Appreciating and Projecting Ubaldo Jimenez
Last year the baseball world was going crazy over Zack Greinke and deservedly so. After his start on May 26th, here was his fantasy line:
8 W, 0.84 ERA, 81 Ks, 0.88 WHIP
Flash forward to 2009 and check out Ubaldo Jimenez through the same time span:
9 W, 0.88 ERA, 61 Ks, 0.925 WHIP
Greinke was a shade better but nevertheless we as baseball fans should be more wowed by Jimenez than we have been. Here on FanGraphs, we have had just one article between the fantasy side and the mainland on Jimenez, and that was a piece by R.J. Anderson that talked about four pitchers with ERAs under 1.00 in April. So it is like ΒΌ of a story on Jimenez.
Jimenez has been a fantastic fantasy pitcher so far in 2010. CBS Sports ranks him as the top fantasy player overall, as does Last Player Picked and the RotoTimes Player Rater.
My favorite Jimenez stat is his ERA+, which currently stands at 515. Of course with an ERA that low, you would imagine that his FIP and xFIP would tell a different story. While his ERA is 0.88 his FIP is 2.71 and his xFIP is 3.58, which still ranks 16th among qualified pitchers.
RoS ZiPS does not anticipate Jimenez coming anywhere close to his current pace. It projects an 11-9 record with a 3.84 ERA going forward. Those numbers seem pessimistic to me but last year Greinke went 8-7 with a 2.80 ERA and 161 Ks from May 27th through the end of the season.
My WAG on Jimenez for the rest of the season is:
13 Wins
2.50 ERA
125 Ks
1.200 WHIP
In the comments section, leave your projections for Jimenez from now until the end of the year. In the offseason, I will do a follow-up piece and acknowledge the person who made the best fantasy projection for Jimenez before his May 31st start.
18
12 wins
2.66 ERA
140 Ks
1.18 WHIP
5 wins
3.00 ERA
51 Ks
1.2 WHIP
12 Wins
2.70 ERA
130 Ks
1.255 WHIP
15 wins
1.75 ERA
150Ks
1.08 WHIP
8 W
3.17 ERA
102 K
1.23 WHIP
14 wins,
3.05 (RoS) ERA
140K
1.4 WHIP
He’ll start walking more, but he’ll also get consistent run support leading to continued wins.
14 wins,
3.05 (RoS) ERA
140K
1.4 WHIP
He’ll start walking more, but it’s the Rockies, not the Royals, so he’ll keep getting run support and winning games.
15 Wins
2.85 ERA
120 Ks
1.22 Whip
i’ll go under:
12 w
1.97 era
129 k
1.09 whip
A little off Ubaldo; Greinke’s implosion this year… due to his change in pitch use? His Slider was his bread and butter pitch last year is being used 4% (though I thought it was 6% earlier this year) less than last year, yet clearly had the most weight /100 pitches. I’m sure he knows it too, so I’m wondering why the sudden change in favor of his change up, his worst pitch last year.
Mixing it up is good and all, but he’s throwing his curve less effectively and using his slider less. Though I dont have the data to look at which pitches got the most swinging strikes last year.
I’m curious why Greinke’s xFIP is a whole run higher this season. His K/BB is almost exactly the same, and his groundball rate is only slightly down from 40 to 38%. Does that really make a whole run of difference?
His K/9 is down, by 2.21, which would result in a higher FIP and xFIP since Ks offset BB and FB
Oh and Jimenez’s LOB rate is unsustainably high (91.7%?! career 73.3) while his HR/FB% (1.8, career 7.5), so I’ll go with
10 W
3.00 ERA
1.10 WHIP
125 K
4 W
4.20 ERA
1.33 WHIP
60 K
I don’t think he stays healthy.
9 wins
3.30 ERA
1.25 WHIP
124 K
14 Wins
2.72 ERA
122 Ks
1.16 WHIP
10Wins
2.96 ERA
120K
1.25 WHIP
7 wins
3.52 ERA
127K
1.29 WHIP
11 wins
2.92 ERA
141 K
1.21 WHIP
11 wins
3.15 ERA
125 K
1.18 WHIP
15 wins
2.25 ERA
144 K
1.13 WHIP
I think UJ keeps getting better. I think he’s the next Tom Seaver.
Utter domination. Gibson. Seaver.
10-7
2.62 ERA
154 K
1.22 WHIP
13 Wins
2.14 ERA
128 K
1.23 WHIP
7 wins
4.00 era
100ks
1.30 whip
11 Wins
3.78 ERA
138 K
1.24 WHIP
17 Wins
1.00 ERA
140 K
1.00 WHIP
16 Wins
1.90 ERA
144 K’s
1.19 WHIP
10 Wins
130 Ks
3.50 ERA
1.28 WHIP
$1.00!
Crap. Wrong game.
8 Wins
120 Ks
3.10 ERA
1.18 WHIP
Cy Young Award…
‘Nuff said
6 wins
4.62 era
55K
GETS HURT
154 IP
62 ER or 3.62 ERA
198 (H+BB)
1.29 WHIP
138 K
9 Wins
Total Numbers
18 Wins
2.76 ERA
1.17 WHIP
199 K
lol fangraphs