Aramis Ramirez Replacement Brigade
An already-thin position took a hit this week with Aramis Ramirez hitting the DL with a separated shoulder. With the prognosis leaving him out for at least a month, owners are hitting the waiver wire in search of some short-term Maalox.
Let’s take a look at some of the possible short-term patches. Not all of them will soothe equally.
Adrian Beltre – Don’t think that Beltre is done just because it seems like he’s been around forever. You may be surprised to learn that he is only 30 years old. Possibly because of an oscillating line drive percentage (19% career, 15% currently), Beltre doesn’t own a great career BABIP (.291). That said, he’s current .260 number is unsustainable, and even if he ‘only’ pushes that number up to last year’s .279 level, the average will climb shortly. Perhaps it would help him center the ball if he quit swinging at more than 40% of balls outside the strike zone. Get that back to regular 30% levels and the line drive rate, BABIP, and average should all follow.
Mike Fontenot – How about A-Ram’s real-life replacement? Newly-acquired Ryan Freel and Fontenot will split up the at-bats at the hot corner for the Cubs, and both are decent players. While Freel is more of a speedy player, Fontenot actually has some nice pop. He’s hitting over 40% fly balls, and his double-digit HR/FB percentage (15.6%) looks sustainable when seen against last year’s totals. There are some black marks against the diminutive (5’ 8”, 170 lbs) infielder, however. His 10% line drive rate means that his .250 BABIP won’t necessarily move on it’s own accord. Since most of his contact, walk and strikeout percentages have been steady, it’s just a difficulty making solid contact that’s keeping Fontenot from being the best fantasy and real-life replacement.
Casey Blake – While Beltre is younger than most may think, Blake is older than most would guess. At 35 years old, his bat may also be slowing down. His contact rates are down across the board, and his current line drive rate (16%) is the worst of his career. He’s never had great batting averages, and calling the cavernous Dodger Stadium home (.857 park factor for home runs in 2008) doesn’t make him any more attractive.
Chase Headley – There’s some news in Padre-land, and it’s important to their third-base situation. Huge first-base prospect Kyle Blanks (6’ 6”, 270 lbs) is taking fly balls in left field, meaning that the team is at least considering pushing Headley back to third, and Kevin Kouzmanoff to a reserve role. The good news about Headley is that he’s cut down his strikeouts and is swinging less at balls outside the zone. There’s no number that leaps out and says that he’s been unlucky, but if he continues his natural progression and walks more like he did in the minors, he still has major upside.
Scott Rolen – Rolen may actually be the best short-term replacement for Aramis Ramirez. His BABIP is a tick high (.326) and his fly ball percentage a tick low (38.5%), but the best news is that he feels healthy and his lineup is providing him many ducks on the pond. The biggest worry, his 32% line drive rate, can’t be seen as too much of a negative. Sure, it’s a little high, but at least he’s seeing the ball well. As the line drive rate comes down, perhaps the fly ball rate will increase. Either way, he’s a solid run-producer that should put up the best batting average of the possible replacements.
6
Chris Coghlan could be a nice band-aid while he is hot as well….probably not as good of a power option, but the steals and average will provide some value.
I should have added something there at the end of the Rolen graph: “….until he gets hurt.”
Got to feel sorry for those Aramis owners out there counting on his reliable 25-100 and .290 BA. If it were a replacement for the whole season, Beltre is clearly the safest pick, but if it’s only for a month, Fontenot or Rolen may be better bets.
That was me….but I would have to trade for Beltre, Fontenot and Rolen in the league I’m in….sticking with Andy LaRoche, who was my backup anyway.
What do the Cubs have to use to get anyone?
Ray: the system is pretty barren past Smardzjia and Vitters, so I doubt they’ll go the trade route. They’ll just put Fontenot out there, and Freel, and hope that Lee rediscovers his bat. It’s only a month.
R M : I was going to go deeper, but Andy LaRoche is still probably a better pick than someone like Bill Hall (his BABIP indicates his average will continue to decline) or, if your league is deeper, Adam Rosales (when will Edwin return?).
I’m hoping it will be Gamel-time sooner rather than later, but will tough it out with Coughlan since Maybin has been demoted. Scutaro is eligible at 3B but I’m thinking until Alexei starts performing, he needs to stay at 2B.
Fontenot hits left handed pitching so poorly that he’s essentially unusable against them and in fact will probably sit vs lefties. His numbers against RHP are very strong and if you have the roster space to pair him with someone you could have good production at the position. Rolen seems to me the best single replacement for Ramirez.
Blake’s numbers are improving after a start in which he seemed to either homer or make an out in every AB. Most people that were deriding Blake, however, were not paying attention to a BABIP that was down around .230. His road BABIP is still extremely low at .206 and bound to improve.
Out of all these guys, Blake is actually the one likely to hit the most HR this year and he will probably have guys on base in front of him, with the 3-6 hitters (pre-Manny’s return) being Ethier/Loney/Martin/Kemp. Also, given that he generally has a late season slowdown, Blake makes sense as a pick up with Ramirez on the DL and then a cut at the end of the season.
Dunno, I still like him the worst of the bunch. His BABIP is now .290 overall, and BABIP is correlated with line drive rate. His liner rate of 15.1% is the worst of his career. Seen alongside his contact rates within and without the zone (all in three-year declines), I see a guy who is was passable at his peak and is now squarely post-peak.
A .290 BABIP is hardly mind blowing, and suggests he is normalizing. Further, if you look at the article on Howie Kendrick, you’ll note that Dodger Stadium is in the bottom third for classifying LDs, meaning they skew toward calling them fly balls. Also, you really can’t deny the power he has been showing.