A Foxy Move
The Chicago Cubs finally found a way to make room for the hottest hitter in the minor leagues. Jake Fox has reportedly been recalled from triple-A Iowa, with infielder Aaron Miles landing on the disabled list.
Fox, a first baseman, was leading the triple-A Pacific Coast League in all three Triple-Crown categories: average (.423), home runs (17), and RBI (50) in 149 at-bats. Now, before you get too excited, there is some fine print that comes with Fox. 1) He’s not your typical prospect at the age of 26 (going on 27 in July). 2) The Pacific Coast League is an extremely good hitter’s league. 3) He cannot play defensive to save his life and is a below-average first baseman and has no hope of playing another position.
As we all know, Derrek Lee is the incumbent first baseman in Chicago and although he’s struggling (.248/.314/.416), he’s due $13 million annually through 2010. Sweet Lou is desperate for offense, but he’s not about to abandon one of his veteran regulars. As such, Fox’s playing opportunities should be limited to pinch-hitting duties and the occasional start at first base. His situation is actually fairly similar to that of Micah Hoffpauir, another over-aged rookie who posted solid offensive numbers in the minors. Hoffpauir, though, has more defensive flexibility.
Last season, while playing at double-A, Fox hit 25 homers in 388 at-bats and posted a triple-slash line of .307/.397/.580 with an ISO of .273. He actually appeared in seven games with Chicago in 2007 but hit just .143/.200/.286 (although both his hits were doubles). Fox was originally selected by the Cubs in the third round of the 2003 draft out of the University of Michigan. Drafted as a catcher, Fox played himself off the position by 2007. For interest’s sake, here is a sneak peek at his pre-draft scouting report from Baseball America:
Fox enjoyed a breakout season with the bat, hitting .365 and leading the Big 10 Conference in homers (14) and RBIs (63). He drives balls 450 feet in batting practice, and might have had more homers if he didn’t play his home games in cavernous Ray Fisher Stadium. He is exceptionally strong at 6 feet and 210 pounds, and has worked hard to improve his catching. He still has just average skills behind the plate, with below-average hands and arm strength.
The best scenario for Fox (barring an injury to Lee) would be for him to perform well in limited duty over the next one to two months until he can be packaged in a trade to an American League club for a veteran who can help the Cubbies in the race to a World Series title.
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Not entirely true regarding his defensive positioning…while he is below average defensively, he won’t be limited to first base. He will see some time at the corner outfield spots and maybe even third…again, he’s below average defensively, but not completely hopeless away from first.
Defense…
“A notch above horrific” I believe were the words from Baseball America’s Jim Callis.
I’m not trying to take anything away from Jake, but as Marc said above the PCL is a great hitters league and I play college ball in Iowa and will say that the wind gusts in that state are unbelievable. There are many days when the wind is consistently gusting up to 35 MPH straight out to center or left. I can’t say for certain that the wind aided his numbers but looking at how silly they are I would be very surprised if it didn’t.
He’s actually better on the road:
Home: 317/368/603 – OPS: 971 63 at bats
Road: 506/592/1.120 OPS: 1.712 83 at bats
I think the bigger question that should be asked is how much you buy the discipline improvement in the last 2 years. His K rate has dropped and his BB rate has risen … but 2008 was the 3rd season where he saw time in AA, and certainly, he’s a bit older for AAA. I buy there’s improvement, but it’s the degree of improvement that’s the question for me. Is this a case of an older guy succeeding, or a late bloomer? Another question is if Jake can maintain his performance without regular AB’s.
That said, as a Cubs fan, if the whole lineup is healthy and performing, I wouldn’t mind keeping Micah and Jake both on the lineup as power bats off the bench. I don’t see the need for Freel and Miles, and Freel is more valuable. I don’t buy Blanco staying in the bigs, so unless the Cubs go trade for a shortstop, I can live with Freel as a stopgap option.
As a side note, the domino effect led to a very intriguing move, IMO, and that being Steve Clevenger being bumped to AAA. Clevenger’s a former IF from Chipola who was transitioned to catcher a few years back. While he lacks Castillo’s upside, he’s a more consistent player offensively and defensively right now. If this power surge this year is real (admittedly, small sample size), he really should be on most radars. He could fit into the Cubs plan as a backup catcher to Soto in 2010 or 2011, or be an intriguing trade asset.
Saying Micah Hoffpauir posted solid numbers at AAA could be the understatement of the century.
Plus, you can’t be skeptical of Fox’s numbers in the minors without him having any chance at all to hit in the majors….that’s just not fair. We can argue all day about what improvements he may have made and whether the numbers are slightly inflated, but we can all agree that he has nothing left to prove in the minors, regardless. Sure, he’s playing in a hitter friendly league, but I don’t see anyone else in that hitter friendly league with numbers that could wipe his 17 homeruns’s ass.
The second comment was directed at the commenters, not the article…just to make that clear,.