American League Outfielder Rankings: Second Half
The All-Star break is as good a time as any to update our American League Outfielder Rankings. (Note: That means outfielders who play only in the AL, so please don’t flood the comments with oblivious flabbergastery over the complete and utter disrespect for not including Jay Bruce. For that, go here.) Given the timing, let’s go ahead and call this our second-half ranks. While performances to date do matter, the intent here is to, as Doc Brown might say: “Get a clear perception of humanity (i.e., fantasy performance). Where we’ve been (April, May, June), where we’re going (July, August, September), the pitfalls (Carl Crawford), the possibilities (Curtis Granderson), the perils (Shin-Soo Choo) and the promise (Mike Trout). Perhaps even an answer to that universal question: Where is [insert name here] ranked?”
If you’re so inclined, here is the previous version of these rankings.
TIER 1
Jose Bautista
After slumping a bit in June (.258 BA, .835 OPS, 4 HRs), Bautista finished the first half of the season by hitting .369 with 10 homers, 19 RBIs and 18 runs in the final 18 games prior to the break. Unquestionably in a class by himself. Except when it come to home run derbies.
TIER 2
Curtis Granderson
Jacoby Ellsbury
Josh Hamilton
Carlos Quentin
Nelson Cruz
Carl Crawford
This tier stays mostly unchanged, with each of these players putting up — or in the still-injured Crawford’s case, at least being capable of putting up — elite numbers in either power or speed. The return to health and dominance (at least on a per-game basis) of Hamilton has been a welcome development for his owners. Despite his worst-player-in-the-world tendencies during day games (.391 OPS!), Hamilton still smashed 10 HRs and tallied 36 RBIs since June 1. … His outfield mate, Cruz, also an injury recoverer this year, has been similarly productive since that same date (10 HRs, 31 RBIs), and with a subpar-for-him .264 BABIP, he .243 BA could rise a bit, too.
TIER 3
Ben Zobrist
Adam Jones
Alex Gordon
B.J. Upton
Nick Swisher
Michael Cuddyer
Brennan Boesch
Matt Joyce
Torii Hunter
Zobrist falls back one tier, but he’s still incredibly valuable with his unique 2B/OF eligibility and Top 10 runs scored total (59) … Ditto for Joyce dropping a level. The inflated BABIPs from April (.404) and May (.426) finally came back to Earth (.211 in June and .105 in July), and so did his fantasy production. A good OF3 going forward, for sure. But I don’t want him as my No. 2 OF if I can help it. … Boesch has made me a believer. He’s shown improvements from last season overall, and while some will fear another second-half disaster, I don’t think it happens. He’s become the Tigers best outfielder. By a lot.
TIER 4
Alex Rios
Ichiro Suzuki
Vernon Wells
Josh Willingham
Grady Sizemore
Melky Cabrera
Jeff Francoeur
Brett Gardner
Rajai Davis
Bobby Abreu
Nick Markakis
Jason Kubel
Johnny Damon
Michael Brantley
Coco Crisp
It’s now-or-never for Rios. Dude’s dead-last among qualified AL outfielders in OPS (.572), but he also owns the fourth-lowest BABIP (.221) in all of baseball. So he could start getting lucky soon. Of course, his June BABIP was a respectable .279, and his OPS for the month climbed to all of .685. And yet his K rate for the year is at a career-low 9.9%, so don’t some of the balls he’s putting into play — and there are a lot of them — have to start dropping? I’m still holding out hope that he can put together a second half in which he approaches double digits in homers and steals. With a player as divisive as Rios, you’re either with me or against me. And I can’t fault you if you’re in the latter group. … Gardner and Davis have been lumped together in these rankings for much of the year. They’ve both managed to put up solid stats in the primary category owners targeted them for, while simultaneously frustrating those same owners with streaky (and sometimes rather poor) play overall. But if you’re hurting for SBs for the rest of the season, I could see either of them leading baseball in that stat. … Welcome back to semi-relevance, Mr. Markakis! After advising owners that he could be cut a little more than two months ago, he’s hit .350 since June 1. Of course, that’s come with just 3 HRs, 19 RBIs and 4 SBs, so it’s not like he was doing much else. I don’t think there’s any second-half surge coming here, but if you need batting average help, his overall line (.292/.339/.379) is still low enough that you could buy cheap. But I stand by my early-season advice.
