Comments on: Believe in Jay Bruce

By: BenJ

BenJ — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 18:57:14 +0000

David, as one commenter already suggested, you’re way out of line with the LD% scorer bias comment. Particularly since you’re citing BIS data, where over a dozen different scorers rotate games every night. Whoever is scoring the Reds game one night might be scoring the Orioles the next day and the Dodgers the day after that.

Bruce probably was a bit unlucky this year with getting hits to fall between fielders (and I hope he was, for the sake of my keeper league team), and you’re absolutely correct that objective data will improve the accuracy of our assessments (in theory, at least). However, I wouldn’t blame scorer bias where it doesn’t exist, or at least when you can’t cite evidence that it exists.

By: Fantasy Alpha

Fantasy Alpha — Sat, 31 Oct 2009 23:56:37 +0000

I expect Bruce’s ADP to be well over 100 everywhere except the smartiest of the smart pants expert drafts. Last year, he was a hot play around the 6th and 7th round. This year, no one with a modicum of common sense will fail to penalize him a couple rounds – at least.

The 7th-10th rounds are tpyically spent getting SP and closers. Putting Bruce after that makes him an 11th rounder – ADP 110-121 in most leagues.

By: MPC

MPC — Sat, 31 Oct 2009 15:20:20 +0000

See the post below mine.

By: Jimbo

Jimbo — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 23:16:15 +0000

In terms of 2010 draft, I wonder how “hyped” bruce will be. When I consider other players likely to go near bruce, one comparison comes to mind–Adam Lind. Everyone knows who he is by now, but in 2009 Lind ACTUALLY PUT UP the stats Bruce owners would hope for next year. Over .300 avg, 35 hr, 114 rbi. Yet I won’t be surprised to see Bruce taken before Lind in many drafts, including my own.

Personally, I can see the affection people have for Jay Bruce. I can see where he’s grown and how much potential he has. But I can’t figure out why he’d be a better draft pick than Adam Lind (if I’m accurately estimating their draft positions). In the first 10 rounds, I’m more concerned with reliability than upside. Bruce might be better than Lind next year, but Lind has proven his skills at this level.

Anyone have an over/under for where Bruce *should* go? He went in the 9th round of my league draft in ’09 (11 team 5×5, no keepers). If he’s around inthe 7th I’ll be shocked…but I’ll also be a Bruce owner.

By: Big Oil

Big Oil — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 15:37:34 +0000

Bingo. I don’t know if he’ll get to Justin Upton’s level, but he might (minus steals, as others have mentioned)

By: BStal11

BStal11 — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 14:36:11 +0000

Check out Hardball Times xBABIP calculator. Bruce’s current numbers get him to an expected BABIP of .293, which would have given him a batting average of .275 for the season. And that is WITH the decreased line drive rate!

(http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/simple-xbabip-calculator/)

By: R M

R M — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 06:31:29 +0000

There are times when it is foolish to not look beyond an oversimplified statistical correlation. I would say this is one of those times.

By: MPC

MPC — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 04:58:45 +0000

BABIP isn’t very closely tied to LD%.

By: MarkInDallas

MarkInDallas — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 01:29:59 +0000

Bruce’s LD% would suggest a drop in BABIP to about .250, so .225 is probably due to a bit of bad luck. However, simply dismissing the smoking gun because it doesn’t jive with your view of Bruce’s talent is a bit weak.

By: Andrew

Andrew — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 23:40:22 +0000

Samuel- Yeah, I agree that Bruce could hit .300 in the future. I guess it was a bit incorrect of me to characterize his batting average potential as “limited.” Even on the basepaths, I think he’s got the speed to steal 15+ if his instincts ever get that good. I was only thinking “limited” compared to his incredible HR-hitting, run-producing potential.