Comments on: Buy Low on Soto

By: David MVP Eckstein

David MVP Eckstein — Sat, 27 Feb 2010 23:05:31 +0000

I think you should expect big things from my man soto. Catchers not names Wieters/McCann/Mauer/Martinez are incredible fungible. You can get AJ Pierzynski in the 20th rd with a .285 avg and double digit dingers. Why not risk Soto at his current ADP (170ish)?

By: David MVP Eckstein

David MVP Eckstein — Sat, 27 Feb 2010 22:59:45 +0000

haha. Oh well…just tossing in my two sense and doing a little blog promotion in the process…

By: brent griffin

brent griffin — Wed, 03 Feb 2010 07:58:39 +0000

Like Jeff said, the LD% is something of a concern. 2008 he had a 21%, but 2009 was a career low 18.1. I agree the wrist could have something to do with it, but it could also be a huge indication that he will bounce back but not by much. I am just not sure.

By: Big Red Machine

Big Red Machine — Sun, 24 Jan 2010 04:40:34 +0000

according to a quick copy/paste in Word, blog article, 713 words… “comment” 929 words… just saying…

By: Phillip

Phillip — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 08:49:59 +0000

Game Of Inches did a great look at Soto’s 2009 in two parts.

Part 1 looked at the effect of the types of injuries Soto sustained on his hitting

http://gameofinches.blogspot.com/2009/09/geovany-soto-where-have-you-gone_08.html

Part 2 did some overlap analysis that was done in this post.

http://gameofinches.blogspot.com/2009/12/geovany-soto-where-have-you-gone-part-2.html

By: Jeffrey Gross

Jeffrey Gross — Sun, 22 Nov 2009 22:13:26 +0000

the fast, easy way is .120+LD

A guy with avg speed and a 20% ld rate has a .320ish xBABIP.

there is more on xBABIP at THT:
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/whats-the-best-babip-estimator/

Also, there is an xBABIP calculator here:
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/simple-xbabip-calculator/

By: Big Oil

Big Oil — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 22:27:48 +0000

Thanks Dan.

By: Samuel Lingle

Samuel Lingle — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 22:16:19 +0000

That method probably underestimates slugging a bit then since some of the bad luck he’s getting would probably be on line drives and fly balls getting caught more often when those would usually fall in for extra bases, right?

I suppose you could look at BABIP on each ball type and figure out how many more fly balls and line drives would drop in and compare that to XBH rates for each of them for that player, but that’s probably way too much work.

BABIP fluctuations probably don’t affect ISO too much anyway since ISO is so HR reliant, but I’d think they’d have at least a bit of a noticeable effect.

By: DanDuke

DanDuke — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 20:23:05 +0000

What I would do is use the formula for BABIP (H – HR) / ( AB – K – HR – SF). To find how many extra hits the guy would have with the new BABIP, plug in the new BABIP, hold all other variables the same, and solve for hits.

Take that new hit total divided by AB to get AVG.
Insert that new hit total into the OBP formula to get the new OBP.
SLG will just be AVG + ISO Slug. Since ISO wouldn’t change (assuming all new hits are singles), that simplifies the arithmetic considerably. So just add the new AVG to the current difference between AVG and SLG.

By: Big Oil

Big Oil — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 20:07:24 +0000

Well this comment can’t possibly disappoint based on the two above, right?

Dave, or anyone else who knows, I’ve been curious as to where/how you calculate projected slash lines based off of xBABIP rather than actual BABIP. Could you please explain this to me? I can’t seem to get the side of my brain charged with doing math-related activities going.