TIER 5
Ryan Raburn
Eric Thames
Juan Pierre
Denard Span
Luke Scott
Austin Jackson
Ben Revere
Corey Patterson
Peter Bourjos
Look, Raburn has been atrocious this year. The average is .213. The K rate is 31%. And the .281 BABIP doesn’t suggest he’s due for any sort of improvement due to regression to his mean. But he’s got the Zobrist eligibility factor (2B/OF), and here are his second-half stats the past two seasons: .310 BA, .933 OPS and 10 HRs in 2009; and .315, .900 and 13 last year. If you buy into that sort of thing, he can be had for a song. Even one like “We Built This City.” … With the recent trade of Juan Rivera (more below) and the reconversion to third base of Bautista, Thames has a clear path to PT. He’s striking out a bit too much (26%), but the pop is there with 12 extra-base hits in just 104 ABs. There’s solid upside here for a guy who wasn’t a big-time prospect and didn’t get much pub — unless you’ve been following along at home.
TIER 6
Travis Snider
Sean Rodriguez
Andy Dirks
Josh Reddick
Mike Trout
Brent Lillibridge
J.D. Drew
David Murphy
Delmon Young
Shin-Soo Choo
Franklin Gutierrez
Endy Chavez
Nolan Reimold
David DeJesus
Ryan Sweeney
Sam Fuld
Magglio Ordonez
Carlos Peguero
Justin Ruggiano
Conor Jackson
Brandon Guyer
Felix Pie
Casper Wells
Travis Buck
Andruw Jones
Julio Borbon
Greg Halman
The top five here stand out for their mix of potential and production. Snider, Rodriguez, Dirks and Reddick all have openings to get near-everyday run, which makes them intriguing and worth a gamble as starters in AL-only leagues. (Caution: Reddick could lose time if the Red Sox decide to use the trade deadline to mend what has been a terrible outfield this year, aside from Ellsbury.) … As for Trout, well, I would like to think he actually has a chance to wrest the starting CF job from Bourjos — let’s face it, Bourjy wasn’t exactly tearing it up with the stick, and Trout is nearly as good on D — but I don’t think he’s close to ready. Seems like a wasted add in re-draft leagues. … Poor Choo. The broken finger pretty much kills any chance he had of bouncing back in the second half. Just not his year. In keeper leagues, though, he makes an attractive target for team’s building for 2012.
BONUS TIER
Adam Lind
Mark Trumbo
Howie Kendrick
Vladimir Guerrero
Mitch Moreland
Hideki Matsui
Jack Cust
The only two in this portion who would be north of Tier 4 are Lind and Trumbo, who has managed 6 games in the outfield. In leagues with a 1- or 5-game minimum, there’s a nice 17-homer bat that qualifies at OF now. He really is having an underrated rookie season. I mean, heck, is anyone talking about him for AL ROY? (Even if Michael Pineda has that thing sewn up.)
DROPPED OUT
Juan Rivera
Hey, getting traded to the National League will do that.
PROSPECTS
Desmond Jennings
Leonys Martin
Mike Carp
Michael Taylor
Chris Carter
Lorenzo Cain
Jennings’ never-ending stay in the minors will get a little bit longer with news of his fractured finger. Never a bastion of health, this likely keeps Jennings out of the majors until August. … On the flip side, with apologies to Endy Chavez, there is somewhat of an opening in center for the Rangers, and Martin — a Cuban defector who signed a 5-year deal just two months ago — was recently got promoted to Triple-A. Just sayin’.
10
I love Carl Crawford in real life, but I think his fantasy value will be suppressed this year and beyond by hitting 6/7 in that Sox lineup, behind a bunch of slow guys who get on base a lot. We just aren’t going to see him get the kind of base-stealing opportunities that Ellsbury and Pedroia get at the top of the order unless Crawford supplants one of them, and that isn’t going to happen barring injury (if I know anything about Tito’s managerial style). And if Crawford only steals 10 bases or so in the second half, his other numbers aren’t going to be enough to make him elite an elite fantasy player.
Having said that, I think you have him ranked about right. But I can imagine some people below him outperforming him from here on out more easily than I can see Crawford outperforming those above him (barring injury).
He won’t be batting 6/7 forever.
Why not? The Red Sox have won a lot of games with Ellsbury-Pedroia-Gonzalez at the top, and Francona isn’t going to mess with a productive lineup. He’s no Joe Maddon!
i have been scared away from crawford because he keeps making comments about how he doesnt want to be that guy who steals a lot of bases, he doesnt want to be a leadoff guy, he wants to be than a speed guy… because yes he has medium (15HR) power (with about the same number of triples FWIW) and he can put up a good batting average (cant take a walk though…)… but his SB is where he was truly elite. and if he doesnt want to do that anymore, whether because he wants to be thought of as more of a complete hitter or, much much worse, if his legs are slowing down/ getting hurt too much, that could tank his value.
