30/30 For ‘Cutch? Could Be
As a speedy center fielder who stands just 5-foot-10 and weighs 190 pounds (dreads included), Andrew McCutchen hardly fits the power hitting archetype. But don’t let his small stature fool you — ‘Cutch can go deep. Possessing the quickest wrists this side of Gary Sheffield, McCutchen has increased his home run total from 12 as a rookie in 2009 to 16 in 2010 and 23 this past year. ‘Cutch has discovered his home run stroke by becoming a power threat to all fields. With a little more thump in 2012 and more walks from opponents pitching him carefully, he could become just the second Pirate ever to go 30/30 (some dude named Barry did it in 1990 and ’92).
McCutchen pulled the ball with plenty of authority during his first two MLB seasons, besting the league average slugging percentage by over 50 points. But when it came to going up the middle and to the opposite field, his power production lagged:
| Player | Pull SLG% | Center SLG% | Opposite SLG% |
|---|---|---|---|
| McCutchen | .679 | .500 | .401 |
| League Avg. | .626 | .462 | .415 |
McCutchen hit 21 of his homers in 2009-10 to the pull side, seven to center field and didn’t hit a single opposite-field shot.
In 2011, however, he decreased his ground ball rate to both center field (from 42% in 2009-10 to 31%) and the opposite field (from 19% to 13%). While he didn’t hit as well to the pull side, McCutchen’s slugging percentage to center and right field spiked with more balls in the air:
| Player | Pull SLG% | Center SLG% | Opposite SLG% |
|---|---|---|---|
| McCutchen | .598 | .613 | .515 |
| League Avg. | .611 | .451 | .405 |
He hit nine homers to the pull side, eight to center field and six to the opposite field.
McCutchen becoming more of an over-the-fence threat has other benefits for fantasy owners, too. As McCutchen started going yard more often, pitchers approached him more cautiously. Check out his percentage of pitches seen in the strike zone during the 2011 season, by month:
| Month | Zone% |
|---|---|
| April | 52.2 |
| May | 48.2 |
| June | 46.3 |
| July | 43.3 |
| August | 47.3 |
| September | 46 |
| League Avg. | 45.3 |
More out-of-zone pitches for a patient hitter like McCutchen means more walks: his rate of free passes taken increased from about 11% in 2009-10 to 13% in 2011. Theoretically, more walks means more chances for ‘Cutch to use his wheels. That’s one front where we’ll be looking for improvement in 2012. McCutchen stole a rather disappointing 23 bases in 33 tries last year, a 70% success rate. If he can nab bags at a clip closer to his 2009-10 pace (79%) while on base more via ball four, 30 steals should be within his reach even if he is batting in the 3 or 4-spot in the lineup rather than leading off.
So, can ‘Cutch go 30/30? The projection systems say 30 steals could happen, but they’re more skeptical in the power department:
| Projection | HR | SB |
|---|---|---|
| Bill James | 19 | 27 |
| Fans | 23 | 31 |
| RotoChamp | 21 | 26 |
While 30 homers might be a bit of a long shot, McCutchen’s all-fields slugging will serve him well in PNC Park. PNC typically does a number on right-handed power hitters, decreasing home runs by 27 percent compared to a neutral stadium. It’s no secret why that’s the case: PNC goes 383 feet to left-center and features a “North Side Notch” that’s 410 feet from home plate. Those fence dimensions aren’t so daunting to right-center (375 feet) and right field (320 feet), however.
Going into his age-25 season, McCutchen has everything you look for in a hitter: patience, speed and now, more pop. While his home ballpark isn’t hospitable to righty slugging, his improved power to center and right field bodes well in his quest for a 30/30 season. I’m going to go out on a limb and say ‘Cutch joins Bonds in the Bucco 30/30 club in 2012.
What do you think? Enter a projection for McCutchen here.
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i hope mccutch proves bill james inaccurate again!
I really enjoy watching him. From the lead off spot he may see more good pitches to hit than from batting third. A lot depends on the Pirates projected first two hitters. If they fail to get on then Andrew won’t see many pitches to hit. Plus who bats behind him. I can see the 30 sb and 24 hr + 2 inside the park to give him 26 dingers.
I don’t have any numbers in front of me, but I owned Cutch last year, and it really seemed like he had more production batting 3rd as opposed to leadoff. He also still got to 20-20 with batting .216 or something in the second half of the season, so he can only go up.
I would temper the power expectations, I think he’d be lucky to top 25. His profile looks eerily similar to the start of Markakis’ career, and while im not saying that he’s going to disappoint (to a degree) like markakis did, I don’t think we should be expecting a growth in power the same way we project JUp to continue to progress. McCutch is a bit more wiry strong than muscle bound like Upton. I think that 20-25 hrs and 30-35 steals is more likely going forward, with the steals pushing 35+ as he improves his eye and gets on base more
30 HR is getting greedy. He’s young so maybe he’s got some more growth on top of last season’s 12.2% HR/FB, but we also have to consider that his ’11 was an anomaly compared to his ’09 and ’10 seasons, which were at 8.8% HR/FB and 8.7% HR/FB, respectively. 30-HR hitters are usually slugging well into the .500s in their pro careers, and McCutchen never even hit that mark in the minors (.493 was as high as he got, his second time through AAA). There’s no secret to hitting more homers, a hitter either has to bump up the physical power (HR/FB) or adjust his swing/mechanics to hit more balls in the air (FB%). He’ll have to do both of those things to pop 30, and there’s about a 5-10% chance of that happening.
yes, there is always this rosy-eyed assumption with young players who improve a couple of years in a row that the “trend” will keep going… when, in fact, it’s much more likely that he will actually regress. The same would be true for any career year, it’s safer to assume it will come back slightly rather than just keep getting better, even with young players.
as you note that 12% HR/FB rate was a big jump for him, the only time he’s been above 9% in his career; considering his batted ball profile he would have to start hitting more FB and also up that to around 15% HR/FB to even approach 30 HR.
consider that the last two years, full seasons, he averaged 185 fly balls. That would require a 16%+ HR/FB rate to top 30 HR. Guys with around 16% HR/FB last year were Carlos Santana, Jay Bruce, Adrian Gonzalez, Paul Konerko, Adrian Beltre, Josh Hamilton….
Just looking at the guys who have hit 30 HRs the past five or so seasons, McCutch would definitely be one of the smallest guys to achieve this. But I guess if ’07 Jimmy Rollins can do it…
Jimmy Rollins is a good comp, although Cutch has better power IMO.
But I think it’s likely that, like Rollins, McCutchen will probably have one “career year” some time in the next 3-4 years (his prime) where his FB rate pushes to around 45% and he cracks 30.
but that’s not a realistic *expectation* for his true talent level. I think he’s a 18-25 HR, 25-30 SB guy, which is pretty darn nice.