ADPuzzles: Stephen Strasburg
160
That is by far the most important number related to Stephen Strasburg’s 2012 season. Not 62, his current ADP according to Mock Draft Central, with a range of 35-90 in mixed drafts. Not 9.3, his K/9 according to ZiPS, which is actually on the lower end of most projections that have been published so far. Not 5, the number of both the number of starts he made during the fantasy playoffs last year or his projected WAR according to the fan projections. 160, or the number of innings the Nationals are believed to have capped Strasburg at for the 2012 season before taking the leash off in 2013.
It is the same cap the Nats placed on Jordan Zimmermann in his first full season back from the same Tommy John surgery that cost Strasburg almost all of the 2011 season, and lest anyone think that the Nats are all talk, Zimmermann threw 161.1 innings and was promptly handed a warm-up jacket and a spot on the bench for the rest of the season.
Assuming Strasburg duplicates something resembling Zimmermann’s 6ish innings per start, his 160 innings will be up at the end of August, which means potential owners will have him for the vast majority of the season, but will lose him just in time for most playoffs to start. Having Strasburg will almost certainly enhance a team’s chances of making the playoffs — fantasy playoffs or the actual major league playoffs — but being left without a top starter when the money is actually on the line is a rather unappealing proposition, and that’s where this ADPuzzle comes from.
The Strasburg conundrum is more or less limited to redraft players. Keeper players will have already kept Strasburg and will continue to do so in all but the oddest of circumstances. Losing him for the playoffs is a rough bounce, but when he’s back at full capacity in 2013, the payoff will be well worth the wait. If you’re trying to win this year, I do think it would be worth drafting another SP1 just so that you’re not left high and dry come the end of the season.
Before getting into the nitty-gritty of his value, it should be noted that I love Strasburg. His starts are appointment television as far as I’m concerned, and when the cap is off in 2013, he’ll be one of the few pitchers who might get me to break my rule of always waiting on pitching. The principle in play here is Opportunity Cost: What are you giving up to celebrate Strasmas once or twice a week until he turns into a pumpkin?
I see very few scenarios where I’m willing to draft Strasburg anywhere close to his top range in the 30s. For most drafts, that means grabbing him in the 3rd or 4th round, ahead of players like Jered Weaver and Dan Haren, who may be able to match Strasburg’s production when he’s playing, then give owners an extra month of work. Even if no one is making an overly aggressive play for Strasburg, there’s still a substantial set of talent around him in most draft queues. Looking only at pitchers, drafting Strasburg at his current ADP means missing out most notably on Madison Bumgarner, but could also mean passing up on his teammate Matt Cain, who is going in the same range as Strasburg. Even if Cain and Bumgarner are both gone, the 60-80 range where Strasburg typically lands is thick with arms: Ian Kennedy, Mat Latos, Daniel Hudson, and C.J. Wilson are all available with ADPs in that neighborhood. On talent alone, Strasburg is still better than those four, but is he better than those four when they have an extra month to amass strikeouts and wins? I just don’t think so, though I’m sure there are those who would be willing to disagree.
There is one contingency that hasn’t really been addressed and that’s what the Nats would do with Strasburg if they were in a playoff chase when he hits his innings cap. As much as I like the Nats this year, I think they’re still a year away from really challenging for a wild card spot. But if the Commissioner’s Office has their way and there are extra wild cards this year, who’s to say the Nats wouldn’t be in a position to challenge for that spot. Is the first playoff birth since the franchise was reborn a good enough reason to toss aside the cap?
I’m not familiar with Mike Rizzo’s thinking enough to say for sure, but given that they’re worried enough about Strasburg’s elbow to cap his innings in the first place, my instinct is to say no. Still, that potential changes his profile ever so slightly, since it opens up the possibility — no matter how slight — that Strasburg could be an asset in the fantasy playoffs.
In all the mocks I’ve done so far, waiting on pitching has served me well, and with Strasburg’s ADP already near the top of where I’d be comfortable taking him, I’ve moved away from targeting him in drafts. I’ll hate having to go against him in head-to-head, but with the talent available in the same range, it’s not worth it to me to have to try and replace him for the last 3-4 weeks of the season when I need him the most.
10
If the sum of the best pitches equals the best pitcher, then Strasburg is the best pitcher in baseball right now. Ahead of Halladay, Kershaw, Verlander, etc. To throw him in the class of Ian Kennedy, Daniel Hudson and C.J. Wilson on the basis of (potentially) 40 less IP is… interesting.
Ill add that Strasburg now has 92 innings of pre-peak performance at 1.87 FIP (and fully supported by similar minor league and college dominance). There seems to be a perception with Stras that having TJ surgery once equals “injury prone”, and this label is unique to him (as opposed to the other post TJ pitchers). I guess some people just need to see a big IP number until they believe the empirical evidence in front of them.