I know everybody wants to hate on the guy, but why the drop for Cabrera, given that he just keeps getting better? He should rank way ahead of Frenchy, who, as expected, just keeps getting worse.
I actually didn’t drop Melky. In fact, he moved up one spot from No. 7 to No. 6 in Tier 4 — from behind Frenchy to ahead!
I saw the red arrow pointing down and assumed that down actually meant…well, down.
The down arrow is next to Sizemore, not Melky.
Let me be the first to ask… Where’s Justin Upton? And Matt Kemp? What about Greg Vaughn? You just forgot Derek Jeter, Ken Griffey Jr., and Dennis Eckersley? Slight oversight there. And I can’t believe you forgot Ron Harper and Jud Beuchler. Natrone Means didn’t even make the list? What is this?
Going forward, I like Snider to be up in Tier 5, if not 4 (but probably 5). Quentin has been abysmal lately, but I do like him to pick it back up soon.
Also, what was with Bautista at the derby? The longest of his 4 HRs was shorter than the shortest of Rickie Weeks’ three… I figured he’d win, possibly in a blowout, and then he hits only 4…
I’m so ashamed of owning him nowhere. And even after targeting Ellsbury and Granderson, I own them nowhere as well. At least I got Cuddyer.
I had a funny feeling Bautista wouldn’t do well in the derby. He strikes me as the kind of hitter whose power better translates in game play than an exhibition competition.
FWIW, I picked Fielder and Cano as my derby guys prior to the event. So I feel extra-smart, of course.
http://twitter.com/#!/JayCat11/status/90495387630178305
Hello? No Oscar Charleston? What kind of list is this?
I wouldn’t be surprised if Snider’s value ROS fits him with the tier 3 group… at minimum he’ll give an average/OBP in line with guys like Upton, Swisher and Hunter and equal power numbers. If he continues the improvement he has displayed with his swing adjustment those numbers could all be better, he is driving the ball effortlessly since coming back and playing time will not be an issue.
J Upton? Kemp? How about reading the title? AMERICAN LEAGUE outfielder rankings.
And the jokes goes right over rbt’s head :)
So I’m slow today…what can I say? :)
It’s okay, rbt. I appreciate your helping police the comments! I made it extra-clear in the opener of this post that it was AL only b/c every update kept bringing a handful of comments about where so-and-so NL OF was. And so of course, that brought out all the clever posts doing just that! I chuckled, though. So well done.
How about my boys Lonnie Smith, Willie Wilson, Dane Iorg and Daryl Motley?
out of curiousity, why so bearish on delmon?
1) He’s not that good. 2) He’s coming off an injury. 3) I don’t see him turning it around. 4) He doesn’t bring any above-average category to the table.
To me, he’s only startable in deep AL-only leagues as an OF3/4.
Great Scott!
What tier would you put Travis Hafner in?
None. He’s not OF-eligible. Anywhere.
Of course, unless fangraphs adds “DH/Util” to its rankings series, Hafner and Ortiz are the invisible men of fantasy baseball. Not that adding them to arbitrary positional rankings is the solution, of course.
Carlos Quentin over Nelson Cruz?? Please explain!
I think it’s pretty close. They’re both injury-prone power bats that play in great hitter’s parks and bring little else to the table (Cruz doesn’t really run anymore). If you like Cruz over Quentin, I can see the argument. I put them back-to-back, so it’s not like Quentin was in a different tier or anything.
I dunno, Cruz had 17 SB last year and already has 5 this year. Quentin has 6 SB over the past three years combined.
If you assume they are equal in other categories, the fact is that Quentin will steal 2-3 bags a year tops, whereas Cruz is probably still an 8-10 SB guy. That gap is pretty significant, it could be 1-2 points in the standings in a tight race, and there isn’t another category in which Quentin outclasses Cruz to make up for it.
Plus, you have to project Cruz to hit for a slightly better AVG going forward (higher career AVG, better ROS ZIPS projection for AVG). I agree they are close, but I can’t see any argument why Quentin would be ranked higher.
