Arguing with Myself: Brett Lawrie
Several years ago I wrote an article for an old blog in which I literally argued with myself about Jimmy Rollins. I played the role of both the bull and the bear and imagined these two selves having a debate. I suddenly remembered that article while wondering what to write about for today’s post and thought it may be entertaining to try it again. As you read through the dialogue, try to figure out which side, if any, I am actually on and let me know in the comments if you were right. So, without further ado, I present to you Bull Mike and Bear Mike arguing about Brett Lawrie‘s 2012 fantasy value…
Bull: Brett Lawrie!!@@11!! He’s one of the top prospects in baseball!
Bear: Calm down dude. He was ranked just 40th in Baseball America’s pre-season top 100 prospects list. Do you really think 292 excellent Triple-A at-bats should vault him that much higher?
Bull: Yesssss. He wOBA’d .460 and jacked 18 homers, with a .308 ISO during his stay!
Bear: Woah there cowboy. Sure, sure he was quite impressive. But, this was in the PCL, in a park that literally inflated every aspect of offensive production. Oh, and is it any coincidence that his performance represented an enormous surge from his previous two seasons in Double-A and Triple-A, where he combined to hit just 2 more homers in 634 additional at-bats?
Bull: He was just a baby man! He was only 19 in 2009 and 20 in 2010, so he was still improving as a hitter and power frequently develops last. His 2011 season, in which his power surge even carried over to the Majors, I might add, is exactly what you want to see from a top prospect. Getting better as he climbs the ladder.
Bear: I don’t know, that sure is a huge increase in power, I cannot believe he could sustain anywhere near that level next year.
Bull: He doesn’t have to! He is already a fly ball hitter (44.9% fly ball rate in 2011) and makes average contact, which is actually pretty good for a power hitter. So even a decline in HR/FB ratio to the lower teens will still allow him to knock out home runs in the mid-20 range.
Bear: We still cannot completely ignore his sub-.200 ISO marks in 2009 and 2010. Heck, his Double-A ISO was just .164 in 2010! How many times have we seen a hot prospect breakout in half a season in Triple-A, kick butt in a small sample after being promoted to the Bigs, and then flop the following year? We have to remain cautious with (almost) rookies.
Bull: Whatever. We haven’t even talked about his speed yet. In his professional career, he has stolen 69 bases in 1,596 plate appearances, which prorates to 26 steals over a full 600 plate appearance season. Just like David Wright in his glory days!
Bear: Well, of course, you have neglected to mention Lawrie’s caught stealings, of which he had 29 of them. That gives him a 70% success rate, which borders on harmful to the team. You think he will be allowed to run as much with the Jays given his apparently mediocre base-stealing skills?
Bull: Speaking of neglecting, you conveniently left out the fact that he stole 7 bases in 8 chances during his short time with the Jays. Maybe he learned a thing or two? Either way, he clearly had no problem continuing his theft-happy ways.
Bear: Bottom line is that we love to try unearthing the next big thing and after Lawrie’s breakout 2011 campaign, it is easy to see how he has become a sensation. Don’t get sucked in and ignore the red flags in his history, as he could break the hearts of many a fantasy owner.
Bull: Lawrie is the exception. His five-category contribution potential is rare and places a floor under his fantasy value. He may not yield a profit depending on your league, but he appears to be much safer than the typical hitter who just barely qualified for rookie status the previous season.
So how do I actually feel about Lawrie?
Since it would be a cop out to say I’m in the middle, I will tell you I lean closer to the Bull side. Obviously, Lawrie won’t sustain the type of power he displayed in Triple-A or with the Jays in 2011. It is also hard to completely buy into such a power spike given his lackluster showings in previous seasons. However, as the Bull said, he is still very young, and Lawrie’s breakout is exactly what you want to see from the next superstars while they are still in the minors. I think the most intriguing aspect of Lawrie’s game for fantasy purposes is the speed. A third baseman who’s a real threat for 20/20 is exciting and makes it tougher to predict he’ll be a bust or not earn close to what most owners paid for him.
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Mike, thanks for this interesting piece. Out of curiosity, in a dynasty league how would you rank Lawrie, Kipnis and Ackley? Also do you think Lawrie will stay in the infield, as a move to OF would impact his value.
