ADP Values at Catcher
Once again a fantasy freak is allowed out into the light, and, well, I feel the pressure to be… fantastic. But how better to represent what we’ve been doing on RotoGraphs than to continue a series that gets right at the heart of what FanGraphs’ beautiful numbers can do for you in fantasy? That’s right, we’re checking out players from our tiered ranking series that are likely to outperform their Average Draft Position (ADP) as determined by MockDraftCentral.com.
It’s a mouthful, but remember, in the words of the immortal Black Sheep, “You can get with this, or you can get with that, I think you’ll get with this, for this is where it’s at.” It’s all about choosing the right player at the right spot.
For example, Victor Martinez is a fine young man. He’ll probably hit twenty home runs and have a nice batting average. His runs and RBI should be elite for a catcher, given the lineup surrounding him and his home ballpark. His ADP (24.19) reflects all of these things by placing him at the end of the second round. You could get with this.
On the other hand, there’s Brian McCann, who is also a fine young catcher. The fans have him hitting a couple more home runs, though, probably because his ISO has been much steadier and more impressive (.183, .222, .205 since 2007) than Martinez has shown (.205, .086, .177 over the same time period). Of course, picking McCann may come with a little more risk in the batting average department. There is the matter of his .270 batting average in 2007 in some minds. But McCann had a sub-.300 BABIP that year for the only time in his career, despite also owning a .307 xBABIP that year. It looks like he’s at least a reasonably solid bet to give similar value to Martinez… and he’s going as much as two rounds later according to his ADP (42.37). Among the top-tiered catchers, this is where it’s at (for value).
Once the top three catchers go, the ADPs plunge into the 100s, and for good reason. Because of the way the average catcher is used, the top 12 catchers by at-bats averaged 490 at-bats compared to 586 average at-bats for the top 12 first basemen last year. That’s 16.4% fewer at-bats. So before you use any pick on a catcher, remember that he’s going to get 15% fewer chances than the average position player – and also that his poor batting average will be 15% less hurtful than a bad batting average on a player at a different position.
In the next tier, Miguel Montero and his emerging game make for a good value given his draft position (149.78). He’s shown a .173+ ISO three seasons running, and seems to have finally reigned in the strikeouts to a reasonable level (18.6% last year). He’s also twelve years younger than the more expensive Jorge Posada (116.53 ADP). Catcher-years can catch up to a catcher in his late thirties. (Catch that?)
I could certainly get with Kurt Suzuki (131.37 ADP), but Russell Martin is cheaper (137.89) and more likely to offer a handful of extra steals. In the end, I’m probably just going to bypass the lot of them and go for end-game sleepers like the always-solid never-exciting AJ Pierzynski (246.68). As commenter Bas noted on our Check the Position: Catcher piece, AJ and Suzuki have similar high-contact, low-walk-rate, medium-power approaches – why you would pay almost ten rounds more for Suzuki? Certainly not for those five steals.
Finally, a word for a deep league ADP value guy. John Baker was first made famous for his inclusion in Billy Beane’s wishlists in Money Ball, and won’t hurt you with his low ADP (318.62). Jesus Flores, on the other hand, has an ISO that’s going in the right direction and is even cheaper (332.92). Provided Flores is healthy, both are fine late-round additions in deep leagues.
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No love for Iannetta? I realize he had a down year, but he’s more productive than most casual fans would believe (far more than AJ), so he could be a real value pick.
if he doesnt lose at bats to Olivio (who hit 20 HR last year)
Ruiz (271)
Salty 317 (injury issues but hes expected to be ready)
what are the odds of a JR Towles emergence?
I still like Towles. At his ADP (520.10), if he plays he’s a value. He’s got that extreme BABIP problem, and he hasn’t gotten enough at-bats at the major league level to write him off in my book.
Iannetta has been written about extensively on the site, but his ADP (178.67) certainly makes him a value. I’d rather have him than B Molina (158.58) or Kurt Suzuki (131.37), but Soto (149.73) would give me pause.
How about Kelly Shopach? His projections look decent for a guy that can be had with the last pick of any draft.
Also curious if you think Wieters is worth a 11th-12th round pick this year.
