ADP Values at Second Base
A while back, we checked the position at second base and outlined some tiers that should help you choose between options in your draft. Unfortunately, this position doesn’t produce ADP values as cleanly as some other positions (and we like our values clean).
Take the first two tiers, for example. It would be nice to pick the lowest-drafted second baseman in the first two tiers, Brian Roberts (40.69 ADP), and just declare him the value of the two tiers. The problem is that Roberts has too many question marks to get the (grade A) stamp of approval as a value. For instance, though his ISO was a second-best last year (.168), and it seems to have grown organically (three straight increases), that ISO has famously peaked before (.201 in his 18-home-run 2005 season) and then returned back towards the baseline (.137). He’s 32 and his stolen bases have declined for two straight seasons. Then again, 2008 produced his career-best full-season speed score (7.3), and that wasn’t so long ago. The point is, counting on his for anything more than 12 or so home runs and 30 or so stolen bases probably isn’t a good idea, and those numbers seem a little light for the third round. On the other hand, Dustin Pedroia (37.48 ADP) goes three picks earlier and isn’t going to hit that stolen base number and may only out-homer Roberts by a handful. Maybe Roberts is the actual value here.
There is a lot of questionable power in the next tier. Aaron Hill (46.87 ADP), Robinson Cano (45.83 ADP) and Jose Lopez (123.97 ADP) all had power spikes last year, and their draft positions show the confidence the general public has that the different players will return with good power in 2010. Once again, it’s tempting to take Lopez with the lowest ADP and call him the value – and there are some reasons to believe the power will stick. His ISO, fly ball, and HR/FB rates have all steadily risen over the last three years. The problem is that, with his walk rate (3.7% career), his value is tied up in that power, and his career ISO (.141) is still low enough that it is hard to count on. Why not take Dan Uggla (85.10) a couple rounds earlier so that you can depend on his power (.225 career ISO)? Here it seems that Uggla is the real value in the tier.
The final tier is a rag-tag group, as Asdrubal Cabrera (158.18) and Howie Kendrick (146.64) leading the way, though neither is a lock to hit 15 home runs or stolen bases next year. They’ll have to hit a lot of singles to make up for their shortcomings in those two important fantasy categories. Again here, Clint Barmes (307.61) and Adam Kennedy (327.96) bring up the rear but have too many questions to tout as the values of the tier. Barmes doesn’t walk (4.3%), strikes out a fair amount (22% last year), and though he showed power last year (.195 ISO), his career power is less exciting (.157). He’s also done a lot of jumping around in the power department, and last year may have just defined his upside anyway. Kennedy had a nice year, but despite his 20 stolen bases last year, his speed score was actually below-average. He doesn’t really have a single skill you can count on.
If you’re going to take a plunge, why not take one on Rickie Weeks (212.37 ADP)? Yes, it will cost a healthier pick than Barmes, but we’re still talking about a 19th-round pick in mixed league drafts. His ISO has jumped around some too (.125 – .245), but it’s been trending upwards in a general way. There’s still the upside that he might finally put together one of his better strikeout rates (say, 2008’s 24.2%) with one of his better walk rates (11.8% in 2008) and BABIPs (.313 last year) and get his batting average up past the .250s. We know he has power and speed, and an okay batting average would make him a valuable second baseman, especially in head-to-head leagues. That he might be the value of the final tier should serve as a positional scarcity warning for the position, too.
Print This Post
Why no Black Sheep references this time?
Oh, you mean like
“Black Sheep, the definition, by now you should’ve known
It means wherever we rock the spot gets blown
So when you see is on a flyer, it should be your desire
To witness more wreck than a West coast fire
So be prepared to bounce jump around and all that
You don’t have to ask Jack, you know where the party’s at
It’s uptown in the Boogie Down so don’t sleep
On that Non Fiction hit by Black Sheep”
?
Eno have a hot dog with me
Polanco? (undrafted ADP in a 25-player draft):
Marcel projects 10 hr, 83 r, 64 rbi, 4sb, .297 avg.
