Comments on: Brian McCann and Position Scarcity

By: Andross

Andross — Sun, 15 Mar 2009 03:50:21 +0000

Oh, and yeah, when you do that kind of positional modification, elite Catchers become like first round picks (well, let me clarify that, in 5×5, NL-only, ten teams, because my league is not everybody else’s league). For the purposes of knowing how to draft, though, I divided the modifier by two (not very scientific, but it looked better), which made a draft board that looked a lot like most draft boards I see on esteemed fantasy websites, so I kept it. And the prediction systems I used (CHONE and ZiPS) seem to love Pablo Sandoval, at least for his draft spot, who is a catcher in Yahoo leagues. He’s who I’m targeting at the position, just in case anyone cares.

By: Andross

Andross — Sun, 15 Mar 2009 03:46:22 +0000

That makes me feel special!
I independently came up with an almost identical solution when attempting to use a spreadsheet to quantify fantasy value! I did make a couple of modifications, though. I assumed a minimum PA and IP for players, even ones I didn’t expect to start, just for comparison’s sake. I also modified AVG, ERA, and WHIP by the expected number of playing time, which only made sense in my mind.
But that is pretty cool. Me and Tom Tango think alike :)

By: Jim

Jim — Fri, 13 Mar 2009 03:08:02 +0000

And who is this J.R. House guy the projection systems seem to love?

By: Jim

Jim — Fri, 13 Mar 2009 03:06:12 +0000

Could I make a request for an article on Kenji Johjima? Even though his BABIP was .233 last year, a full 60 points below his previous two seasons, none of the projection methods see his average or power returning to anything fantasy relevant. Why is that? His HR/FB dropped to nothing last year, but was that because of injury or has American pitching simply figured him out?

By: Brian Recca

Brian Recca — Wed, 11 Mar 2009 04:41:16 +0000

How about this strategy, drafting Wieters later and then pairing him with Ramon Hernandez?

Also Brian Joura you explained that Sandoval is not catcher eligible in every league, which is true. But what about leagues that he is eligible? Your left with a servicable group of catchers that include Doumit, Wieters, Iannetta, and Sandoval. All of whom are available in the 9th round or later. This way I can grab Jason Bay for example, and still have a good catcher.

Also I think it should be noted that catchers come and go very quickly. Look at last season for example, Kelly Shoppach and Mike Napoli pretty much went undrafted last season but were able to contribute. On the other hand guys like Ivan Rodriguez and Kenji Johjima flopped like a fish out of water last season. Unless your in a really deep league players like John Baker, Jesus Flores, J.R Towles, and even Kurt Suzuki will go undrafted. Any of these guys could contribute well without using a draft pick.

I don’t think many people will agree with me but last season I took Brian McCann in nearly every league in about the 7th or 8th round and I won every league I was in. I guess I’m hoping that Doumit will be my Brian McCann this year.

By: Choo

Choo — Wed, 11 Mar 2009 00:52:09 +0000

Applying the replacement player value at a specific position to all players at that position (and doing the same for all other positions) tells you everything you need to know about the true value of position scarcity. Tom Tango and a handful of posters covered this topic at his site a few years ago when discussing the proper way to convert projections into roto values. Tango archives everything, so I’m willing to bet the entire discussion is still accessible if you do a search at his site.

In a nutshell, the process goes something like this: Projections > Categorical Standard Deviations based on roto league parameters > Categorical Z-Scores > Z-Score Sum for each Player > Apply Replacement Value.

If you need dollar values, Sum all positive Z-Score values and Divide by Total League Dollars to get the dollars per Z-Score unit value. Once you have that ratio, multiply it by each player’s Z-Score and *bam* done.

By: Jeff

Jeff — Tue, 10 Mar 2009 17:41:36 +0000

Good article. I still don’t know why people argue against position scarcity. Even wainting until the 20th round for a Yadier, his stats do not compare to another hitter you would be getting in the 20th round (a Billy Butler or Adam LaRoche). So in a sense, you are still paying for position scarcity even in round 20. If you took his stats and put them on a OF or 1b, you would talking about a waiver-wire player (not even draftable).

By: Jim

Jim — Tue, 10 Mar 2009 17:24:05 +0000

Now they’re talking about Napoli not starting the season. Still though, he’s hit 16 homeruns and 20 homeruns in fewer than 270 at bats two separate times. I would say the power is more than legit. Like you said though, he has plenty of other quesiton marks.

By: Brian Joura

Brian Joura — Tue, 10 Mar 2009 12:03:31 +0000

All of the catchers you listed are better than Yadier but you also have to worry about timing their selection. Over at MDC owners are taking both Doumit and Iannetta earlier now than they were at the beginning of mock draft season. Certainly you’re not going to get either one of those as late as the 20th round and I would be surprised if you got them after round 12.

They can both provide excellent value from the catcher position.

There are a lot of question surrounding Napoli, including playing time and his ability to repeat what he did in 2008. Sandoval does not qualify in all leagues as a catcher and is unlikely to play there much in 2009.

By: Ron

Ron — Tue, 10 Mar 2009 08:04:08 +0000

I’d caution against using computers to project playing time and RBIs.