Arizona Fall League Update
Let’s have a look around the Arizona Fall League, a developmental league for prospects that either A) Need a bit of fine-tuning before reaching the Majors, B) Need extra work after missing a chunk of the ‘09 season due to injury, and/or C) Are being considered for inclusion on the 40-man roster this winter.
Stephen Strasburg, RHP, Washington
As you’ve probably already heard, Strasburg (The No. 1 overall pick in June’s amateur draft) won his first official pro appearance last week. The right-hander pitched 3.1 scoreless innings and allowed just two hits and one walk. He struck out two batters but, more importantly, he recorded all eight of his in-play outs via the ground ball. A pitcher with a dominating repertoire and a significant ground-ball rate will have a lot of success. ETA: Mid-2010
Chia-Jen Lo, RHP, Houston
The 23-year-old reliever rose to double-A in his first pro season. Lo, a Taiwan native, is leading the AFL in strikeouts with six in four innings of work spread over two outings. He is also inducing a solid number of ground balls. Lo has a fastball that can touch 95 mph, as well as a splitter, slider and changeup. He should be on your watch list and a sleeper candidate for drafting in keeper leagues. He has the potential to be a future closer or set-up man. ETA: Mid-2010
Mike Stanton, OF, Florida
Stanton is swinging a hot bat despite ending the year with modest contact rates in double-A. The outfielder is currently hitting .533 (tied for third in the league) through four games. He has eight hits in 15 at-bats, including a homer. He’s struck out six times and has stolen three bases in as many attempts. If Stanton can improve his base running to the point where he can provide 10-15 steals a season, it will increase his fantasy value. ETA: Mid-2011
Chris Heisey, OF, Cincinnati
Heisey just won’t stop improving. The Cincinnati Reds’ outfield prospect is tied with Stanton in batting average through 15 at-bats. He also has four extra base hits, two walks and a stolen base. Heisey could join fellow youngsters Drew Stubbs and Jay Bruce in the Reds 2010 opening day outfield. ETA: Early 2010
Dustin Ackley, OF, Seattle
The second-overall pick in the ‘09 draft, like Strasburg, is making his pro debut in the AFL. Ackley has five hits in 10 at-bats (.500) with one double. He has also stolen a base and has yet to strike out. ETA: Early 2011
Struggling: Some of the big names that are scuffling early on, include: Chris Parmelee (.000 in 10 at-bats), Brandon Allen (.118), Matt Dominguez (.154), Jason Castro (.167), Yonder Alonso (.167) and Buster Posey (.167).
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Can you draw meaningful conclusions on a pitcher’s GB rate on 3.1 outs? Even Jered Weaver and Justin Verlander have had games this season where they got more groundouts than flyouts, and Halladay and Cliff Lee have had the opposite on occasion.
I also think it’s absolutely absurd to say that GB rate is more important than strikeout rate. I’m not sure if that’s what you meant in the Strasburg bit but that’s what it read like.
A dominating repertoire + a significant GB% = a very good pitcher is what I stated above… A dominating repertoire will lead to lots of Ks… So what I was saying is K+GB=Awesome…. Not GB-K=Awesome.
Can you draw a meaningful conclusion from 3.1 innings? I don’t think anyone who writes here would even entertain the thought… I think you can safely assume a post regarding a prospect’s excellent first appearance = A really nice start, but beware of sample size. I don’t think we need to write out the sample size warning every time we make a comment.
I just took the “but more importantly (than the two strikeouts) were the eight groundouts” to mean than groundballs were more important for a dominating pitcher than strikeouts, which I don’t think is true, and I don’t think anyone should think is true. But given the huge preference lately, for sabers and trads alike, for groundball pitchers, it wouldn’t surprise me if someone did think that.
I can’t wait until we get some pitch f/x data on him so we can take a look back at the absolutely ridiculous hype that surrounding him before the draft. The expectations that people had / have for him are just not fair: Joel Zumaya’s fastball, Randy Johnson’s slider, Greg Maddux’s control, and Roy Halladay’s GB%. You can’t expect that of anyone, college numbers be hanged. I actually read a scouting report that said that his fastball “sat comfortably around triple digits, but perhaps he ought to gear it back to 96-98 to get more movement and to preserve his arm.” The same report said his slider was 93 mph. People who don’t know any better said that that’s about where Randy’s was in his prime, but it never was. Nor was JR Richard’s, who people love to claim had a 100 mph heater and a 93 mph wipeout slider. It’s just not the case. Guys like Ubaldo Jimenez and Justin Verlander throw a baseball about as hard as a starter can throw, and even then, they “only” average 96. The thought that Strasburg’s breaking ball averages 90+ is ludicrous, too. Anyone who has seen a video of him throwing it once can tell you that it’s much close to 80 mph than 90 mph, and much closer to a curve than a slider. I also guarantee that Strasburg’s command looked better in college than it actually is because of the quality of competition not being able to hit his great stuff.
Not that I’m trying to get down on the kid. If he comes out throwing 94 with decent command and can spin a curveball, he’ll be absolutely fine and instantly be the ace of the Nationals. I’m just perturbed at how the scout/media interaction works every time there is a good prospect.
One scout says one time: “I saw a very hot gun read 102 in the 5th inning.”
That turns into: “He touches 102 regularly.”
That turns into: “He sits at 99 and carries that velocity through 100 pitches.”
It’s just not fair to him, or Nationals fans (and let’s face it, they don’t need to be let down again). His fastball probably sits at 96, tops, because that’s about as hard as anyone has ever been able to throw as a starter. His control probably is fine but not Roy Halladayish yet because he’s 22 and 22 year olds with great fastballs usually don’t have walk rates under 2.
He is what he is: a very, very exciting pitching prospect. But let’s not get ridiculous about it and expect him to strike out 10 a game with 1 walk and 55% groundballs in his first year.
No Scott Sizemore shout out? He’s making Polanco look more expendable with his hot start in the AFL.
How about some love for this kid Grant Desme? He’s leading the AFL with 6 jacks, which by itself doesn’t say much, except the kid up up 31 HR and 40 SB between half season stints at A and A+ this year (260AB and 230AB respectively), putting up a .304 average in A+. More importantly, he’s with the A’s and has a decent chance earning a spot over Hairston or Sweeney. Think those numbers deserve a little bit of hype…