My dream first and second rounders aren’t Utley and Kinsler, and there are a bunch of positions I see worthy picks in rounds around there and way below, so why not punt 2b and grab him late?
How could a 30-30 2B not be your dream second round pick? You can’t get much better than that.
Polanco is a poor-man’s Asdrubal. I agree you could do worse considering he’s practically guaranteed to be a value ADP.
i think 2B is baseball’s shallowest position. The drop off by tier is incredible. Whereas all but the top 3 catchers can be said to be “equally shitty” and where as 3B has plenty of options as does 1B and OF, 2B is the place to spend your money. Even SS has late round gold in Andrus
I wouldn’t touch a SS until Alexei if he’s available after the 8th round. I love Andrus and Alcides, even Yunel isn’t going to hurt a team.
But geez…after Zobrist there just aren’t that many guys who will contribute across the board. I do think Asdrubal is undervalued a bit, but ideally I want one top tier 2B and then either Asdrubal or perhaps Ian Stewart.
I won’t be overpaying for a guy like Uggla. The hr are nice, but in the top 10 rounds I want more than just one or two categories. (And when they hurt your average, that needs made up in steals or runs to justify.)
Would rather punt 2B than reach for middle tier. Who’s a good ‘emergency parachute’ pick beside polanco??
I agree, I think 2B is the worst position this year. As for leaving Polanco out, I’ll admit a blind eye to Polanco. He was over-rated for so long that I developed an ‘early-exclude’ philosophy towards him. Now that he’s so cheap (ADP >350), he’s certainly a value.
I think Kelly Johnson (ADP >350) is also a nice late-round parachute pick. If his luck stats rebound, he should be able to put together more power than Polanco, a decent batting average, and maybe even a couple steals. He’d be my deep league value at 2B.
Thanks on the KJ pick. I remember when he was Asdrubal-esque. Could very well wind up above average.
Do you think he’s more than an emergency pick?? I waited on 2B last year, knowing that I had a bullseye on Aaron Hill late. If KJ can give 15th round production with a 23rd round pick…I’ll be able to wait a little longer on 2B targets.
K.J. and Cabrera are the only two id maybe want. Personally, I’m spending big on 2B and SS. I can get Andrus in the form of Julio Bourbon cheap and late.
I second that. The only guys that I would consider based on these ADP’s are Utley if he falls quite a bit, Kinsler, and Phillips. I don’t see the appeal of Roberts at that price. It’s not like he’s stealing 50 bases anymore, his power is weak, and his batting average isn’t THAT good. He seems like a marginal improvement over guys going twice as far down as him. Likewise, Pedroia seems to always go too early. Is 2B the only position you can get batting average improvement or something? Is 15-20 really worth that price? Using a pick around 40, I would have to imagine I could net enough extra hitting or speed (in a CI or OF spot) to more than compensate for the difference between him and a 10-10 guy or a 5-30 guy.
What is the likelihood that Pedroia gets SS eligibility this year? I keep hearing whispers of a move
What about my boy Martin Prado? He’s not gonna do anything special in the Home Run or steals category, but if he gets put into that #2 spot in the Atlanta lineup he could be a real asset in Batting Average and Runs. Surely he has more value than Polanco or Kelly Johnson right?
Not sure more value than Polanco, pretty similar if the lineups stack up similarly. Prado has no speed and middling power. If he’s more expensive than Polanco, then no thanks. (and he is Prado ADP – 285.93). Another batting average and runs guy. I rarely draft for runs, and I hope for good BAs from my power/speed players.
Especially considering he has (in Yahoo leagues, anyway) 1B/2B/3B eligibility.
I actually think 2B is stronger this year than in the past. I’m I the only one? There’s a solid set of post-2nd round guys from pedroia to hill that seems to be deeper than in the past. In a twelve team league, a lot of guys are going to get decent 2Bs, more so than in past years. Compare 2b to SS and there is no one with close to the upside of kendrick or weeks available in the same rounds. I’ve been waiting on those guys. If you miss them (and in many non-expert leagues kendrick is going to go way too late sometimes), then 2B still has some good fall-back guys like polanco or a project like scott sizemore.
