipnis, he does have some value if picked up cheaply.
4. Much of his real value is tied up in walks and defense, which most leagues don’t use. If your league uses OBP, his value does jump.
Don’t fall into the hype behind Ackley. He will be a nice player, but not a top flight 2B.
10
not even for $1? i can’t see passing up on him (i have him in a 3 year keeper league) for that amount, if only because i just don’t trust keeping most pitchers.
Jemile Weeks? .275, 6 HR, 80 R, 30 SB seems entirely realistic. Not gangbusters, but that’s still a useful piece.
More like 1, maybe 2 homers.
Also, probably closer to 50 steals.
So all college draftees suck, pretty much? What?
Why claim that Ackley ” looks to put up 10 HR, 10 SB, 0.260 AVG” when in his first half season he hit for higher average and extrapolated over a full year would have just over 10HR and 10SB.
Extrapolated runs and RBI numbers are both in the 70+ range, making the statement that “He may be lucky to get 60 RBIs or Runs” odd.
It’s ok to not have the rosiest view of any certain player, but to fudge the numbers in an attempt to make a case doesn’t speak well to the author’s credibility.
Just curious about your Walker ranking, does he have the ablility to outdo that? I have him for a dollar in a large keeper league and have had him since his callup in 2010, so I’m kind of attached. With that said, I can trade him in a deal for Bumgarner, also a dollar. Is that a deal I should do or should I hope Walker exceeds expectations?
bum for $1 is a lot more enticing than walker!
the nice thing about neil walker is that he is a “solid” all around performer, he isn’t going to kill you in any category and will put up pretty decent R/RBI totals hitting in the middle of the lineup every day…. but the point is that the upside is pretty limited.
so it really depends on how deep your league is and other constraints (e.g. budget, number of keepers, etc). If you want a “safe” player that you can plug into a 2B or MI spot and know you are going to get well rounded (if unspectacular) production all around, and then concentrate your resources elsewhere, walker would be a nice choice.
To your points on Ackley:
- Age: He’s 23. Not in his prime. He should be expected to add some power, if not next season by 2013.
- M’s run-suppressing environment: Can’t argue there. The offense can only get better, though, and his Runs should improve, if not his RBI as a guy who may end up batting second.
- Stats: With his contact skills he should be expected to maintain a high line drive rate and high BABIP. .260 is well below where anyone that I’ve read has projected him. .280 is more common. If your league counts triples you will like him. He hit 7 last year, tying him for second among 2B’s. Over a full season he could up to 15.
- Yes on OBP / Walks. Over a full season he should be among the leaders at his position in these categories. His eye is crazy good. He went through a swing-happy phase at the end of last season that depressed his OBP some, but the way he calmly watches pitches an inch off the plate is incredible.
To me he’s a second-tier player at his position. He’s unlikely to do well in the sexy stats like HR and RBI, but how many second basemen do?
But hey, let me draft him in the tenth round if you don’t like him!
Ackley probably got short shrift in this article but considering him second tier at 2B is ridiculous! He is nowhere close to
The problem is that this is FANTASY and his upside in HR/SB is limited, and homers and steals are the coin of the realm. And it’s not like he brings elite skills in AVG or counting stats to make up for those mediocre HR/SB skills.
Yes, his value improves in an OBP league, but his realistic upside in HR/SB is what, 15 HR and 12 SB? Let’s give him a generous projection of .280, 15 HR, 12 SB, 70 R, 65 RBI… that puts him squarely in line with the low tier 3 / tier 4 guys like Howie Kendrick and Neil Walker.
True, with standard stats he suffers. Both my leagues include OBP and / or walks. (Yes, one of them uses both for some reason). One of the leagues includes doubles and triples where Ackley has top-ten potential among 2B. In that league he’s tier two if he reaches his potential, IMO.
I don’t think he will be 2nd tier next year, but I believe he will be in 2013 and beyond. Players don’t usually get worse than their first trip through the MLB.
I keep getting confused by the methodology of this series. I feel like some authors are privately weighting expected keeper cost and some are not. Which brings us to an important point – expected keeper cost. What should have been done was a rough calculation of what the player should have cost and at how many dollars (in a standard $260 budget format) you draw the line in the sand.
ex.
Ackley expected cost $3. Don’t keep over $5.
Kendrick expected cost $12. Don’t keep over $10.
the reason you are getting confused by the methodology is that there IS NO METHODOLOGY. Just like with the in-season rankings, each author is doing their own thing, which leads to lots of confusion and unnecessary arguments.
Honestly, that inconsistency has left these articles among the worst things I’ve ever run into at Fangraphs. So much would have been clarified if they’d replaced the word “Keeper” with “Offseason,” but they couldn’t be bothered. Still a fan, still will buy their thingie in the spring, just really disappointed by this expansive series.
PS: Also, what is with the continued resistance to ranking people at all the positions for which their eligible?
I will say that I am impressed with the year on year improvement here at Rotographs. But this series can be improved a couple hundred percent next year. Some things:
A methodology. Clearly stated.
