ADP Values at First Base
Looking at our evaluation of the tiers at the first base position, two things come to mind pretty quickly. If the final mixed-league tier includes players as interesting as Billy Butler (86.14 ADP) and Derrek Lee (85.56), you know the position is deep. The second thing you might notice is that once you factor in average draft position, there aren’t many values in this position. Four first basemen go in the first round (Albert Pujols (1.11), Mark Teixeira (7.31), Prince Fielder (8.13) and Miguel Cabrera (10.20)), and it’s hard to call a first-rounder a ‘value.’
But go down into the meaty portion of the position – the middle tier – and you may uncover a nice sleeper. Lance Berkman (59.89) has to be considered one of the more valuable players available in the fourth and fifth rounds. I know he’s coming off a bad year, but let’s play around with his stats in a less-than-scientific way, why don’t we? Look at Berkman’s batting average and BABIP since 2002. It’s sort of remarkable:
Don’t know about you, but by the theory of Alternating BABIPs in Berkman’s Career, I think it’s a stone-cold-lead-pipe lock that Berkman puts up a BABIP well over .300 and therefore a batting average over .300 (talk about some serious P-value on that ‘research’). Also, Berkman missed time and if you pro-rate out his home run total, you get the Steady Eddie 30 home runs that you can usually expect of the Astros’ first-sacker. I’d rather have Berkman in the late fourth or early fifth than Justin Morneau (38.78) in the late third or early fourth, for example. They are very similar first basemen.
In the all-power no-batting average mini-tier, there’s a surprising result. it looks like Carlos Pena (76.35) is the new Adam Dunn (55.95). It used to be that the bad batting average pulled Dunn down too far, making him under-rated and a value pick. Now that he’s a fifth-rounder, though, that might not be the case any longer. Why not just wait and get the other Dunn two rounds later? (That which we call a Dunn by any other name would swing as big.) Maybe Penas’ peaks and valleys in batting average and ISO power have been more extreme than Dunn, but that can cut both ways. Pena could easily outperform Dunn this coming year, for example.
The late-round values litter the fantasy landscape like brown crusty snow days after a blizzard (I’m not bitter, I promise). Adam LaRoche (201.68) represents the safest option, but he probably also tastes like un-marinated tofu. If .275 and 25 home runs is all you need out of your first baseman, go ahead and pick him late. But if you want tofu, why not take Paul Konerko (211.73) the next round? Sure, his ISO and walk rates are trending downwards, but his contact rates are steady, and even in a reduced form he mostly features better power than Laroche. If you want a little upside, Chris Davis (159.89) has power (.230 career ISO), that much we know. If he can pull that strikeout rate back down to the high twenties (he had a 24% k-rate in the minors), and push that walk rate up (8% in the minors), maybe he’ll make Bill James proud. (And I bet he tastes like a big old Texas T-Bone.)
13
I want steak
The Yahoo ADP’s for the top tier of first baseman are a bit lower:
Mark Teixeira- 12.1
Ryan Howard- 13.0
Prince Fielder- 14.5
Miguel Cabrera- 16.6
Those are all second round picks, with possibly Teixeira in the first. Those seem pretty low for me, considering Tulowitzki and Mauer are going earlier. I rather not gamble on my first round pick, and take one of these steady producers.
There should be 5 1B taken in the first round along with Hanley, Arod, Utley, Braun, Kemp, and Longoria. That accounts for 11 of the top 12. The other pick is a little more up in the air as far as I’m concerned. Yahoo’s rankings are so screwed up that it makes it hard to even draft there. They mean absolutely nothing to me.
5 1B in the first round – really? As in…Howard? Yuck.
(Of course, Tulo in the first round seems pretty yuck to me, too…)
I’m seeing a pretty big drop from 1-2 (Albert-Hanley in some order) to 3. Where do you go there – A-Rod? Chase? Braun? Reach for Longoria or Mauer? Get one of the stud 1B clones, with Big Tex or the Prince? I think I prefer Chase in the 3-hole, but I’ve seen mocks take it in a lot of different directions…
what’s wrong w/ ryan howard. you can pretty much pencil him in for 40+ homers and 130 rbi’s. Even if his BA drops he is a top 25 player.
Top 25? Sure. 1st round? Pass.