More importantly, because all those guys like pedroia aren’t super studs. You really won’t be that far behind any other team (other than utley and maybe kinsler) by waiting. The last one to grab a SS is in trouble. The same is true for 2b. But I don’t think the same is true for 2b. There’s a lot more room to fade the draft on this position and wait for value than any other scarce position. In a twelve team league, there’s a guy that makes decent sense value wise early middle or late. Good luck hoping for that at SS. And while there are big upside guys (like Beltre or Gordon) late at 3b, relatively they have to come on alot more because you have more catching up to do against the guys who drafted top 3Bs (with again the exceptions of Utley and maybe kinsler). Strategically, 2b is the position to wait on this year.
Sorry, next post starting “i agree in theory” was reply to jacked.
I tend to agree with you in theory. The problem comes in application.
Last night I did a mock draft where I tried to be patient with 2B. Wound up missing the variety of targets I had at different points of the draft (Pedroia, Cano, Zobrist, Stewart, Asdrubal, Kendrick all went earlier than I was willing to go). That’s different from SS, where guys like Bartlett, Andrus, either of the Escobars are in a slightly tigher grouping. Then you really can be patient and as soon as one or two from that group get taken, you know when you need to act. With 2B and C this year, I like a wide spectrum of players…but targeting them without reaching is more difficult.
Is it wise to pass on Pedroia for Granderson? Might depend on the league rosters. Most mockdraftcentral formats have the 2B/SS/MI format. My league will have 12 teams with two 2B and two SS. Now, instead of “settling” for the 15th best 2B in round 20, you’re looking at the 21st best at similar point.
That’s why I like to calculate my own VAM (value above mean). Tells me what the average 2B—in my draft format—is likely to do, then tells me how far above/below that guys are. Only then can I really gauge a decision such as Cano vs Lind…Pedroia vs Granderson…Zobrist vs Dunn.
I can see that. the leagues i’ve already been drafting in don’t use MI/CI slots. Once you have those some the 2b depth is going to go to the extra slot. But a lot of that is because SS is so weak. For instance, I don’t really see why Escobar (who is a great real life glove man and prospect) is really any better value that Scott Sizemore. Escobar is young and his value is likely only speed which may not even come in volume his first year. And you don’t have depth like polanco, KJohnson, etc. at SS. As for 3b, if you use a CI/MI slot, then 3b is less scary than 2b because 2b will fill alot of CI slots while 2bs will fill the MI. But in a league with straight positions, I still dread the 3b draft more. I just feel like this year, every time you miss a 2b target there’s someone who is incrementally down the list to fill in at a decent value/price trade-off. In a league with a MI slot where 2bs are going early, I would much prefer to target two SSs and a late 2b and then trade in-season one of my SSs for any 2b in someone else’s CI slot who also has a bad SS. I think there will be a lot of value there. SS is very weak this year. As for VAM calculating, I agree, but I’m also pretty big on strategizing to avoid getting stuck where talent drops off steeply. I think there are some steep shelves at SS and 3b this year (and worse for 3b, several top guys are really good), but 2b you don’t go that wrong by missing out. As such, my strategy this year is to max out SS and 3b values because those are the ones that are most likely to see the biggest difference from VAM depending on how a given league drafts. (C is a tough position too, but for drafting not so much, you get one of the top couple guys or you just wait). in past years, i’ve often thought 2b was a tougher position than SS and certainly worse to draft, but doing some drafts this year (again without CI/MI) I think this year 2b has a lot more depth (and 3b and SS are worse). In an optimal situation I like taking a 3b no later than sandoval, trying hard to fit a SS into a good VAM situation early, getting a good value early OF/1B and (because there are more good early SPs this year too) getting an SP by the time Verlander goes off. If I sacrifice a 2b till later to do it, it seems that’s only a small sacrifice, but making up missing out on one of those picks to grab a 2b feels like it usually costs more.
