ADP Values at Third Base
It’s time for another episode of “You can get with that, but this is where it’s at,” boys and girls. This week, we take a look at the heroes manning what may prove to be the thinnest position on the diamond. Where shortstop had such frugal luminaries as Everth Cabrera, Ryan Theriot and Elvis Andrus, and catcher featured thrifty backstops like Miguel Montero and A.J. Pierzynski, we may have a harder time finding values at the hot corner.
As usual, we’ll start in the first tier. You can’t really fault anyone for going big with Alex Rodriguez (despite the hip and the age, 3.37 ADP), David Wright (despite the power outage, 14.76 ADP), Evan Longoria (I don’t see a problem here, 10.28 ADP) or Mark Reynolds (the king of the whiff, 20.17 ADP). Why is Ryan Zimmerman being drafted at the end of the third round (39.78 ADP)? I guess people are suspicious of his career high .233 ISO (and 33 home runs) last year. I take the view that nothing seems out of place for a 25 year-old top prospect with a .229 minor league ISO and a slowly increasing fly ball rate, who is also on the correct side of his peak. Sign me up for some of that in 2010.
The next tier has some svelte athletes (Pablo Sandoval, 44.83 ADP), some slow-footed plodders (Chone Figgins, 77.84 ADP) and some low-contact sluggers (Michael Young, 93.51 ADP). Scarcasm aside, why not take a player with possibly the same amount of risk (and yet bundles of upside) a little bit later than the fellow members of his tier? Gordon Beckham (93.87 ADP) had a good rookie season despite a low line drive percentage (16.6%) that kept his BABIP down (.294), and therefore his batting average (.270). But look at the good side, if you prorate out his stats, he had a 21-home run, 11 stolen-base kind of year, and his line drive rates were much higher in the minor leagues. Even if he just finished out the pro-rated string next year, he’d be an ADP value in his tier. Bend it like Beckham!
Let’s move past mixed metaphors to the final tier. This tier makes you realize how turdly third base truly is this year. You can gamble on next year’s Mark Reynolds with Ian Stewart (131.84 ADP) or put your grandfather Larry Wayne Jones (ADP 134.39) in the position and cross your fingers. The projection systems don’t like the bearded wonder Casey Blake (ADP 162.64) for good reason, as late bloomers are usually early exits. You could say the same about Mark DeRosa (ADP 246.44), really. Who’s to like in this tier?
The answer, in the immortal words of Homer Simpson, is “I… don’t… know.” I’d probably try to avoid the whole situation altogether by drafting a third-sacker earlier. But I think I might take a pair of players from the bottom, and those two might be Adrian Beltre (ADP 199.55) and Alex Gordon (245.03). Some may say that splits aren’t statistically significant, but perhaps that’s not true in Beltre’s case, who has a grand total of 3272 away at-bats away from pitcher’s havens in Los Angeles and Seattle. In those (probably significant at-bats), he’s put up a .287/.338/.488 career line (compared to a .726 OPS at home). I’d just cover my butt with a post-hype sleeper like Gordon, who had been making nice strides in walk rate, strikeout rate, ISO, line drive rate, and reach rate before injury sidelined him last year. I’ll be owning him more than once this year, I’d reckon.
Ah! Let me stop you right there. Jorge Cantu is ranked as a first baseman.
13
Whither Youk?
He’s ranked at 1B because he spent more time there in 09.
Aramis might be a slight bargain, if you manage to find a league without a rabid Cubs fan.
Actually a guy like Beltre would be best for a franchise in need of some decent power, and a great glove. I also think Tejada might surprise some people this season, but he’d be a pretty high risk. Will he hit over .300 again, and perhaps get some of the power he’s seemed to have lost back? Plenty of players usually have one last hurrah, and moving back to the American League playing third base(while having the DH as an occasional option) could prove key.
Depending on where the value lies when I pick in my drafts, I could see myself owning Beltre/Gordon in some leagues. I really think the move from right-handed hitter hell a.k.a SAFECO to a hitter friendly park in Fenway will help him a lot. I would not be shocked to see a healthy Beltre slug 25-30 HR’s swipe 10 bags and hit around .280. Tough to project his runs and rbi’s until we see Tito’s lineup.
As far as Gordon, like you, I suspect he’ll end up on a healthy (or perhaps unhealthy if he doesn’t improve) number of my teams. Before last year’s injury marred campaign he had been making some strides as you mentioned in ISO, BB rate and K rate. He already hits righties well, so with any luck, and some serious work, perhaps he straightens things out a bit against lefties. Perhaps not, but at pick 245, that’s a gamble worth taking IMO.
There is an obvious dropoff in talent after the upper tiers, but I’m not finding third base to be as craptastic as others.
B-Chad, I wish you would have read this before you took Zimmerman in the 2nd round of our mock.
In a standard 12 teamer there is still plenty of 3B to go around. From what I’ve seen in mocks people hear 3B is shallow this year and start reaching for them. I’ll treat it like SS and if I miss out on the first 8 3B that I like I’ll wait a long time to take one. I’m fine with Chipper, Beltre or Gordan.
For the record, Pogo took Larry in the 14th.
That’s not bad at all – but I’d pick up another 3B for the bench just in case, which means it’s more of a roto pick than an h2h one.
I took Gordon in the 18th as insurance.
Mr Freese baby!
Book it
Yah, of course I agree on that one. Freese was the subject of my Deep League Value piece, though, so I figured he didn’t need more words.
So a 12 team league David Wright is averaging out as the 3rd pick in the 2nd round? Thats nice right there. Give me the 1st or 2nd pick overall and I end up with either Pujols/Wright or Hanley/Wright? Sign me up for that all day…
that would only work if his ADP was in the last third of the 2nd round…
David Wright’s numbers last year are atrocious for that ADP.
Still had 27 steals and a 307 avg.
Cant be that surprising if the power returns, hes done it before.
60+ spots ahead of Figgins?
There are reasons to be optimistic about Ryan Zimmerman, but using his ISO from 230 minor league at-bats in 05 as a comparison point is not a strong predictor.
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Welcome to FanGraphs! Thank you for your (muted) praise.
the minor league ISO on it’s own wouldn’t be a strong predictor, but he did happen to have a great year this past year as well… I’m buying on Ryan Zimmerman as well.
is 3B so thing that Ryan Zimms is a better keeper around the 5th round over a power hitting first basemen like say Votto or AGon
*thin
In my opinion, yes. Put it this way, would you rather have Zimm and someone like Berkman, or Votto and someone like Beltre? I know which pair I prefer.
yeah, i agree. I’ll keep Zimmerman, who is only 25, and grab Berkman if you can, or even Billy Butler or Cuddyer… after Zimmerman, the drop-off is colossal.
of course, Votto and Beckham, should you be able to land him, wouldn’t be half bad… i’d still go with Zimmerman though.