My top 12
1-Hanley Ramirez
2-Albert Pujols
3-Chase Utley
4-Alex Rodriguez
5-Matt Kemp
6-Ryan Braun
7-Troy Tulowitzky
8-David Wright
9-Mark Teixeira
10-Miguel Cabrera
11-Prince Fielder
12-Ian Kinsler
I hate reaching for 1B simply because it is shallow. I’d be okay with Dunn and Davis at first, assuming the rest of my team is better off.
David Wright does not belong in the top 25, much less the top 10. The guy had 10…..TEN homeruns last season. SO what’s a guy that lost his power do? He sheds 20 pounds of muscle! AKA stopped taking HGH. He doesn’t even look like the same guy. While he’s still a guy that can hit for a nice average and steal some bags, he’s not a guy that’s going to hit over 20 HRs this season. I think he’s more likely to hit 15 or less HRs and maybe steal 25 bases…still decent, but not elite. I’ll take Ryan Howard over him 100 times out of 100.
I’m a HUGE Kinsler fan, but he’s gotta keep the ball down if he wants to be a 1st rounder. I think he could go 30-30, but he needs to change his approach.
Over at MDC, all 5 1B are in the top 11 as I think they should be. The 5 big firstbasemen, Hanley, Arod, Utley, Braun, Kemp, and Longoria should definitely be in the first round. The last spot is up in the air, but I could see someone taking Lincecum or Mauer. Personally, I like Matt Holliday more than most and I’d put him in the discussion as well for #12.
Other than presuming he was on steroids, why weigh the 10 from last year more than the 29 he averaged for four years prior?
Mike Schmidt dropped 17 HR between ’77-’78 (about the same age as Wright is now). Came back the next year to set a career high. Must have stopped taking his horse drugs that one season eh? ;-)
Can you blame me for having a cynical outlook on the whole steroid issue? I’m kind of like Joseph McCarthy with communism. I guess we could call it Mcgwire-ism. If someone loses weight or has a down turn in power, then they’re guilty. What that…acne? Guilty!
Mike Schmidt didn’t play in the steroid era. I didn’t see Wright stick a needle in his butt, but I did see a guy take a major down turn in power and now he’s lost alot of weight and muscle bulk. That’s a red flag in my eyes. If you take him in the top 12 and he hits 10 HRs again, you are screwed. Go ahead and take that chance….I’ll take someone else. All of these guys losing weight are just fishy…Wright, Swisher, and Matt Stairs come to mind.
Let’s face it guys….there are a whole lot of MLB players that are still on HGH.
The problem with almost every Top 12 or any list for that matter, is the context.
This isn’t a Yahoo or ESPN or any specific leagues problem.
Depending on whats stats are most prolifically used (5x% or more). Depending on position eligibility. Roto vs Head to Head.
Every variable changes players values.
If any of these ranks bother you, make one yourself, and draft accordingly. No list is perfect.
Wright looks pretty jacked…just sayin
I don’t know why people have become so distraught about the Yahoo rankings. They aren’t close to what an educated fantasy manager agrees with, but the fact is that they only matter in the context of YOUR league. If you’re in a league where everyone trusts the rankings, it means that you (who supposedly knows better) can wait until the second round to draft Fielder or Howard or Cabrera. It should actually equate to an advantage to people who have researched.
Also, I think some of these rankings become so skewed because of the ‘position scarcity,’ at shortstop, for example. I’d actually like to read anyones thoughts on whether drafting talent-scarce positions early is more or less effective than drafting the highest ranked players available. It’s situational at times, but is it wise to draft Tulowitzki, I don’t know, Longoria?
Tulowitzki over*, I don’t know, Longoria?
Paul Bourdett over at Baseheads took a crowbar to Lance Berkman and I have to admit he made a lot of good points. I hesitate to rely too much on injury prognoses, considering my lack of a medical degree, but there are other good points:
http://base-heads.com/2010/03/04/big-puma-more-fat-elvis-than-you-think/
You literally could not screw up first base if you tried
13 (almost 14, see Pena) 1B had an OPS > .900. Paul Konerko is the #20 1B and is projected to hit .275-.280, 25-30 HR, 85 R, 90 RBI, 0-2 SB.
http://gameofinches.blogspot.com/2010/03/first-base-as-deep-as-it-gets.html