I like your angle of a general position approach. This year for me:
3B – I must get early quality if available. Otherwise I’ll reach a little bit in mid rounds for a Stewart/Beltre type.
1B – I will jump on anytime, but won’t reach if the position is overdrafted early. Oh, and I am getting Chris Davis.
2B – I’d take in early rounds at a fair price, or go for undevalued guys in mid rounds (asdrubal has ‘sneaky’ value).
SS – None early, fill in middle rounds.
OF – So much value, basically will play it by ear for best balance. Ideal OF (based on ADP) would be J Upton, Granderson, McCutchen, Bruce, Borbon.
C – From Victor to Yadir Molina, I find it similar to 2B. Could get a big lead on other teams IF you draft the right catcher at the right spot. Could also find late value and not lose a ton of ground there.
As for the tiers dropping off, that’s what I use VAM to spot. Using a 0-100 point scale, the mean for 1B might wind up at 45, where 2B is 33. But if the high and low producers at 1B are closer to the mean than at 2B, I’d rather wait on the position with the higher floor.
Interesting how differently position depth can be viewed. I think a personal bias of mine (that I’m finally understanding) is the PRESSURE that comes along with waiting on a semi-thin position. If I like 2 of the final 6 2B on the board, I have a hard time waiting patiently…always worried that the two I like will get drafted. Instead of maximizing value, I tend to reach for the late offensive picks too early.
We disagree on Pedroia’s value for next year, but I think he earns 3rd round value easily. I know his hr/sb stats aren’t sexy, but he doesn’t hurt you in rbi, and he’s a stud in runs/average.
Here’s the thing with your approach, Jimbo: you have to take SOMEONE early! hahah. You don’t like Jimmy or Reyes in the second or third rounds?
Eno, no way I take Rollins or Reyes before the third round. I read the fangraphs article about SS being unreliable, and agreed completely. ;-)
My ideal first 5 rounds would include two 3B, and one each of 1B, OF, 2B. That’s as far as I’ve planned…after that I expect to simply react to the draft.
Interesting, I like pedroia a lot and he is third round value. I’ve just decided that 2b is a position there is no need to reach for this year as there’s usually incremental value. But for 5×5 draft strategy, pedroia is great pick and I put him above some of the others in his tier for sure. He gives you across the board stats. I like that in the early rounds, since early round balance means you’re not stuck drafting for categories later and focus on value over balance. The one cat he’s low in is rbis, but he’s not bad for his position and personally, I find rbis one of the easier cats to fill late if I need it and it’s hard to replicate his run totals outside of the first few rounds. Additionally, for H2H, he’s relatively consistent, just pumping out hits, doubles and runs and consistency matters for H2H. For roto, his avg is nice and he gets alot of ABs. He’s basically a younger derek jeter at 2b (with a little less pop). The stats don’t look that sexy at first glance, but they really set you up to draft well. As you can tell, I’m all about picks that set you up to draft better in later rounds. He fits that mold, so I like him – for all these reasons he’s above the guys in his tier, but when i look at value there’s a bunch of guys close behind him. there’s enough times i get someone at value that i just prefer to wait (but if value turns into pedroia, great). Every other year for i don’t know how long, i’ve always gone 2b early because it always seemed weak. I just don’t see getting stuck in a bad spot at 2b this year like you could have in the past. (3B is the waiting pitfall this year, absolutely the position to hit hard early this year).
I think there’s Utley, Kinsler, Pedroia…then everyone else. Last year a lot of 2B put up sexy numbers that will get them drafted in the top 5 rounds, but on guys like Hill, Zobrist, even Cano…I’m with you. I’d much rather wait than hope for a career-best repeat.
