Can Markakis Make The Jump to 30-HR Guy?
Usually when a player adds 50 points of OPS to his ledger he sees an increase in his fantasy value. But Nick Markakis saw his OPS go from .847 to .897 and lost nearly $4.00 in production in 2008 according to the RotoTimes Player Rater. Markakis saw the reduction due to a 25-point drop in RBIs and a net loss of eight steals. Still, his 136 OPS+ ranks 19th among all players in their age-24 season since 1990 and marks a player that still has room for growth.
Most of Markakis’ OPS jump came thanks to an increase of 38 walks. His BB% surged to 14.3 percent, the 13th-best mark in the majors. None of his other peripherals changed a significant amount, although his FB% dropped from 37.4 percent to 32.9 percent.
Given his track record over his first three seasons in the majors, Markakis is a decent bet to post a .300 average with 100 runs and RBIs. The question is what he can give owners in HRs and SBs. His 18 stolen bases in 2007 was a professional best for Markakis and since he was successful on just 10 of 17 attempts last year it is unlikely he will be a threat to steal 20 bags in 2009.
His age-based comps at baseball-reference.com show a mixed bag, with four of the 10 players eventually having at least one 30-homer season in their career. But it’s a depressing list for a player with broad-based skills like Markakis, with early flameouts like Ben Grieve, Ellis Valentine and Steve Kemp on the list.
In 2008, 28 players hit 30 or more home runs and only two had a FB% like Markakis of less than 35 percent – Josh Hamilton and Carlos Delgado. Hamilton had a HR/FB rate of 19.2 percent while Delgado had a 23.3 percent mark in the category. Markakis had a 12.6 percent rate. If he is going to take the next step and become a 30-homer guy, Markakis will have to hit more flyballs and/or hit a greater percentage out of the park. It seems a tall order given his track record in those categories.
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Please say your wrong. I spent the 35th pick in my keeper league on him last season. Thats the 2nd round becasue it was a 20 man league. I am banking on him anchoring my RF spot for years to come. Our league has OBP as a stat, so his lack of homers doesnt hurt as much, considoring the boost he gives me in OBP. Do you think his average and OBP will continue to be high like in 2008?
I think there’s no doubt that Markakis can hit for power and I think his doubles numbers prove that. But I agree that his GB% which hasn’t changed much in the past few years and even got worse towards the end of last season and unless that changes he’s not going to be a 30 home run guy. I also agree with Brian that he’s not going to steal a lot of bases.
I think his OBP is for real. He’s going to continue to be pitched like he’s a dangerous hitter and he’ll draw a lot of walks. He has excellent plate discipline too.
He’s definitely a very good player and personally, he’s one of the outfielder’s I’ll be targeting once the “big names” are off the board. If he makes some adjustments to get the ball out of the infield a bit more, you’re looking at a real stud, even without the stolen bases.
Nick Markakis is a great player, solid glove, steady arm, patient approach. I think the things that give him value to the O’s won’t translate to the fantasy world. He has never shown much power in the minors (27 HRs in 279 games) and his SLG% were never all that great until AA (33 games, .573 SLG%).
As an avid sim player, this is the kind of guy I would want, great D, OBP and average, plus young. But on fantasy I see him as a poor man’s Bobby Abreu, without the steroid era to ‘bulk’ up his HR totals.
There are certainly better OF options for 2009, but he is a good fallback option.
Jeff, i guess mark for chump is in order!!!!!
Well Jeff, I really don’t think you will be needing to worry about Markakis hitting 30 HR anymore. Hell, you don’t even have to worry about fantasy this year since you sucked so bad Yahoo won’t even allow you in a public league! Man you SUCK!!!!!!!!!
He ain’t all that. But after you trying to trade me that pile of cow dung for Longoria…I could see why you were doing it! Always trying to rip someone off with the dishonest ways you always use on people. Good riddance….now I can have MarkyMark