I really can’t comment on his defense. I’m not sure if you want me to rank the 3 against each other or in general against all players. Against each other, the order should be how you have it.
As a Jays fan, the thing that struck me about watching Lawrie’s early success was his pitch recognition/ability to lay off tough pitches. Kind of a relief after watching Snider.
You left out a huge part of the equation here when looking at his AA numbers.
I think it’s safe to say the power is for real when you factor in that as a 20 year old everyday player in AA (which would make one of the younger regulars at that level) He produced 66 extra base hits in 135 games (yes, 66) including 18 triples and 36 doubles. This is just an astonishing number. One also must factor in that at 345 feet down the left field line at Joe W. Davis stadium it probably is not the most favourable of conditions for a right-handed batter.
The guy is an absolute beast in the making. Sure he had trouble finding a position (which might have accounted for his lower prospect rating) but it’s pretty clear some of it had to do with his perceived attitude problem.
Even if the guy gets moved to a corner OF position down the road it’s pretty obvious that the kid is about to devastate major league pitching.
60 extra base hits…36 doubles, 16 triples, 8 homers = 60, not 66.
By way of comparison, Mark Trumbo had 70 extra base hits in 2010. Eric Hosmer had 72. Mike Moustakas had 77. Paul Goldschmidt had 80.
So? They’re all great prospects. What’s your point?
Hosmer played a majority of 2010 in rookie and high A ball so that comparison is a bit weak. Lawrie played 2011 in AAA and MLB.
Hosmer in 2011 had 47 extra base hits, I know a majority was in the show, but just sayin.
Lawrie almost single handedly vaulted me into first place late last year, so I like him, but everytime I think about drafting him early, the image of Gordon Beckham pops up in the back of my mind and makes me cry.
Literally inflated, eh? 8^)
Lawrie was the youngest of these guys to do it…well hosmer was the same age but he put up half of his #’s in A ball.
Regardless of Hosmer’s obvious talent there’s no reason to believe Lawrie’s power isn’t for real. 60 x-base hits with 16 triples is still a ridiculous number at that age….his numbers will only look more impressive as he becomes a more patient hitter.
I think most of us are going to find that the Brewers got absolutely fleeced in the Marcum deal. But that’s just me.
Better be Bull Mike cuz BRETT LAWRIE IS THE REAL DEAL HOLYFIELD!!!!!! Majority of his AB’s were in the bottom 3rd. It’s scary to think what he could do with Bautista hitting behind him.
Lawrie is a definite stud, however unless you are in a dynasty or keeper league be careful what you pay for him. Like most young players I expect him to have his struggles this year. However long term he looks like a good bet to become an elite player.
As for BA’s ranking of Lawrie last year, I thought that was junk. I had him as a top five prospect in all of baseball (and that was while he was still in Milwaukee).
Finally, regarding his defense, it was a lot better last year than almost anyone was expecting. Some very smart people are saying they believe he will win a gold glove at 3B one day (not that winning a gold glove should be the standard for anything but you get my point).
I always thought that BA ranking was way too conservative. Defense aside his bat tool is so advanced for his age he definitely deserved top 10-15.
He is a special athlete, baseball is almost too boring for him with his athleticism and energy.
David Wright comes to mind as a reasonable comp (the good version) for the next 3-5 years.
I think David Wright is a great comparison (except I have no idea how his defense is. I’ve never watched a Mets game). In the little time that he spent up in the majors, Brett Lawrie showed all five tools at an elite level. He had gold glove fielding, his arm from 3rd to 1st was a cannon, he’s destructive on the basepaths (see: triples, stolen bases), hit for a + average and showed great power. He also showed the non-5-tool tools, like awareness in the field (throwing out the guy at 3rd or 2nd instead of 1st, tagging guys in between bases) and decent plate discipline.
I know it’s a very small sample size to go off of and regression is almost a sure thing but at this point if I was going to give an absolute ceiling/complete best case scenario, I see Ken Griffey Jr with more triples and more steals. Note that I’m not comparing him to Griffey, I’m just saying that if Lawrie reaches his absolute ceiling, he could end up in that realm.
Best player to enter the AL since Evan Longoria.