That’s not at all what the article is saying though. It’s not saying he’s injury prone, it’s saying he’s innings capped. In 2013 when he’s not innings capped, all bets are off.
The article isn’t about who is the best pitcher. It’s about fantasy value. Strasburg may provide elite value comparable with Halladay, Lee, or Kershaw, but unlike those pitchers he has an innings cap. That means that although he will likely provide elite production it will be over a shorter period of time/innings and will be absent during the all important late weeks of the regular season, when fantasy baseball playoffs happen.
Because of that you need to compare him to pitchers who won’t pitch to the same elite numbers, but who will do it over a longer period of time like Cain, Kennedy, Hudson, Wilson, and Bumgarner.
There’s a similar situation going on with Ryan Braun, where he’ll miss a significant portion of games and his ADP is impacted. However in his case he’ll miss the first part of the season rather than fantasy playoff time.
In either case you need to look at the player in question Stras/Braun and the replacement player you will use in their spot during the time they won’t play. Compare that combined production, and cost in terms of draft picks, the need to trade, etc, to what a “lesser” talent will give you over a full season.
That’s how a pitcher with less talent or worse stuff can be a better fantasy player than Strasburg in 2012.
What % of leagues are playoffs leagues? I would venture the numbers pretty low, I think Roto is much more common than H2H for baseball (I could be wrong about this though).
That 62 ADP relies on all leagues, not just H2H playoff leagues.
Anyway, I think the ADP is worth it. With how solid fantasy replacement level is at pitcher (especially if you can pick the best matchups off the waiver wire each week), it’s safe to venture that you can put up around a 4.00 ERA or better in those 40 IP you need to make up. (160*2.5+40*4)/200=2.8.
Lets say 2.5 isn’t realistic, that he pitches a 3.00 ERA and has 9 K/9 and your replacement is 6 K/9 (really conservative estimates he should soundly beat IMO), you’re still looking at a composite performance of 3.2 ERA and 188 Ks. Even in that really conservative Stras Estimate (IMO a badly conservative one), you still have a player in Matt Cain’s neighborhood.
Let me add that the quality of replacement player should be a major component of your valuation for Strasburg in a roto league. He’s worth more in a 12 team mixed league than he is in a 14 team NL only league where you’re replacement guy will be the #4 starter on the Pirates. That needs to be weighed carefully when comparing your composite Stras+Scrubs to the likes of Cain, Bumgarner, Wilson, etc…
H2H leagues can’t touch him. He’ll be shut down too early to have a playoff impact.
hah. first attempt at using block quotes. strike one.
What fraction of FBB leagues use a playoff format? For those who don’t it really doesn’t matter where he pitches his innings in the season. So 160 innings of Stras + 40 innings of replacement should determine his value.
what leagues are these? cbs or espn or yahoo??? nfbc?
Also important to consider when looking at 2012 value that the innings cap will limit his chances for wins which is key for many leagues. Nats will try to stretch out those 160 innings and we may see a lot of 5.2 to 6.1 inning starts in which Lidge or Stammen will be given a chance to blow the lead before bridging to Clippard and Storen.
It seems that this approach is undervaluing Strasburg. First, we have to recognize that once Stras is shut down his owner can pick up a replacement from the waiver wire. Let’s say that replacement is good for 48 IP at 6 K/9 and a 4.50 ERA. Add that to Strasburg’s FAN projections and we wind up with 209 IP, 211 K, and a 3.24 ERA. Easily in Weaver/Haren territory.
The second thing to note is that you have some “optionality” with Strasburg (as with any player). When his usefulness runs out, you can evaluate your team and choose the right replacement option. If you’re in a keeper league, maybe you trade him for the help you need to win the playoffs. If you’re in a Roto league, maybe you’re all set in K and ERA, so you focus on SV. I agree H2H is the toughest, but relying on any pitcher to carry you through the playoffs with September starts is a risky strategy to begin with.
Unless IP is a scoring stat, IP limits don’t matter. Counting stats do. Strasburg should, in 160 IP, have xER, xWHIP, Ks and Ws that rival other pitchers drafted around 62. Indeed, in leagues with IP limits, K/IP is more imporant than Ks.
I took Strasburg’s projected numbers (2.80 ERA, 1.05 WHIP) and added 25% of A.J. Burnett’s projected numbers (4.43 ERA, 1.44 WHIP). My resulting hybrid pitcher (15 wins, 220 K, 3.02 ERA, 1.15 WHIP) would rank around #25 overall for the season, compared to other player projections.