ADP Values at Shortstop
When we checked the position at shortstop, it became clear through the tiers that there were some values to be had. Shortstop can be a tough position in fantasy baseball, because it’s one of the most volatile positions, but it’s also a shallow position. Having a stud there is immensely valuable, and that’s why many a successful manager will pick one in the early rounds. On the other hand, there were plenty of fantasy teams that were sunk by their early shortstop picks last year (thank you, Jose Reyes!).
So what are we to do? The answer, as always, is to focus on the position and yet avoid overpaying. So let’s take a look at the Average Draft Positions (via Mock Draft Central) and see some similar players that will cost disparate draft picks in 2010. That’ll bag us some value picks.
Alexei Ramirez is a fine player. He managed better-than-scratch defense at shortstop this year (+2.4 UZR/150), cut down on his terrible reach rate (from 42.7 to 32.1%), and made more contact in the zone (87.6% to 91%) in 2009. He still doesn’t hit line drives (16.1% career) and his power is suspect (.185 ISO in 2008, .113 ISO in 2009), but he’s a fine player with the upside to hit .280 with 20 home runs and 20 stolen bases. His ADP (108.2) is not terrible – using an eighth-round pick on that upside is fine.
But what if I told you that you could wait another six rounds and get someone that might better Ramirez’ production this year? That’s right, Elvis Andrus is being drafted, on average, with the 179th pick of drafts this year. Andrus won’t give you the power that his white-socked counterpart will provide, but he will certainly out-steal Sexei. The fans like Andrus for 42 stolen bases next year, and that is a reasonable projection given his 33 successful thefts in only 39 attempts in his rookie year. Their batting averages are projected to be similar (Andrus is projected from .266 to .280, Ramirez .277 to .286), so you’d be paying 70 draft spots for about ten home runs if you draft Ramirez. Andrus is the value here.
Rafael Furcal has already been eviscerated by Zach Sanders this site, and maybe y’all are listening because his ADP went from 127 at the time of his post to 130.34 currently. Well, maybe a couple of you are listening, but we’ll let Zach’s analysis speak for itself. Yunel Escobar certainly is more likely to have a healthy year than Furcal and is going two-to-three rounds later (ADP 156.06), so you’d think he’s the value of his tier. There are certainly some nice things about Escobar – his power seems to be slowly developing as his ISO, fly ball and HR/FB numbers have all increased in his first three years in the league. But he still only shows modest power (his .136 ISO in 2009 was his career high) and unless you are in an OBP league, Escobar’s 15 or so home runs and five or so stolen bases aren’t very exciting.
The real value of this tier comes a whopping 111 picks later. Ryan Theriot won’t knock the stitches out of any balls this year, but once again we have the option of eschewing a mere dozen home runs at most and reaping the benefits of almost ten rounds of picks in the mean time (his ADP is 267.61!). Theriot should steal as many as 20 more bases than Escobar, all while putting up a similar batting average. His OBP won’t even be that much worse than Escobar’s, as he’s projected to put up a number in the .350s while the Atlanta shortstop should come in somewhere in the .370s. I’ll take the cheaper shortstop here, making Theriot the true value of the final shortstop tier.
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Good piece Eno. Looking forward to the series.
Yeah, this will make a good series.
With SS I have found value in past years picking a non-SS with SS eligibility, eg Michael Young, Zobrist, etc. You get the benefit of flexibility and sometimes get a better player because of the deeper pools at other positions.
Perala this year maybe? Obviuosly was horrible last year, so may really slip in drafts. Could provide some nice power at SS comparatively speaking.
I don’t think Peralta qualifies at SS this year.
Like at catcher, joser’s idea about non-shortstop shortstops is a good idea, but probably won’t be covered in this series since I made the rule that we are ranking/discussing players at their primary position. Perhaps we’ll take that and run with it some other way on this site.
On twitter, Steve Gardner from the USAToday fantasy section (@sgardnerUSAT) agreed on Andrus and Theriot, and The Pickup Artist Paul Bourdett from RotoExperts (@PaulMBourdett) mentioned Everth Cabrera as cheaper than Theriot. Suprisingly, Cabrera is going before Theriot, while Theriot should put in a better batting average. I think I might prefer the Cubs shortstop to Cabrera, especially if he’s cheaper, but the two combined make for a good late-round safety net if you don’t like where the shortstops are going in your draft.
Yeah, it’s tough because different leagues have different thresholds for position eligibility. It might be interesting to end the series with a “utility player” post looking at the best of the players that are likely to have multiple eligibility in most leagues. One thing I’ve always had trouble with is weighting the value of those kinds of players — obviously it depends on who you already have as the primary guy at those positions, but how much “bonus” should additional positions give a guy compared to other one-positions-only guys at his primary position?
Catcher is an extreme case because you’re pretty much guaranteed to have your primary catcher be inactive at least one day a week, so you can pick up a lot of otherwise wasted opportunities if you have a guy like Inge in years past who was eligible but was playing another position fairly well.
Alicdes Escobar is another great SS value. You can draft him in the 20th round or later, and he should be good for 600+ PAs, 90 Rs, 40 SBs, and an AVG from .270 to .280. I’d rather have him than Theriot.
I’m with you there. And I think he has a lot of upside in average. Not saying he’ll hit .300 right away, but his peripherals seem to suggest he can IMO. AND…he won the Venezuela league batting title! Not sure the pitching was high caliber, but still a good sign.
I’d rather have him, at his relative draft pick, than probably any other SS.
how many bases did he steal last year in the bigs?
I took Reyes over Pujols but I was still able to win the league.
I’ve always been waiting for Stephen Drew to break out, he could be a steal in the late rounds, or a waiver wire guy. He turns 27 this season, he plays in a hitters park, he’s in the weak league, and he had 29 doubles and 12 triples last season. This season all of those extra base hits could turn into HRs this season.
He’s one that really hurt me last year. Why is it so hard to have an unbiased perspective on those guys??
Tough to get a good sense of him from peripherals. Up and down without much to trend. BB/K is a crapshoot, although his contact % has gotten better.
I understand why the NL West isn’t seen as the best hitting league, and it’s true the Padres aren’t going to offer much challenge in terms of pitching. However, I don’t know if a division that features Lincecum, Cain, Sanchez, Jimenez, de la Rosa and Kershaw can be seen as beneficial for hitters. I feel sorry for the Padres hitters who have to add Haren and Webb to that list!
SS could be a position to wait on this year, if you don’t get Han Ram or perhaps Tulowitzki.
Additional bargains:
Everth Cabrera
JJ Hardy
Stephen Drew
Mike you really think Hardy could be a bargain this year? Maybe if defense is counted in your fantasy league. How exactly is Hardy gonna get better going to a completely new (and better) league? He KILLED fantasy owners last year.
Good post overall Eno. I love me some Elvis Andrus also, especially if he’s going in the 13th or 14th round in a 12 team mixed! One question I have, where are Reyes-Rollins-Tulowitzki going in drafts?
I’m simply guessing that Hardy is better than he showed last year. Sometimes guys benefit from a change in scenery. I’d rather toss a late pick his way than use an early one of Reyes.
Miguel Tejada could end up in the right place to pay off. He’s being completely forgotten in keeper/auction leagues right now.
PS Is it by form (seoncdary position) that Zobrist isn’t being mentioned as a top-5 producer here?
Ca-ching! Tejada (SS-elig) BAL’s everyday 3B.
no love for bartlett
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