The one mid-rounder people really don’t value is Asdrubal Cabrera. Probably won’t crack the top 50 in production, and probably doesn’t have much more upside, but he will help in avg, runs, rbi, steals, and at least gives you 5-10 hr. I love guys like him (in the 12th) over the “gambles” of Kendrick, Weeks, McGehee, Prado, K Johnson. Polanco is comparable, but older and slightly inferior in most stats. I’d rather leave a pitching spot to the end and lock up a solid producer. Supporting cast around the studs can make or break a team, eh?
And last year I used the heck out of his dual position eligibility. I’d say that’s worth a round or two of value.
for the middle guys, I’m high on Hill, lukewarm on Zobrist, and cold on Cano and A. Cabrera. I’d rather have Kendrick or Weeks than Cano or Asdrubal…
Curious why you have those preferences. Hill’s HR rate seems unsustainable and he doesn’t steal bases. Cano has phenomenal peripherals, is 27, in a great park and lineup. Kendrick hasn’t put in a full season yet and weeks has more flags than the UN.
Asdrubal simply needs to repeat his 09 stats to be a huge value, at 26 I could see improvement more than regression…and his peripherals are strong.
But I love hearing other views as I fear developing too much player bias!
And what are the chances that EY Jr. breaks through and grabs the 2B job in CO? Probably slim, right?
If and when EY2 starts, he’s going to be a very valuable 2b. But he’s still got glove issues and Barmes ahead of him. It looks like he’s going to be a bench guy and/or more AAA. But if he starts, I take him above a number of guys mentioned. As a leadoff hitter, I don’t really see him having a problem hitting 5+hr and 45+SBs with a .280+ AVG. At 2B, that would very nice.
I also like cabrera if he falls late and more especially where i speculate on 2b and ss. He was given a nice lineup spot late last year. Assuming he maintains it, he will get more RBIs than you might expect given his power (or lack thereof) and he has upside. I also like him where you draft some upside guys at 2b and ss and can trade one later on (and slot cabrera in). Someone will need a 2b or SS and cabrera gives you lots of trade flexibility to accomodate that and maximize trade value. So if I take kendrick and drew and one doesn’t pan out, i still have cabrera. If they both do I can make a very good trade. he’s a great handcuff picks you aren’t crazed about.
I think EY2 is a dynasty and deeper league get, but not sure he’s valuable in redraft or mixed leagues just yet. That said, see my comments on Barmes to see how little I value him. He could easily have one of his poor ISO years and crap out again, and here comes the speedster!
I have NO problem getting a second baseman late. There do seem to be three or so studs at the position and a lot of nothing thereafter, and that’s a classic situation for “Pick early or pick late.” My problem with Asdrubal is that I don’t believe in his power or his speed, so he’s really like the new Polanco. That’s fine if it’s really cheap, but if it’s really cheap, I also get tempted to pick a risky upside play that might actually give me some power help, too.
So, obviously, I’m not enamored with Kendrick over Asdrubal, especially when given their prices. Asdrubal only gives up a handful of homers, and will out-steal Kendrick. if the BABIP comes down, he may not have as nice of a BA, but Kendrick is no lock in that department himself. But when we are talking about KJ and Weeks, then there’s potential there for power and speed, and risk in batting average… and they are even cheaper!
Here’s where determining if you are in an H2H or Roto league becomes pretty important.
Where would Zobrist rank among 2B in an OBP league?
Eno –
Are you going to compile a list (after you cover all positions) of the 2-3 best values per position?
I think something needs to be said about “ADP” at mockdraft central…while I use it and do think it has some use, it should be taken with a grain of salt.
I have done numerous (way too many) mock drafts and at best only half the room is on autodraft (you can tell b-c that team picks instantly for each pick after the 1st round). With that being said don’t you think that ADP is shortsighted when half the time it is the computer automatically drafting whatever player that MockDraftCentral has ranked in their specified order?
It seems to me that ADP is mainly a mirror image of MockDraftCentral’s player rankings.
