Comments on: Can Jake Peavy Bounce Back?

By: Jesus

Jesus — Sat, 14 Feb 2009 16:30:11 +0000

Well written Mr. Joura. I never would have expected Peavy’s strikeouts to increase as his innings increase to the 200IP level. Jesus forgives for your stating of the obvious.

By: Andy

Andy — Sat, 14 Feb 2009 06:13:37 +0000

I know it may seem rather superficial but does anyone have any concerns about Peavy pitching in the WBC? Last time he pitched in the classic his ERA for the season was over 4. Coincidence? Bad luck? Any opinions?

By: Jim

Jim — Sat, 14 Feb 2009 04:16:30 +0000

It depends on what your priorities are. If wins are important to you, Beckett may be the way to go. If ERA and WHIP, Peavy. Both are good for strikeouts. Beckett is more of an overt injury risk, but I am a little worried about Peavy’s sore elbow. I would probably keep Peavy regardless, because if the elbow is really healed, he is one of the game’s top pitchers.

By: Gregg

Gregg — Sat, 14 Feb 2009 00:59:54 +0000

I’ve had Peavy in a keeper league since 2005 and his numbers last year concern me. Away from Petco he’s way mortal and if he’s traded pretty much anywhere else, all numbers except for Ws should get worse.

Question, I have both Peavy and Beckett and we’re expanding our keeper league. If I have to choose which of the two to protect, who should it be? On the face of it, you might say Peavy, but Beckett’s underlying stats (esp. K/BB) were really superb last year.

By: Jim

Jim — Fri, 13 Feb 2009 20:26:09 +0000

Webb was never a power pitcher, so I would expect the innings to have quite the same effect on him.

By: Jim

Jim — Fri, 13 Feb 2009 20:23:08 +0000

So he definitely didn’t get better after hihs time off. The last time his FIP was that high was when he supposedly had the wrong prescription contacts and couldn’t see right. And it was’t even that high then. His fastball velocity wasn’t down last year, but his slider, cutter and curve were all down 2-3 MPH. Is this a strategy thing or could it be because of the elbow? It seems kind of odd, because they were all incredibly consistent the 3 years before 2008.

Also, the more pitchers you mention, the more it makes me wonder. Santana has also showed signs that his innings load may be getting to him. Take this Peter Bendix article that I found:

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2008/7/7/566003/has-johan-santana-gotten-w

his velocity has been down, his K rate has been down, and his BB rate has gone up ever so slightly. His FIP’s the past 2 years have been considerably higher than any other time in his career.

By: Brian Joura

Brian Joura — Fri, 13 Feb 2009 19:45:37 +0000

Yes, Zito is on the list at #6. But Webb is #3 and Santana is #4 so I’m not sure we can draw any conclusions other than that are a number of pitchers who have thrown as many or more IP than Peavy.

You asked for pre and post-elbow FIP data. Using just BB (no HBP or IW) and a 3.2 league factor, I get a 3.51 FIP before the DL stint and a 3.62 FIP after he came back.

By: Jim

Jim — Fri, 13 Feb 2009 19:15:17 +0000

Still, he has pitched an awful lot of innings. Zambrano is already on the decline, and I would venture a guess that Zito is also on that leaderboard, and he flamed out before the age of 30.

What were his before/after FIP? That would convince me more than ERA.

By: Clayton

Clayton — Fri, 13 Feb 2009 19:00:13 +0000

That approach hasn’t worked for Roy Halladay, in fantasy or real-life.

By: Mitch

Mitch — Fri, 13 Feb 2009 18:35:13 +0000

I don’t see Peavy as a huge injury risk, but his 4-year decline in K/BB is troubling from a fantasy perspective. A couple years ago he mentioned in a pre-season interview [can't find the link, sorry] that he was going to try to reduce his pitch counts and pitch later into games, implying that he would prefer a 5K complete game over 12Ks in 6 2/3 IP. Smart, but not so good for fantasy owners.