Comments on: A Dice-K Proposition

By: Michael Coker

Michael Coker — Thu, 11 Aug 2011 14:23:57 +0000

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By: Tom M

Tom M — Tue, 20 Jul 2010 21:05:31 +0000

The ‘Dice-K is overrated’ theme is provocative, but ultimately wrong. Even just on the Red Sox team, the most overrated and most overpaid player is actually JD Drew, who makes $14M as the highest paid hitter, who is always hurt over minor injuries and refuses to bat higher than 7th in the batting order. In 2008, Josh Beckett enjoyed almost the same run support as Dice-K did, and other pitchers who walked a ton in 2008 include Tim Lincecum and Felix Hernandez (both over 80 walks).

Dice-K gets the job done, period. All he does is win. He won 33 games his first two years in the league, his MLB playoff record is 7-3, and he was the MVP of the past 2 World Baseball Classics. I think his high walk rate is a cultural thing – it’s clear he never gives up on a hitter and would rather walk him than just throw it down the middle. His mindset isn’t like a lot of pitchers today, his mindset towards walks is old school like Nolan Ryan’s. Both pitchers had low ERA’s and extremely high walk rates.

Calling 18-3 and a 2.90 ERA as “luck” is ignorance simply because he pitches differently from what you are accustomed to. Why don’t you point out that Dice-K had the league’s lowest batting average against among all pitchers in 2008? How about the fact that with any runners on base, Dice-K had the league’s best BAA and ERA? The walk issue is a cultural and philosophical thing, because clearly whenever runners are in scoring position he was the best pitcher in the 2008. I’m gonna guess that in Japan they throw junk to get hitters to chase, and bring the goods when runners actually reach base.

If you throw out Dice-K’s horrible 1st start, he has a 3.60 ERA and a 7-2 record in 2010. This hardly ever gets brought up in Boston media…

By: Mike Ketchen

Mike Ketchen — Mon, 03 Nov 2008 19:47:27 +0000

I agree with what you are saying on the surface. However he has outperformed that rate in 8 out of 10 years! This is not Ryan Dempster lol. Honestly though I do not know how to explain my thoughts beyond what I have read about japanese pitchers and seen with my own eyes, I think he simply refuses to give in, which in turn leads to walks but also leads to not getting hit hard (career IP/H 372.1/319) He chooses his spots very well. Again maybe I am crazy, however how often do we see stubborn pitchers “challenge” a hitter in a hitters count and get hurt, rather then nibble with a pitch and either make a hitter swing at their pitch or simply walk a guy and start fresh with a new hitter.

By: David Golebiewski

David Golebiewski — Mon, 03 Nov 2008 19:31:16 +0000

Maybe it’s possible that Matsuzaka is unique, but I think we can get into trouble looking for justifications as to why a certain player gooes against a principle that seems to hold pretty strongly overall: strand rates tend to hover around 70-72%, and he fell close to that range in 2007.

And, even if we concede that Matsuzaka has an ability to pitch out of situations where runners are on base, there are still troubling trends in terms of his BB rate, HR rate and BABIP. Pitchers just don’t post sub-3 ERAs with a walk rate over 5.

By: David Appelman

David Appelman — Mon, 03 Nov 2008 19:20:35 +0000

I think we’ll all agree that he is a very good strikeout pitcher, but I think his walk problem is a serious concern, especially in the ERA department. I’ll admit I personally think of him as a bit of a wildcard. A pitcher who if he were to get his walks (and furthermore pitch counts) under control he could be a top 10 pitcher, but I think it’d be irresponsible to go after him like one and I’m pretty sure there’s going to be someone in most leagues who will end up doing just that. You shouldn’t be that guy.

By: Mike Ketchen

Mike Ketchen — Mon, 03 Nov 2008 18:47:32 +0000

He has posted a strand rate above 73% in 8 out of his 10 seasons so at what point do we not give some credit for him having an ability to bare down from the stretch? Also he gives up a ton of walks in exchange for hits. I am a Sox fan and I watch nearly every start and his approach is somewhat by design. He simply refuses to give in and it works. He will never be dominant by formulas such as FIP. However in terms of fantasy, he is a great strikeout pitcher who is going to get wins (due to playing for Sox) and be league average or better in terms of ERA and WHIP. That is a top 20 or Tier 2 starter in my book