I simply take that adjusted ADP and bucket players into 2-round groupings. In the 5th/6th rounds, I’d rather know the group of players likely to go as opposed to a numbered list. That can lead to thinking “Manny, Beltran, Soriano, Choo, and Victorino are still available, so I can wait on Ethier.” Fact is, all their ADP are within 16 spots of one another and who’s to say Ethier really is “safe”? In a grouping, I can at least see that if I want Ethier I’d better start thinking about taking him.

That being said, I still question the results for a variety of reasons.
1. Even humans using the MDC ‘default’ rankings will obviously be prone to the power of suggestion. Brett Anderson is one example, where he’s MUCH more popular of late than the default rankings showed. I’d think it likely that his ADP will be slightly supressed simply from people not seeing him in the queue of available pitchers early enough. Same goes for guys like Webb and Liriano. Conversely, Jeter shows up much earlier than most people want him, so I’d think he might fall even more in actual drafts. I don’t know how many use the custom ranking function.
2. Format has a lot to do with ADP. In Mixed 5×5, there are almost always 2C…but not in my league. So I shouldn’t take Montero’s ADP as seriously when preparing for my draft. Opposite goes for CI/MI, where my league requires 2 players at each infield position…skewing the demand curve. Then there are the Yahoo formats with 3 OF and 1 at each infield spot.
3. Projections. Since you’ve done a lot of mocks, maybe you can confirm or deny how much influence the projection page has. I try not to put any stock in them, but when I’m TRYING to build a power team and still wind up middle-of-the-pack…it’s good to know and hard to ignore. I wonder sometimes how many regulars there are treating it like a “winnable” game. I know in the later rounds I’ve passed on sleepers I like (eg. Clay Bucholz) to take someone I *think* the system likes better (eg. Kuroda). Mostly because I want to know how my earlier picks actually stack up…did I do well in era/whip and so on.

I think it can be more helpful that just a grain of salt though. I love that they give you earliest/latest data, the actual distribution graphs, and a trend report. Bruce and Hawpe may have similar ADPs, but Jay will likely have a much larger range. For Hawpe, I’m probably looking just at his ADP. For Bruce, however, I’d look at his distribution chart to understand how long he can be considered “safe.” Or how long I can hope to wait.

Also, I know from prior years that my league tends to overstate player movements. Bruce was a hot target last year and went ‘early’ in my league. This year I bet he goes later than his ADP. For that, the trend reports are rather useful.

Lastly, regardless of which round Asdrubal Cabrera is being drafted in (on average)…I’m just as, if not more, concerned with his ranking AMONG other MI. He’s a solid target of mine, and it is more useful to know he’s going well after Bartlett, Alexei, Drew, Lopez…and just after Kendrick and Yunel. In the draft, I can now treat those other players as a sort of guage to tell me if I can wait another round on him, or if he’s among the next MI likely to go. If it is a decision between Asdrubal and player X…the remaining options can help break a tie if one guy is more likely to last another turn. That is extremely useful to me on draft day as it should reflect general preferences within each position.

Yeah…I’ve done a couple mocks as well. ;-)

Man, I need to get a life eh? In full Dungeon Master mode right now.

I have done numerous (way too many) mock drafts and at best only half the room is on autodraft (you can tell b-c that team picks instantly for each pick after the 1st round). With that being said don’t you think that ADP is shortsighted when half the time it is the computer automatically drafting whatever player that MockDraftCentral has ranked in their specified order?

It seems to me that ADP is mainly a mirror image of MockDraftCentral’s player rankings.

For example: Carlos Delgado (163), Paul Konerko (217). First off, Carlos Delgado isn’t on a team and may retire while Konerko is what he is. Regardless, this is a clear example of how the autopick during a draft effects the ADP rankings and is something that should be taken in account when looking at ADP.

Thoughts?

Are you going to compile a list (after you cover all positions) of the 2-3 best values per position?

My ideal first 5 rounds would include two 3B, and one each of 1B, OF, 2B. That’s as far as I’ve planned…after that I expect to simply react to the draft.