It’s really splitting hairs here. And I don’t think there’s a “right” or “wrong.” But if I’m making the argument for Quention over Cruz: I just prefer the guy who walks more, strikes out less and doesn’t have huge platoon splits. The general point, though, is that either of the two could take off and be a top 3-5 AL OF from here on out; or just as easily fall apart due to injury.
I wouldn’t trade my Quentin for your Cruz, fearing that Quentin is bound to fall off and Cruz is ready to rocket. And some goes the other way. But if you liked my Cruz way more than Quentin in our theoretical league, I would be fine making a deal with them involved where I get something else coming back to make you pay up for Cruz. And I’d be perfectly happy with Carlos.
What is the collective wisdom on having an OF from the same team? In addition to Crawford, McCutchen, Heyward, and Maybin, I’ve got Hunter, Abreu, and Bourjos and end up having to start the Angels OFers together, regularly because of injuries to Crawford and/or Heyward. Is this along the lines of the “win big or lose big” idea? What are peoples’ thoughts on this?
It doesn’t really both me too much, but I don’t think the Angels OF is one I would be looking to start all three guys on a regular basis. It’s still about the talent more than the team. If you own three OFs on a team that gets no-hit, then yes, that blows. But it will be balanced out enough through the course of the season (by 10-run explosions, etc.) that having one team’s entire OF isn’t really a detriment or an advantage.
I actually think the biggest issue with it is that they will all have the same off days. And now that offense is as precious as it is, I think you need to have players in your lineup every day (of course, obeying any games maximum setting). Having two or three OFs from one team could hamstring an owner in some cases. And missing any chance to put in a player who is playing that day can be a serious overlook if it keeps adding up. There is extra value in players I like to call “accruers,” by that I mean, players who are durable, play every day and can put up a steal or homer, even if it means their rate stats aren’t so hot. This goes a long way toward explaining why Francoeur has become a startable OF in AL-only leagues…
“both” should be “bother.” Duh.
Kendrick couldn’t be above Tier 4? Although his BABIP is higher than in some years past, he always projected to be a .300 type hitter in the league. Also while I don’t feel his power levels are totally sustainable, he has run more frequently this year, and could be capable of a 20 Sb type season. A potential line of .300, 80 R, 50 RBI, 12 HR, and 18 SB has low Tier 3 potential to me.
Kendrick’s season stats are seriously pumped up by a never-before-or-since-seen April when he hit 75% of his HRs and notched 50% of his walks for the season.
Since May 1: .301 with 2 HR, 24 runs, 17 RBIs and 8 SB.
Nice numbers for a guy with eligibility at 3 positions, but I would easily take all the guys in Tier 3 over Howie.
Would you drop Carlos Lee or Bobby Abreu for Travis Snider in a shallow mixed league (Michael Brantley on the waiver wire)?
I could see dumping either of ‘em in shallow league, say 10 or 12 teams. I’d probably lose Abreu first, since he stands out less at this point from what he brings to the table.
If you want power, then it makes sense. Abreu maybe hits 5-8 homers if he gets lucky. Snider should do that more easily, as long as he gets regular PT.
That seems pretty low on Gardner.
Seriously. How do you put just “lump” Gardner in with Davis….
.290/.370/.420 (3.8 WAR)
.235/.263/.345 (-0.2 WAR)!
seriously? Gardner has been one of the best outfielders in all of baseball the last year and a half, and while I know he doesn’t put up gaudy fantasy stats….just read the triple slash line and tell me I’m wrong about his placement….
The trickiest part of rankings is where to slot in the specialist types. The context matters, and in this case, I’m figuring that an owner with no need for SBs would clearly realize that Davis should be dropped a tier b/c of his peripherals. But then, Gardner would also have less value b/c of his lack of power numbers. You could argue that Gardner could be maybe 3-5 slots higher b/c his peripherals are solid and his SBs are elite. But perhaps the more pertinent point is that Davis should be 8-10 spots lower if you’re an owner who doesn’t need SBs, since he’s not likely to offer much help elsewhere. But I see their SB value as roughly the same going forward, and if Gardner hits .290 while Davis hits .250 the rest of the way, there’s not a huge separation. Unless the Yankees actually do the smart thing and make Gardy the leadoff hitter.
Also, you noted their respective WARs, which while drastically different, doesn’t really help b/c it’s not really a fantasy category (I pointed this out in today’s column, coincidentally enough). Still, it can be a useful gauge. Except in Gardner’s case, his WAR is so high because he’s solid offensively (which matters in fantasy), but he gets brownie points for being a stud defender (which doesn’t).
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