Comments on: All Systems Votto

By: Garrett

Garrett — Wed, 30 Dec 2009 15:59:32 +0000

I agree. I love Votto, but Granderson’s value in fantasy in Yankee Stadium and that lineup is incredible.

By: Neil

Neil — Tue, 29 Dec 2009 20:56:41 +0000

25 for Votto seems way high. In 2008 he had 150 games, a better batted ball profile and better contact numbers (with a lower K%), but he still didn’t crack 84 RBI or 70 runs. Even if he goes .300, 26, 90, 100, 2 – is that worthy of late second round/early third round? I would maybe vote “yes” if it’s a guy that does it forever (like Carlos Lee), but I don’t want to use my #2 pick on a guy that has no speed and hasn’t craked 90-90 yet. It’s hard for a guy with no speed to generate top 25 value. That being said, I would love Votto in or around round 5 or 6.

By: Dan Budreika

Dan Budreika — Tue, 29 Dec 2009 19:54:50 +0000

I think this theory is certainly plausible. This gets more interesting when we consider this excellent study by Brian Cartwright before the start of the 2009 season: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/what-i-hate-about-line-drives/

I urge you to read that link where Cartwright talks about scorer’s bias and line drives. His study concludes that from 2003 to 2008 the Great American Ballpark had the THIRD HIGHEST line drive rate. So it was the third likeliest park to code a batted ball a line drive.

Glenn Sample was the official scorer for 29 seasons in Cincinnati and passed away in November of 2008: http://mlb.mlb.com/news/press_releases/press_release.jsp?ymd=20081121&content_id=3688644&vkey=pr_cin&fext=.jsp&c_id=cin

Someone else was scoring games last year in Cinci and they probably didn’t determine what and wasn’t a line drive in a similar manner to Sample. They could have on the opposite side of the spectrum when compared to Sample.

Bruce’s 13% line drive mark is just baffling. He had a tough year but the guys always had a much consistently higher LD rate dating back to his time in the minors.

Another interesting note: Scott Rolen finished 2009 with an overall 22.6% line drive percentage. And in 137 at-bats in Cinci after the trade from Toronto he had a 15.8% line drive rate.

It’s a small sample size…but the numbers are begging to suggest that perhaps Rolen saw some scorer’s bias. It doesn’t appear that the new scorer in Cinci is a big line drive fan and he certainly doesn’t score a game like Sample. This is definitely something to consider going forward.

By: Dan Budreika

Dan Budreika — Tue, 29 Dec 2009 19:22:59 +0000

That’s pretty tough. You can make good arguments either way especially when you consider Granderson’s massive troubles versus lefties. But he’s going to enjoy the cozy hitting environment in NY and the short porch in right field.

I’d lean towards Granderson due to his speed and he’s going to hit near 30 bombs (quite close to Votto’s projected total) along with 20+ stolen bases. Votto hasn’t run much at the big league level. Grandy should also have ample RBI opportunities even if he hits towards the beginning of line up. The Yankees have threats 1-9 in their line up. But remember to sit Granderson against lefties and if that’s a big issue for you and the way your team is constructed you can go with Votto and it’s certainly defensible.

By: Charlie Saponara

Charlie Saponara — Tue, 29 Dec 2009 17:45:44 +0000

ADP of 25 on Mock Draft Central right now.

I love Votto’s potential, but that ADP puts him above some more established hitters like A-Gonz, Ryan Zimmerman, Justin Morneau.

Interestingly enough Kendry Morales, who has now done what we hope Votto can do, has a ADP of 56.

By: John

John — Tue, 29 Dec 2009 16:59:38 +0000

Sorry, a personal fantasy question: In a 10×10 roto league (lots of counting stats, including negatives for Ks, GIDPs, etc), would you keep Granderson (lefty in Yankee Stadium?) or Votto?

Thanks.

By: Chuck

Chuck — Tue, 29 Dec 2009 15:12:26 +0000

It is an interesting theory that the scorekeepers’ bias held down Votto’s LD%, especially since Jay Bruce had an extremely low rate. Perhaps it is a Cincinnati thing? Votto would be fantastic in rounds 6-8 however the mock drafts I have seen peg him in the 3-4 range.

By: Quintero

Quintero — Tue, 29 Dec 2009 14:17:18 +0000

Nice read, much appreciated. According to firstinning.com, in ’09, 25% of Votto’s batted balls went thru 2nd&3rd as GB, registering 0.571 batting average among them.(17%GB went thru 1st&2nd, .200BA)

(in ’08, 30.5%GB went thru 1st&2nd, .198BA and only 13.6%GB went thru 2nd&3rd .321BA)

Maybe these addition info shows that: A) if teams are willing to adjust their defense against Votto, things might change, or B) teams already shifted their defense according to the ’08 splits but paid for Votto’s ability to spraying it around all fields. No matter what, theoretically no team would shift their defense against him now if they are paying attention to these splits, therefore if Votto can maintain hitting the ball hard and spraying it around, his high BABIP should continue, until other teams figure him out which is unlikely to happen suddenly because there is no major hole in his peripheral stats.