Wieters is moving up to a 10th round pick (113.28), which is where Posada is going (116.28). If I’m going to pick a catcher in the middle rounds, I’d rather have Montero (149.78), but that might only happen in keeper leagues or two-catcher leagues. I mean, do you want Wieters in a re-draft or Ubaldo Jimenez, John Lackey, Jay Bruce? They are all going around the same time.
I’m much more likely to end up with Shoppach, whose .240/.250 BA will only come in 400 ABs at most, and he’ll hopefully give me similar power to Montero and Wieters. No need to pay for batting average that is 15% less valuable than your non-catcher’s batting average. And you’re right about him coming cheap (325.44). In fact, looking at him now, I think I’d prefer him to Flores and Baker as well. D’oh.
Ubaldo Jimenez is going after the 10th round? Wow!
ubaldo is a stud
I know- I am almost speechless at his reported ADP.
Wieters is a good example of a common draft dilemma. How much do you trust a potential breakout?
James: .311/20/92/75
Fans: .298/20/88/83
CHONE: .289/15/64/55
He really seemed to get his feet under him in the latter part of the season. If he really is Mark Teixeira behind the plate…this’ll be the last year to get him at much of a discount. If he’s around .300/20/90/90, i have to think that’s top 5 round value from your C.
I think he’s the type of guy you just have to look at for yourself, come up with your own forecast, and trust it on draft day.
90 runs? I think I am reasonably bullish on BAL’s offense, but that would be quite an outcome.
bill james must be extrapolating his minor league numbers or something. dude is crazy
not that insane imo.
his first 194 ab: 5 hr, 25 runs, 28 rbi
then in 198 more: 12 hr, 36 runs, 41 rbi
over the 550 at bats projected by james, that second half increase would project to 33 hr, 115 rbi, 101 runs.
yes, hes still young. sure, 200 ab is small sample. but this IS the sort of production he’s supposed to be capable of isn’t it? question is if it is for real so soon going into 2010.
i think you have to land at least a couple big breakouts to draft a contender. usually you want those later on…j upton, choo, a. hill last year come to mind. 10th round, as was pointed out, still has some safer ‘upside’ guys.
i have to think he’s got a really really good shot at being mccann’s level this year, and much better than the tier after him (posada, montero, ianetta, soto).
amicrazy…you must be crazy!!!
where are you getting those numbers for wieters from????
in 09, he had 354 AB at the MLB level with 9 HR 35 R 43 RBI
he had 246 post AS break ABs with 6 HR 25 R 33 RBI
you lose all credibility when you start posting fictitious numbers
Isn’t Navarro gonna take at least 40% of the AB’s in Tampa?
When is Carlos Santana expected up and what do you project for him when he arrives?
This is a major detriment to his sleeper status. If he doesn’t start out hitting for power, he could easily become the backup.
Navarro is currently listed as the starter on the Rays’ official site. I’m not sure how much that means at this point, but Shoppach is the listed backup, so they’ve definitely updated it since Shoppach came over…
I have to agree with “AmIcrazy” on his Wieters post, as far as drafting potential value; Wieters offers game-changing value at the catcher spot, which you won’t get with someone taken 100+ picks later. Part of the struggle when ranking positional value is you are far more likely (in my opinion) to get a value pick from a starting pitcher, outfielder, even a corner infielder, in the later rounds than you are to luck into a great middle-infielder or catcher.
That is a good case for taking catchers a little earlier. I certainly like to be looking mostly for outfielders, starters and relievers at the end of my draft. But I do think there are surprise catchers every year, and the whole 85% thing means I’m just not going to overpay for that position. Imagine if first baseman just sat once a week – all of them.
couple follow ups…
isn’t it as much about the 85% you’re drafting vs the 85% other teams will be drafting? another way…you catcher will hardly ever be the best player on your team, but a material gap between your C and your competition’s C…doesn’t that make up for the playing time issue (at some point)?
do you think there are compensating factors for AL catchers? posada, for example, looks poised to get some DH duty. should they get another bat, then posada will be on the “under” for even 85%.
seems with tier 2 or 3 catchers, there’s always one category that hurts. even mccann, with 94 rbi last year, only scored 63. and he hit .281. i totally agree with not drafting him in the top 8 rounds, not enough separation from the later targets you mention.
I guess they’re all 85% (other than the odd AL catcher with his DH at-bats), but my argument is not about your catcher versus other catchers persay, but the fact that you could use that early pick on another player who will play every day. And poor batting averages won’t hurt as much in 400 ABs, those are my two points.