For example: Carlos Delgado (163), Paul Konerko (217). First off, Carlos Delgado isn’t on a team and may retire while Konerko is what he is. Regardless, this is a clear example of how the autopick during a draft effects the ADP rankings and is something that should be taken in account when looking at ADP.
Thoughts?
That is a good point. Do you have a better source for ADP values?
I’ve actually “studied” my league’s previous drafts against published ADP. Where consistent trends exist (fewer starters early, more starters and OF in mid rounds, much later picks for RP and C) I can then take current ADP and arrive at a league-specific rankings.
I simply take that adjusted ADP and bucket players into 2-round groupings. In the 5th/6th rounds, I’d rather know the group of players likely to go as opposed to a numbered list. That can lead to thinking “Manny, Beltran, Soriano, Choo, and Victorino are still available, so I can wait on Ethier.” Fact is, all their ADP are within 16 spots of one another and who’s to say Ethier really is “safe”? In a grouping, I can at least see that if I want Ethier I’d better start thinking about taking him.
MDC actually has parameters for which drafts contribute to their published ADP. Namely, if there are a certain number of picks made from autodraft…that whole mock is excluded. Not sure if it counts non-computer teams where the owner takes off after 10 rounds, but they seem aware of that self-fulfilling ADP issue and try to reduce its impact.
That being said, I still question the results for a variety of reasons.
1. Even humans using the MDC ‘default’ rankings will obviously be prone to the power of suggestion. Brett Anderson is one example, where he’s MUCH more popular of late than the default rankings showed. I’d think it likely that his ADP will be slightly supressed simply from people not seeing him in the queue of available pitchers early enough. Same goes for guys like Webb and Liriano. Conversely, Jeter shows up much earlier than most people want him, so I’d think he might fall even more in actual drafts. I don’t know how many use the custom ranking function.
2. Format has a lot to do with ADP. In Mixed 5×5, there are almost always 2C…but not in my league. So I shouldn’t take Montero’s ADP as seriously when preparing for my draft. Opposite goes for CI/MI, where my league requires 2 players at each infield position…skewing the demand curve. Then there are the Yahoo formats with 3 OF and 1 at each infield spot.
3. Projections. Since you’ve done a lot of mocks, maybe you can confirm or deny how much influence the projection page has. I try not to put any stock in them, but when I’m TRYING to build a power team and still wind up middle-of-the-pack…it’s good to know and hard to ignore. I wonder sometimes how many regulars there are treating it like a “winnable” game. I know in the later rounds I’ve passed on sleepers I like (eg. Clay Bucholz) to take someone I *think* the system likes better (eg. Kuroda). Mostly because I want to know how my earlier picks actually stack up…did I do well in era/whip and so on.
I think it can be more helpful that just a grain of salt though. I love that they give you earliest/latest data, the actual distribution graphs, and a trend report. Bruce and Hawpe may have similar ADPs, but Jay will likely have a much larger range. For Hawpe, I’m probably looking just at his ADP. For Bruce, however, I’d look at his distribution chart to understand how long he can be considered “safe.” Or how long I can hope to wait.
Also, I know from prior years that my league tends to overstate player movements. Bruce was a hot target last year and went ‘early’ in my league. This year I bet he goes later than his ADP. For that, the trend reports are rather useful.
Lastly, regardless of which round Asdrubal Cabrera is being drafted in (on average)…I’m just as, if not more, concerned with his ranking AMONG other MI. He’s a solid target of mine, and it is more useful to know he’s going well after Bartlett, Alexei, Drew, Lopez…and just after Kendrick and Yunel. In the draft, I can now treat those other players as a sort of guage to tell me if I can wait another round on him, or if he’s among the next MI likely to go. If it is a decision between Asdrubal and player X…the remaining options can help break a tie if one guy is more likely to last another turn. That is extremely useful to me on draft day as it should reflect general preferences within each position.
Yeah…I’ve done a couple mocks as well. ;-)
Man, I need to get a life eh? In full Dungeon Master mode right now.