Expected keeper cost
Maximum keeper cost relative to some default league (we can all mentally adjust from there)
All eligible players ranked
If there’s a methodology, then you can just make a spreadsheet to re-create it.
Also, if there’s a methodology, the tireless debate just goes meta. Instead of arguing about the rankings, people get pissy and say “I realize that according to your methodology, Neil Walker is a non-keeper. That illustrates a flaw in the method…”
I haven’t lost a fantasy season in years and I have played fantasy longer than some of you have been alive (since 1991). I would keep Espinosa over most of the top 12 he claimed he would keep. A lock for 20 homers from a second basemen has huge value because power at second is rarer than most other positions. Home runs are always over drafted (over priced), so it is harder to lead your league in homers and win than any other stat in a draft league. Yet, punting power can kill your RBIs without helping runs much, so you need some badly. Kept players can be a cheaper way than a draft to get power. Thus, keeping power at non power positions like second is wise if the price is at all reasonable. I doubt anyone paid much for Espinosa last season, so he can be kept cheap.
agreed, and I have been playing just as long GO NATS. I like Espinosa over Kendrick and KJ. Uggla should be ranked higher than Utley imo. Utley is still an injury risk as RAJ has already said his knee injuries are still an issue.
Espinosa is going to kill your AVG and his poor second half means that 20 HR is not a lock. I like him, but not as a guy you would target UNLESS you loaded up your team with a lot of high AVG guys early.
I’m hanging on to Kipnis in my 20 team 18 keeper league. I’ve already got Zobrist, but he’s getting old and will be able to help me out in RF should Choo or CarGo get hurt again, so it seems silly to rely on him at 2B exclusively.
Kipnis has some real power potential, sub 20% K rate in the minors, solid BB rates and is still very young. Only thing that worries me about him is that he’s never once played more than 100 games in a season until last year (128 between AAA and MLB), but in his 550 combined AB’s he hit 19 HR and stole 17 bases. Sure he may struggle a little next year, but why risk some one picking him up and getting left behind with an aging 2B? (this is the sole reason why I’m hanging on to Chisenhall as well, A-Rod just isn’t what he used to be and 3B is shallow)
.280/.350/.480 is perfectly reasonable for Kipnis to achieve and very good at 2B. Add in 20-20 potential that he may be able to reach and you’ve got yourself a pocket stud if you can hang on to him. Pitchers may have adjusted to him, or he may be prone to streakiness ala Tulowitzki and CarGo. I’ll give him two more years if he flounders before cutting bait.
The little anit-Ackley section is strange. I felt the same angst with Pedroia after his slow start in 2006 led me to trading him away for nothing.
At 24 Kipnis is ”probably at his peak” ?
Don’t understand all the upset about Ackley, this is FANTASY baseball.
He’s not going long ball a lot, he’s not going to steal a ton of bases, his runs and rbi figure to be depressed, his average is good but nothing to write home about. Frankly he does not do particularly well in any FANTASY stat so he should be a non keeper.
Terrible.
Walker, in his first full season age 25 hit 12hr last year, after hitting I believe 16 last year across two levels. He improved his BB% and K%, has decent speed that should net him better BABIP levels, I could easily see .290/15/90/10.
Ackley is younger as others have pointed out, he put up very respectable BB and K% for a rookie, he’s shown that after adjustments those numbers should improve and in fact I believe he’s more than capable of a 1/1 BB/K ratio and a .300-.330 avg. in his prime. HR should be 15 to begin with, but nobody though Cano would hit so many HR’s either. Park and team temporarily depress value slightly, but those things change quickly. Next year I could see Ackely at .300/12/75/5 with a good amount of R (90?) if he bats 2nd.
Awful analysis.
NEWS FLASH: 12 homers and 5 steals is a terrible fantasy player.
NEWS FLASH to batpig: 12 and 5 coming from a 2B with a .300 BA and average >80 R/RBI (which Bill is suggesting) is NOT a terrible fanatsy player!
How many 2B averaged 80 R/RBI last year? maybe 6? maybe.
Credibility of this article pretty much fell off a cliff when pt #4 for Ackley said a lot of his real value is tied up in defense (and walks). Every scouting report and analysis I’ve seen on the guy for the last 2 yrs says that adapting to 2B has been and will continue to be tough for him, defense could be a liability, and it’s no lock he’ll stick long term. Maybe it was a typo. Hope so
I often pick 2B for a cheap Walker/and somebody else-like platoon, i.e. two guys at 2B that have big lefty/right splits. It takes daily shuffling to get the right matchups, but it can get good production from two cheap picks. Walker hits lefites ok, but gets virtually all his homers vs. righties.
My interpretation on the Ackley analysis is that the author is suggesting that Ackley will be a better/more valuable player in real life than he will be in fantasy baseball. I agree 100% with that opinion. Granted, my leagues do not use OBP as a category, but the fact remains Ackley does not figure to contribute much in HRs or SB, and will likely be just average in runs/rbis.
Ackley strikes me as a guy whose perveived value is higher than his real value. Were he on my team, I’d sell high.
Ackley strikes me as a guy whose perveived value is higher than his real value. Were he on my team, I’d sell high.
Heard that.