Big Z’s Loss of K’s
When Carlos Zambrano broke into the major leagues in 2001, he was the epitome of power pitching. The burly 6-5, 255 pounder pumped mid-90′s gas, and though he didn’t always know where it was headed, he racked up big strikeout totals. Zambrano punched out over 7 batters per nine innings between 2002 and 2003, before graduating into 8 K/9 territory. He whiffed 8.07 per nine in 2004 and 8.14/9 in 2006, before culminating at 8.83 K/9 in 2006.
However, as Big Z was racking up the K’s, his control was suffering. After walking about three-and-a-half batters per nine innings in ’04 and ’05, his BB/9 rocketed to 4.84 in 2006. Despite the higher strikeout rates, Zambrano’s controllable skills were headed in the wrong direction:
Zambrano’s Fielding Independent ERA’s, 2003-2006:
2003: 3.47
2004: 3.57
2005: 3.70
2006: 4.14
In 2007, Zambrano’s control took a (relative) step in the right direction, as he cut his walk rate to 4.20 batters per nine innings. However, that improvement seemed to come with a cost, as Zambrano’s K rate fell to 7.36/9. That shift produced further slippage in his FIP, as Big Z posted a career-high 4.58 mark.
Zambrano’s halted his rapidly ascending FIP in 2008, posting a 4.23 figure. He showed further improvement with the free passes (his 3.43 BB/9 was the lowest mark of his career), but Zambrano’s refined control came at the further expense of his strikeout rate. Big Z struck out a downright pedestrian 6.2 batters per nine innings, a far cry from his work just a few seasons prior.
While some might still categorize Zambrano as a power arm, he doesn’t really seem to fit the description anymore. Big Z once lit up the radar guns, but his fastball velocity has dipped in each of the past four seasons:
Zambrano’s fastball velocity, 2005-2008:
2005: 92.8 MPH
2006: 92.2 MPH
2007: 91.6 MPH
2008: 91.3 MPH
The 2008 version of Zambrano was at least more economical with his pitches. He posted his lowest pitches per plate appearance (3.80) and pitches/IP (16.0) since 2003. Big Z has also become more adept at getting batters to chase his offerings outside of the strike zone. His O-Swing% during his high-K 2006 season was 19.8%, but that figure climbed to 25.3% in 2007 and 25.7% this past season. With more pitches being thrown around the strike zone, batters seem less apt to lay off in hopes of coaxing a walk.
The combination of decreased velocity, K’s and walks leads one to believe that Zambrano is making an effort to show better control and put the ball around the plate more often. However, that improved command has significantly cut into his number of swings and misses generated. Once one of the more difficult starting pitchers to make contact with, Zambrano now ranks in the middle of the pack:
Zambrano’s Contact%, 2005-2008
2005: 77.9%
2006: 78.1%
2007: 78.8%
2008: 82.5%
It’s difficult to be very enthusiastic about the new, lower-octane Zambrano. Sure, his control is better. But he’s not going to be confused with Curt Schilling or Mike Mussina any time soon, and his whiff rate has dipped to the point where he’s actually below the NL league average of 6.99 in that department.
A pitcher can certainly be successful with a moderate K rate and worm-burning skills, but typically that sort of profile also requires the ability to paint the corners. Zambrano has improved in that regard, but his gains in the walk department still leave his control rating as just ordinary. When you combine a league-average K rate with a league-average walk rate, you get…a league average pitcher.
Still just 27, Zambrano has already accumulated nearly 1,400 innings on his right arm. That’s a Herculean workload, one that appears to be taken some bite off of his pitches. Courtesy of Baseball-Reference, we find that Zambrano’s most comparable player through age 27 is Ramon Martinez.
Like Zambrano, Martinez routinely crossed the 200-inning mark in his early 20′s, compiling plenty of strikeouts and walks along the way. However, such a massive workload at such a young age cut Martinez’s career short. Martinez’s major league career was effectively over by the age of 30 when his shoulder gave out, though he trudged on a little longer before calling it quits at 33. Perhaps Big Z finds his fastball zip this offseason, but all signs point to his days as a certifiable ace being over. As Martinez can attest, few youthful pitchers overcome such arduous innings totals to enjoy a lengthy career.
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Can’t believe you wrote the entire article without mentioning Dusty Baker. Is it now accepted wisdom that his chief baseball legacy will be the shredded arms of onetime aces?
Chris,
to your comments, I’ll just add this:
in his first year with the Reds, Baker led all managers in “slow hooks” and ranked 2nd in “long outings” (110+ pitches), according to the Bill James Handbook.
Baker’s starting staff had 4 pitchers in the top 30 in Pitcher Abuse Points, which attempts to measure the cumulative stress put on a pitcher by high pitch counts (Arroyo, Volquez, Harang, Cueto).
If I were Volquez or Cueto, I would literally hide from my manager.
I think the average fastball velocity you’re using is simplistic, particularly since Zambrano throws several pitches in the general fastball category.
I don’t think it can be used in that form to figure out if he arm is really wearing down. http://www.drivelinemechanics.com/2008/8/29/603653/comparing-carlos-zambrano found that Zambrano is throwing his splitter a significantly larger amount of the time, and it’s his slower fastball.
I’m not saying his arm isn’t wearing down, but I think it’s premature to decide his career is going to decay.
Pre,
Both the cutter and splitter are separate pitches on Zambrano’s pitch data.
I’m actually a writer for Driveline Mechanics, too, so I’m familiar with that Zambrano piece. And the article that Josh Kalk wrote does say,
“He also isn’t getting the same velocity he was with those pitches with his four seamer down one MPH and his cutter down half a MPH. ”
That pretty much jives with our data on this site.
The 4-seamer is down in speed somewhat, though an increase in 2-seam fastballs thrown accounts for some of the velocity difference.
I wouldn’t say that I’m predicting doom for Zambrano, but a tradeoff has been made in his K/9 and BB/9 ratios, and it’s not a good one.
Dave:
Good article, and I have been concerned with Z’s “more normalized” style of pitching. My only problem with the article is the comparison to Ramon Martinez. I guess I’m in the camp that says with a bigger guy comes a stronger likelihood that his arm can take a little more abuse. I could see comparisons between Gooden and Martinez due to their similar statures, but I can’t say I lump Z in with them. He’d eat them both as a mid-morning snack.
Scott,
That is something that I was wrestling with while writing that passage. I think that there are a number of statistical similarities between the two, but we just don’t know how body type will infuuence Zambrano as opposed to Martinez. Martinez was more of of a bean-pole type, to be sure.
Perhaps this is something I could attack via Baseball-Reference at some point.