So I’d much rather fill all my 100% positions with earlier picks and then pick a higher-powered, lower-batting-average catcher later on, when there are a good amount still available. I don’t make hard and fast rules like some people I’ve known, but I don’t know if I’ve ever picked a catcher before the tenth round…
The best way to draft catchers is to draft young, high upside players late or catch value in bounce-back years. Iannetta’s .253 BABIP (walk rate held, k’s are down, power near same) is a good value. It was the same for Soto (walk rate held, k’s are down, but did see a dip in power) with a .251 BABIP. For young, high upside, I like Buster Posey. Wieters could be tremendous value if Bill James is even remotely correct and if he slips in some drafts as I am seeing.
I think that Wieters is going way too early. If there’s a choice between Lackey and Wieters, that’s an easy one for me, especially since I usually start drafting my starters in rounds seven and eight and need a good SP2 right there in the 10th and 11th rounds.
I like what you are saying, but I just wouldn’t start that early. I want to get my catchers after almost all of my positions are filled, I have two to three good starters and probably a closer or two. That means the earliest I’m going to pick a catcher is the fourteenth round or so. I’ll take Soto, Montero or Iannetta depending on the circumstances of my draft most likely. Or wait until the very end and get whatever’s left.
you keep saying you don’t want a catcher early, but is there a way to analyze if it makes sense? i hear you on the 85% of at bats, but it works the other way too.
isn’t it easier to find a decent hitting OF late? i’d expect that OF to hit for a higher average than your typical late catcher.
which early pick/late pick combo would you prefer:
.300 catcher/.270 outfielder
.270 catcher/.290 outfielder
considering scarcity of talent in a mid and late combo it might look more like:
.300 C / .275 OF
.265 C / .290 OF
both of them favor the early catcher. the second one by a lot. just making the point that 85% fewer at bats doesn’t bother me if the C is truly a better hitter than the OF available.
runs and rbi, huge difference if your C is a team’s #3 hitter. didn’t build any data to compare other stats tho.
i’m really not trying to be difficult. only once can i remember drafting a C in the top 10 rounds myself (mccann in the 10th two years ago, similar case almost).
i just wonder at what point should we not turn one down…for example, i’d take joe mauer in the 7th inning. maybe earlier. now, for me, the question becomes ‘how much like joe mauer can wieters be?’
I love Wieters this year, but when I think about how many at-bats are going to be against either CC Sabathia, Javy Vazquez, AJ Burnett, Jon Lester, Josh Beckett, John Lackey, James Shields, Matt Garza or David Price I tend to shy away.
Eno, what would be the spot where you would consider Joe Mauer a “value”? Cuz I’ve seen him going in the first round in mock drafts, is he a legit first rounder in your opinion?
What about Alex Avila in a deep league? I know Detroit already has Laird, so playing time might be hard to come by, though Laird can’t hit at all. Avila batted .279 with 5 HR, 14 RBI and a .590 SLG in only 61 bats (small sample size) at the MLB level, though he still hit well and showed power at Double A in 2009. If he was able to get playing time, what do you think of him?
Couple questions Eno. You touched on rare catchers who DH and accumulate more AB’s than the standard 85% the rest get, and I’m wondering if you can elaborate on the two situations:
1- With Gary Matthews dealt, and Hideki Matsui interested in receiving some OF starts, would you bump Napoli up or down your rankings if it were announced he’d get some starts at DH? He is obviously a thumper, so it would allow more opportunities to hit HR’s and accumulate counting stats, but it would also allow him a greater opportunity to hurt your BA. Seeing as it’s possible that Matsui may spell Rivera on occasion in the OF, and open up a DH spot for Napoli to man on a day off where Mathis starts, this seems like it could be a possibility.
2- With the possibility of Wieters DH’ing on his off days and thus receiving more opportunities to contribute positively in all stats (since his BA projects to be a positive, and any more AB’s would obviously help all counting stats), shouldn’t Wieters be valued about where he’s being drafted? He has a high ceiling, and seemingly high floor, and he should receive more AB’s than his catching counterparts, including premier NL catcher McCann, and Victor Martinez (who isn’t a lock to DH or man 1B much given the log jam at 1B/3B/DH for the Red Sox).
