ADP Value: SP1
Imagine stumbling on this headline without prior knowledge of fantasy baseball. It would take quite a bit of explaining to understand that this piece will be about the starting pitchers from this list that have the best value vis-a-vis their draft position. Good thing most of you are ahead of the curve on that one.
The easiest way to find value in a tier is to just go ahead and pick the guy with the lowest ADP in the tier, and lo and behold, Dan Haren (40.24 ADP) is that guy for me in the first mini-tier. At first, there seems to be no negative in taking Haren in the early fourth round given his stature among the elite SP1s. For three straight years, he’s had an ERA below 3.33, a WHIP below 1.21, a walk rate below 1.8 per nine, and a strikeout rate over 8 per nine. Thank you, thank you, thank you and thank you. I know the cutoffs are a little random, but guess how many other starting pitchers in baseball have managed that sort of sustained excellence over the past three years. Yeah. None.
Let me stop you yeahbutters right now. I know what you’re saying. In 651 Pre-All-Star innings, Haren has a 3.08 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and a 7.45 K/9. In 575 Post-All-Star innings, he has 4.21 ERA, 1.32 WHIP and a 7.76 K/9. Those innings seem significant. I understand the yeahbutting. Here’s my rubber and your glue: Haren’s xFIP by month, career: 3.82, 3.72, 3.73, 3.54, 3.37, 3.64. I don’t see a problem here. Maybe give him a tick forward in roto leagues and a tick backward in H2H leagues where he may or may not disappear for your playoffs. But otherwise, if you want a pitcher in the first four rounds, Haren is your value.
The lowest ADP of the next tier predictably belongs to Chris Carpenter (72.73 ADP) and his elbow and shoulder held together by twine and adhesive. You’re getting a discount because of all that risk. But why should you get a discount for picking Jon Lester (58.95 ADP)? The cancer scare was a long time ago. His career strikeout rate (7.85 K/9) belies his true talent level, as a surge (9.96 K/9 last year) brought him to the top of the leaderboard in that category. Admittedly, there was some question about his walk rate (3.8 BB/9,1.31 WHIP in the minor leagues), but now he’s kept it under three for two straight years (2.82 and 2.83) and seems to have answered the question. He even had a poor BABIP last year (.323), so if he puts that elite strikeout rate together with better luck on the batted ball and the same nice walk rate – watchout hardware.
The last tier features a pitcher that is the subject of more than a few mancrushes. David G declared him an ace last year, Ray Flowers at Fanball.com likes him as an early second pitcher, John Halpin at Fox Sports thinks a gaudy win total is coming, Paul Bourdett claims to have liked him before he blew up, and you can check my Second Opinion graph for proof that I like the beanpole Rockie ace. Here’s a taste: Ubaldo Jimenez (100.58 ADP) has had better than 50% ground balls for two years in a row, and in the last two years he has improved his strikeout and walk rates each time. His fastball, slider and change all gave the Rox better than 9.6 runs in weighted value, and batters have an especially tough time with his changeup (23.2% whiff rate) and slider (19% whiff rate). He’s 26, burns worms, has nasty stuff that gets whiffs and comes cheaply. Does it get any better?
10
3rd paragraph says something about a 7 WHIP.
Thanks kind sir.
10th pick in this years draft, I’m taking Lincecum
That’s a mistake.
Hopefully slots 1-9 will comply with your wishes. :-) (i.e., make sure you have a plan “B”.)
it’s really irritating that yahoo has Ubaldo pre-ranked 68th.
….and his Yahoo ADP is 77. There’s a ranking thing going on there for sure.
Where do you find the chart where the ADP is on Yahoo? I’ve been searching all over
well playing in the rockies can really affect him so i woodnt disagree
Yeah, I don’t get the Haren hate out there by some *cough* Matthew Berry *cough*. It was just the other day that I looked at his splits myself.
Looking at his xFIP, the standard deviation from his mean xFIP was only .33.
Looking at his ERA the standard deviation was 1.58 from the mean.
Looks like Haren really can stay consistent for a full year in categories that are actual skills.
Now lets look at why Haren had a high ERA in August and September.
In August his HR/FB% was 17.4 which is ridiculous.
In September, his BABIP was .352. This is 48 points higher than any other month, and his HR/FB was a still inflated 12.8%.
I like the GB rate, but do you really expect a guy who walks as many as Ubaldo in Coors to improve upon his 2009 campaign? I say 2009 was his upside. 2007 was ubaldo’s downside. Not terrible, but is this what you want from your SP1? Not me.
I’m drinking the Jon Lester juice
http://gameofinches.blogspot.com/2010/02/drinking-juice-jon-lester.html
Correct me if I’m wrong, but walks are going to hurt a guy like Ubaldo a bit less than other pitchers. Because he gets so many GB he’s likely to get more double plays which neutralizes the walks more than it would for a FB pitcher. The high K rate should help a bit here too.
The walks are a definite problem, don’t get me wrong. But thanks to his skillset (high GB, high K) he’s not going to be hurt as much by the walks as other pitchers with high FB% or low K/9′s.
I understand the increased proclivity for double plays, but
1) The rox D is just not that good. It’s below average at BEST
2) More walks means a higher WHIP, even if the ERA isnt terrible
3) More walks means a higher chance of men who are not left on base when the hits come
Given that he reduced his walks significantly from the year before, further progress in this area would help greatly. We’ll see this year, but many peripherals improved last year, and he’s still young – 25, I think. I think further improvement is definitely not out of the question – I think the sky is the limit for Ubaldo.
Why is it annoying that Ubaldo is ranked there? 6th round seems fair for a guy like that, no matter what angle you’re looking at it.
B/c in mocks elsewhere, I’ve been able to get him in the 9th or 10th. I might have been able to go lower, but I never risked it.
I’m confused by this statement: “His career strikeout rate (7.85 K/9) belies a surge (9.96 K/9 last year) that brought him to the top of the leaderboard in that category.”
In the context of the rest of the paragraph it seems you believe one shouldn’t be worried about Lester’s performance, but this sentence states that you should be worried about his strikeout rate. Maybe you can clarify?
I’m saying that his only-okay career strikeout rate (7.85 k/9) doesn’t tell the whole picture. In fact, he’s capable of strikeout many more, like his 9.96 k/9 showed last year. If I had more time and space and was only talking about Lester I might go into it some more, but he’s shown big strikeout ability in the minors and he should be able to keep an 8+ K/9 going in his prime.
I think the sentence makes sense. I’m not saying anything negative in it really, just saying that his career strikeout rate doesn’t show you the whole picture.
Lester has a deceptive 4-pitch mix with consistent release points. He can strike out as many as Haren in my opinion. THat’s somewhere in the mid-8′s range
Eno- Your Kumon-centric imbecility leads you to write “Chris Carpenter (72.73 ADP)” when in fact it would be pedagogically correct to write, “Chris Carpenter (mid-modal range)” or something. Don’t you know that graphical representation and conceptual math is the newest greatest thing in education and “numbers” are obstacles to true understanding? Does Stanford only graduate troglodytes?
Kidding…..
ROFL
I think the “belies” confusion is that you have it backwards – his 2009 K rate belies his career rate (or his career rate is belied by his 2009 rate). As written, you are calling into question the sustainability of his 2009 rate and expecting it to drop.
This is the definition of ‘belies’ i was using: To give a false representation to; misrepresent.
So, his mediocre-ish career strikeout rate (7.8) misrepresents his recent surge in that number (9.9). As in, if you looked merely at his career rate, you wouldn’t be getting the whole picture of his talent level.
I mean, you guys got me looking in the dictionary, so kudos. But I think I still used it correctly, no?
There is another definition:
1. to show to be untrue; contradict
And by that definition, I still believe it’s correct. I’m basically saying that the two numbers contradict a little, but by the first definition of the word, I’m saying that the career number merely misrepresents the full package, not contradicts it.
Maybe we are both right? I now know a little more about this word. I’ve edited my piece to reflect my better understanding of the word. Do we like it better now?
You are a wise and noble fellow.
I’m in a keeper where we can keep up to 4. Some guy(Red Sox fan) had a great staff, but decided to keep Papelbon over Ubaldo, much to the delight of a friend of mine and me, who are big fans of him. However, in order to get a shot at him(since I know my friend would definitely take Ubaldo), I’d have to drop Hamels and would only be keeping Greinke. Is dropping Hamels worth the CHANCE of Ubaldo?
Not for a chance. If it were solid, I would make the switch IMHO.
I don’t think so either. What sorta chance though? Like % wise.
I finished 4/12 last year and we’re doing a snake draft in reverse order. I’m keeping 4 hitters and Greinke no matter what, so the earliest I could go is Round 6 which is the earliest anyone else is as well. It’d be a real crapshoot since Ubaldo is the best available SP by Y! ranks. I have a good feeling someone behind me would scoop him up…including the guy who dropped him since his hitting was terrible and he’s only keeping Ellsbury.
so you could get hamels back too, though. any other possible dropped keepers/pitchers so we can get a sense of your top 8 potential picks?
Available are Ubaldo, Wandy, Javy Vazquez, Baker, Billingsley, Dempster, Jered Weaver, John Danks, James Shields(I have him and decided against keeping him because of how far down he is), Matt Garza(same), and John Lackey. These are based on Yahoo’s O-Rank. Hamels would fall between Baker and Vazquez according to Yahoo. I really appreciate the extent of this help, by the way.
Oh, and I think there’s a chance Jered could get kept. I’m pretty sure the guy who had him didn’t pick yet.
man, so you might pick higher than 8? Let’s see, of the cuff: Ubaldo/Hamels, Bills, Wandy, Baker, Danks, Shields, Lackey (keeper rankings)… plus hitters will be taken too.
So you’re giving up 100% Hamels for possible Ubaldo, worst case really Shields. I sort of like that. I do it.
Well, technically, I could keep both Hamels and Shields so I’d call that a loss for me. But, I’d say about half of those 8 behind me are keeping more than I would be if I let Hamels go, so I’d be going before them. And some of them may be looking at hitters first and I’m going to be focusing on pitching exclusively for a bit since my offense is very strong(keeping Pujols, Utley, Zimmerman, and Zobrist).
By the way, I was leaning towards it anyway, but you directly pushed me into Second Opinion. I shall be getting that now.
You know who is getting no love? Max Scherzer. I wouldnt call him SP1 by any means, but a lower tier SP2? Plausible
My Fearless Forecast at Minimum: 3.78 ERA, 174 Ks, 1.3 WHIP.
More details on how this was calculated here:
http://gameofinches.blogspot.com/2010/03/forecasting-max-scherzer-for-2010.html
Also, I need a “second opinion” of my own here.
I could use some more Steals and AVG and am being offered Wright+Sanchez for Cole Hamels+Beckham.
My pitchers are Felix-Hamels-Lester-Scherzer-Lackey-Rypchernzki (or how ever the fuck his name is spelled) – Webb and Colby Lewis. 1500 IP limit, no GS limits
Worth taking?
Gaby? Anibal? Freddy?
Jonathan Sanchez
Drafting Ubaldo as many times as I could definitely helped tonight.