Final question in a wordy post. In roto leagues with daily changes, a medium sized bench, and a games played cap of 162 games per position, should any thought be given to getting a couple mid tiered catchers to accumulate all 162 games played at the position? Or perhaps a thumper and an average guy (think AJ P and Napoli). It really seems like a decent opportunity to get a slight leg up on the competition, but I’ve never seen it fully explored.
I’m currently taking part in a mock draft at the fantasy baseball cafe with a 5×5 roto setting (in theory since it is a mock) and I’m drafting as if it is daily changes, and a games played cap. For the sake of interest, I took McCann and Wieters (1 catcher league, 1 utility, 3 OF, no IF, CI, MI) to see what a team would look like going this route. Thus far I’m pleased with what I have (12 rounds in). Like you, I like filling out my roster with SP, RP, OF late as there is a ton of depth at those positions. Any thoughts would be appreciated. Thanks, and fun article, enjoyable read.
1) Mike Napoli also has Jeff Mathis to deal with and last year’s 389 ABs were a career high. He’d have to be lucky to get to the 85% level (490). Any increase in playing time would give him a nudge up.
2) If you are in the habit of taking guys in the first ten rounds that have never put together full seasons of solid production, and you take catchers before the late rounds, then Wieter’s potential added ABs are certainly a plus.
3) I’ve seen that philosophy attempted myself. It’s a bear. It’s so much work finding out which catcher is playing, and you lose a roster spot that would often go to an injured star. You can start the year doing it, but once you have an injured star or two and you are looking at playing that second catcher at util, you’ll stop trying to max out those ABs at catcher. I prefer to do it in the final month or two if I’m injury-free and can afford to spend a spot on a part-time player.
4) Good luck with that. McCann is a 20-HR guy going among the 30-40 HR guys. Picking him early will certainly cost you some ABs, Rs, HRs, RBIs on the other position players going around him. (Adam Lind, Justin Morneau and Ryan Zimmerman, for example).
Surprisingly, he was my 4th round selection after the likes of Hanley (pick 2), Ryan Zimmerman, Justin Upton. At the back end of the 4th for that matter (pick 47 to be exact). That said, I wouldn’t take him any higher than that.
I took Wieters in the 7th round (pick 74 overall), after having filled C, 1B, SS, 3B, OF 1, and SP 1. Obviously every draft will be different, but considering I believe Wieters will perform close to the level of James projection of production, he seemed like a reasonable choice there. Overall, I’m pleased with how the roster looks, and I’m curious to see the finished product looks.
After boring you with the details of the mock, I’ll just mention that while there are 30-40 HR guys around McCann, some of them have warts I’m just not willing to deal with, namely guys like Adam Dunn and Carlos Pena. That’s a lot of BA damage. There just seem to be few true locks for 30+ HR’s that can contribute even neutrally to BA, that it seems sacrificing 30+ for 20-25 and a neutral to positive BA at a scarce position would be something to consider. I hate to defend the catcher position, as I don’t typically like to take one high given the inherent risk of injury, and the lack of AB’s, but my thinking is changing a bit.
As far as drafting guys who don’t have a full season of solid contributions under their belt in the top 10 rounds,I don’t make a habit of it, but circumstances will lead me to do so on occassion. If a player is a blue chip prospect, has displayed a solid BB rate and a passable to good K rate in the high minors and limited time in the Majors I’ll usually give consideration to that player in the 7-10 round range if need be to secure them. Thanks for your thoughts so far.
i don’t like mccann that early because, well it’s early, and he’s a full time catcher. lack of dh and the obvious risk with his position makes a 4th round pick seem like a high price. i’d rather have granderson or ethier. that’s a good spot for a 2B also. were pedroia or cano still around?
i probably wouldn’t consider mccann until the 8th, but like mr. sarris suggests early C value can be in the eye of the drafter!
also why i struggle with victor martinez. he can get ab at DH or 1B…and if he gets banged up, there’s a good chance his bat gets into the lineup somehow. i could see well over 100 rbi for him, but still get nervous thinking about where to take him. my league chronically underdrafts C, so there’s a chance he could be around in the 4th or 5th. would 4th round for victor be a no-brainer??
I’d like to play in any league where VMart goes 4th round or below. Catcher-eligible cleanup hitter of the Red Sox?
I heard you got the fever for the flavor…